The Bluechip Problem

[sfchief]

I know don't post much, but hear me out.

I believe one of the biggest issues with picking late is getting blue chip players.

LT is good example there is no real solution for us this offseason, same w DE.

You can get lucky and hit on later picks although the percentages are against you.

So my question is how do we get around this, somehow philly has done it,
w a couple of down seasons and maximizing that draft capitol.

Tell me your thougths

[kccrow]

That's just the thing... We cannot compare us to Philly. The situations were nothing alike. They sucked ass in 2021 to the tune of the #6 overall pick that they were able to turn into two #1s with a trade down with Miami. They had a premium tradable asset in Wentz they flipped for another #1. All 3 of the picks they had in 2022 in Round 1 were top 20. They flipped one for AJ Brown and another to move up for Davis. The other they essentially spun into a 2023 1st Round pick and 2024 2nd round pick with the Saints trade. That 18th pick turned into the 10th overall pick that they used to move up for Carter at 9. They sucked enough the year following their SB loss to us to get another top 25 pick, at 22.

So all the dick-sucking of their drafts in the world doesn't even come close to comparing to us as a franchise. They aren't even remotely similar. The Bills, Ravens, and 49ers might be the closest comparisons to us in recent history and I don't see any of them loading up on blue-chip prospects either.

If you want to get a blue chip guy from where we pick, you have to have the balls to dump some picks and go get one or you have to trade a blue chip guy away hoping you get enough return to get lucky enough to potentially land two. Neither are amazing options. Usually, both end in a net loss.

One thing we don't do here is draft and develop backup QBs that can potentially be aces up your sleeve later on. It's the one component that drove the Patriots dynasty.

I do champion trading away picks to get solid players at pillar positions. It's the only way we're going to get one sans sucking shit for a year.

[sfchief]

YEP THOSE ARE GOOD POINTS.


15-20 era for a team with a good scouting department is the sweet spot but you need to capitol to get there. Hill trade allowed us that and we made the most of it.

Hopefully Veech can get some compensation for the players we loose I.E. tag and trade Smith.

[Dunerdr]

No ones perfect but KC has done an admirable job aquiring talent with what they have had available. If the Oline didn't have a historically bad day and we just lost normally we probably wouldn't have these conversations at all. You draft what you can and transform you identity to match he personnel. Andy has been good at it thus far.

[Hoover]

We have a blue chip problem, but we have the best QB in the league. Best DT in the league. One of the best CBs in the league. Best TE in the league.

OK...

[Dunerdr]

I may be in the minority but I think Worthy and Rice showed enough to think one of them may end up considered a blue chip talent. The league is built for parity. You draft, blue chips turn you around, then you no longer get to draft where they are readily available. Ill be interested to see how the Lions shake out in a few years.

[Snerd]

When you draft at the low end of the rounds like the Chiefs always do, it obviously helps to have extra picks so that you can have more chances on hitting on some of them. Unfortunately we only have six picks for this draft (unless we pick up a comp pick, but that would probably be a 7th at the end of the draft anyway). Since we're probably not extending Trey Smith, what kind of draft capital could we get by tagging and trading him? I know we'd get a comp pick for him anyway, but I think that would be in next year's draft, correct?

Edit: just saw DJ's note on the main board that Smith's tag will be $25M. That will make it tough.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Dunerdr

I may be in the minority but I think Worthy and Rice showed enough to think one of them may end up considered a blue chip talent. The league is built for parity. You draft, blue chips turn you around, then you no longer get to draft where they are readily available. Ill be interested to see how the Lions shake out in a few years.

The Lions need to win quickly, IMO.

They have a 2 year window remaining because they AREN'T built around an elite quarterback. Goff can be very very good, but he needs the OL and weapons around him.

Meanwhile those guys are burning through their rookie deals and that defense is still spotty while the offense flamed out when it absolutely couldn't.

If they don't get it done in the next couple of years, they probably won't. Things are going to get much much tougher for them going forward. And Decker is 32 now at LT -- he's not getting younger, his cap hit doubles this year and they're not going to be in a position to replace him in the draft unless they decide to move Sewell over to LT.

St. Brown's in the final cheap year of his deal. Hutchinson is on the same timeline as Karlaftis and will need to get paid soon, same with Jameson Williams. Sewell's number TRIPLES next season. Alim McNeill's QUADRUPLES.

There are stormclouds on the horizon for Detroit. 2024 was a really important season for them, 2025 equally so. If they come out of both seasons empty handed, life's gonna start getting awfully tough for them. And they don't have a Mahomes to soften the landing.

[O.city]

Smart thing for the Lions would be to trade Decker and move Penei now. I dunno if they have the stones to do it though.

[O.city]

Every good team eventually runs into a "blue chip" problem. It's the scarcity argument. There just aren't that many true blue chip players.

We've developed ours pretty well. You need Rice and or Worthy (or ideally both) to turn into real monsters outside and you're sitting good.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Smart thing for the Lions would be to trade Decker and move Penei now. I dunno if they have the stones to do it though.

He'd have plenty of value.

An acquiring team would have him at about $15 million the next 2 years, $18 million in 2027. There's some surplus value there.

But they don't have a ready replacement for him and again, they really should focus on winning this year and next. I think they're probably better served to hang onto him.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He'd have plenty of value.

An acquiring team would have him at about $15 million the next 2 years, $18 million in 2027. There's some surplus value there.

But they don't have a ready replacement for him and again, they really should focus on winning this year and next. I think they're probably better served to hang onto him.

Yeah, they're pretty win now and in a weird spot with stuff like this.

I'd imagine they just keep the pedal down a bit, but I'd imagine they could get a 1 for Decker and with having Sewell who'd be an elite LT himself, you could extend the window a bit.