Royals 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread - Page 492

duncan_idaho · 10:01 AM

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Prison Bitch · 07-22-2013, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I am surprised at the negativity in here. The Indians and Tigers both lost two of three to start the second half. It was a pretty good weekend for us.

The sweep at Cleveland last week destroyed the season. Taking 2/3 from Detroit moved us from 8 back to 7 back. There are only 2 months left. The odds of us catchign them would be low even if we were even strength, which we're not

**DeezNutz** · 07-22-2013, 08:09 AM

Someone posted this in the comments section of the latest Star article online:

For the Royals to win the division, they need to play .680 ball from here out, and the Tigers cannot play better than .570 ball. Do this, and KC will win the division by a single game.

Yeah, mathematically "unlikely" to say the very least.

Nightfyre · 07-22-2013, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Someone posted this in the comments section of the latest Star article online:

For the Royals to win the division, they need to play .680 ball from here out, and the Tigers cannot play better than .570 ball. Do this, and KC will win the division by a single game.

Yeah, mathematically "unlikely" to say the very least.

It's cool, teams go 46-21 all the time, right? [/sarcasm]

tk13 · 07-22-2013, 08:14 AM

That's kind of an arbitrary stat. The Tigers aren't playing .570 ball now.

Nightfyre · 07-22-2013, 08:16 AM

Oh and winning the division will be easier than winning the wildcard by two full games. hehe.

**DeezNutz** · 07-22-2013, 08:19 AM

The Tigers are at .546, so .650 might do it.

The biggest points are 1. advanced metrics show that Detroit's win-loss record should be much different right now and 2. the Royals will have to go on an absolutely torrid run to become viable contenders.

Nightfyre · 07-22-2013, 08:20 AM

Even if the tigers go 32-33 on the rest of the season, they will end at 85-77.

the Royals need to go 40-27 just to tie that. That's .597 ball. They didn't even play that well in June.

**DeezNutz** · 07-22-2013, 08:25 AM

.597, which would make the Royals one of the best teams in baseball in the second half.

Nightfyre · 07-22-2013, 08:27 AM

It is not hard math. We should be sellers. Dayton does not have a week to figure that out.

tk13 · 07-22-2013, 08:33 AM

The Tigers are on pace for 88 wins, which is exactly what they had last year. That'd put us at 43-24 to tie.

I agree it's an uphill climb but I think there's zero chance we sell. 1) DM won't want to admit failure, 2) we play the Tigers 11 more times, and 3) the month of September is almost entirely against the Tigers, Indians and Mariners. And finishing against the White Sox.

Outside of all the Tigers and Indians games... after this week we only have two more series against teams with winning records, plus a makeup game against Tampa.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 07-22-2013, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I am surprised at the negativity in here. The Indians and Tigers both lost two of three to start the second half. It was a pretty good weekend for us.

+

Ned I say moore?

Nightfyre · 07-22-2013, 08:41 AM

One positive thing I will say: you can tell Brett has been working with Hos and Moose. If he can have a similar impact on Salvy/Esky/Butler/Gordon, the lineup will be extremely potent.

tk13 · 07-22-2013, 08:41 AM

The other interesting thing is those two series against winning teams are at home, as is the Rays makeup game. So is the Orioles series this week.

The only road games the Royals have left against teams with winning records are against the Tigers and Indians.

**DeezNutz** · 07-22-2013, 08:43 AM

Any of these other teams with equally unrealistic expectations are looking at their schedules, circling games against the Royals as opportunities to make up ground.

duncan_idaho · 07-22-2013, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke

+

Ned I say moore?

How I have grown to hate Ned's face and Dayton's stupid effing flattop.

12-11-2012, 09:59 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1889692	2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it? Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
Posts: 22,318

07-22-2013, 08:14 AM	#7369
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1657500	That's kind of an arbitrary stat. The Tigers aren't playing .570 ball now.
Posts: 56,593

07-22-2013, 08:16 AM	#7370
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $1368849	Oh and winning the division will be easier than winning the wildcard by two full games. hehe.
Posts: 18,647

07-22-2013, 08:20 AM	#7372
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $1368849	Even if the tigers go 32-33 on the rest of the season, they will end at 85-77. the Royals need to go 40-27 just to tie that. That's .597 ball. They didn't even play that well in June.
Posts: 18,647

07-22-2013, 08:27 AM	#7374
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $1368849	It is not hard math. We should be sellers. Dayton does not have a week to figure that out.
Posts: 18,647

07-22-2013, 08:33 AM	#7375
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1657500	The Tigers are on pace for 88 wins, which is exactly what they had last year. That'd put us at 43-24 to tie. I agree it's an uphill climb but I think there's zero chance we sell. 1) DM won't want to admit failure, 2) we play the Tigers 11 more times, and 3) the month of September is almost entirely against the Tigers, Indians and Mariners. And finishing against the White Sox. Outside of all the Tigers and Indians games... after this week we only have two more series against teams with winning records, plus a makeup game against Tampa.
Posts: 56,593

07-22-2013, 08:41 AM	#7377
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $1368849	One positive thing I will say: you can tell Brett has been working with Hos and Moose. If he can have a similar impact on Salvy/Esky/Butler/Gordon, the lineup will be extremely potent.
Posts: 18,647

07-22-2013, 08:41 AM	#7378
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1657500	The other interesting thing is those two series against winning teams are at home, as is the Rays makeup game. So is the Orioles series this week. The only road games the Royals have left against teams with winning records are against the Tigers and Indians.
Posts: 56,593