Royals 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread - Page 426

duncan_idaho · 10:01 AM

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

**lewdog** · 06-30-2013, 10:10 PM

Chris Davis hit his 31st homer tonight. No doubt he is juicing. Props to him.

BigCatDaddy · 06-30-2013, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Until Duffy/Paulino are ready. He's only really had one bad start in his last five starts. I think he gets a little bit of a bad wrap.

Could be that Hochevaresque ERA 5.55 and War of -1.4 also.

Also from today.

Left-hander Danny Duffy was sensational in his fifth 2013 appearance for the Storm Chasers as he put together his longest outing of the season, limiting the I-Cubs to only three hits in 5.2 innings of work. Duffy has not allowed a run in his last 12.0 innings for the Storm Chasers, and his last two outings since being optioned to Omaha on June 25 have resulted in shutouts.

tk13 · 06-30-2013, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog

Chris Davis hit his 31st homer tonight. No doubt he is juicing. Props to him.

Machado hit his 38th double too. That's absurd, it's June. Gordon led the entire league last year with 51.

**lewdog** · 06-30-2013, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

Machado hit his 38th double too. That's absurd, it's June. Gordon led the entire league last year with 51.

Yea he is ****ing insane! Fun player to watch. That doubles mark he has at this point is just absurd.

Prison Bitch · 07-01-2013, 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Could be that Hochevaresque ERA 5.55 and War of -1.4 also..

Fangraphs has him at a 0.9 WAR and a 4.12 XFIP.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...441&position=P

**gblowfish** · 07-01-2013, 08:20 AM

I'm on the road today, spent the night in Bentonville, Arkansas. Woke up this morning with this weird urge to cut the Royals payroll to $30 million....

Archie F. Swin · 07-01-2013, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

I'm on the road today, spent the night in Bentonville, Arkansas. Woke up this morning with this weird urge to cut the Royals payroll to $30 million....

lawlz

BigCatDaddy · 07-01-2013, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Fangraphs has him at a 0.9 WAR and a 4.12 XFIP.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...441&position=P

I got my numbers from ESPN. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/...957/wade-davis

I'm not sure how a 5.55 ERA, 1.81WHIP, and 328 batting average against is better than replacement level. I'm also pretty sure those numbers justify the "bad rap" he gets.

**DeezNutz** · 07-01-2013, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I got my numbers from ESPN. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/...957/wade-davis

I'm not sure how a 5.55 ERA, 1.81WHIP, and 328 batting average against is better than replacement level. I'm also pretty sure those numbers justify the "bad rap" he gets.

Mellinger called his Wade Davies today on 810, and I'm pretty sure that I'm going to steal that.

The -1.4 WAR is based on Baseball Reference's assessment, which seems far more accurate, given the player's line.

duncan_idaho · 07-01-2013, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I got my numbers from ESPN. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/...957/wade-davis

I'm not sure how a 5.55 ERA, 1.81WHIP, and 328 batting average against is better than replacement level. I'm also pretty sure those numbers justify the "bad rap" he gets.

Fangraphs' formula relies heavily on BABIP and FIP, I think. Davis' FIP is much lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is crazily high. So Fangraphs likes him a lot more than Baseball Ref (his K/9 is solid).

I like Baseball Reference's WAR stats for pitchers and Fangraphs WAR stats for position players. Each is screwy for the other stat, IMO.

BigCatDaddy · 07-01-2013, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Fangraphs' formula relies heavily on BABIP and FIP, I think. Davis' FIP is much lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is crazily high. So Fangraphs likes him a lot more than Baseball Ref (his K/9 is solid).

I like Baseball Reference's WAR stats for pitchers and Fangraphs WAR stats for position players. Each is screwy for the other stat, IMO.

Regardless I think we would be better off with Duffy in the rotation and moving Davis back to the pen to help with Herrera sucking it up this year.

Prison Bitch · 07-01-2013, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I got my numbers from ESPN. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/...957/wade-davis

I'm not sure how a 5.55 ERA, 1.81WHIP, and 328 batting average against is better than replacement level. I'm also pretty sure those numbers justify the "bad rap" he gets.

Fangraphs is superior to bbref. Davis has been hurt by bad luck this year. Fangraphs factors "leverage" into the equation and Davis has been unlucky with guys scoring whenever they're on base, whereas Guthrie was lucky in having them all stranded.

Of course as Fangraphs predicts, this is not sustainable and Guthrie's luck ran out this past month as it almost always does.

BigCatDaddy · 07-01-2013, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Fangraphs is superior to bbref. Davis has been hurt by bad luck this year. Fangraphs factors "leverage" into the equation and Davis has been unlucky with guys scoring whenever they're on base, whereas Guthrie was lucky in having them all stranded.

Of course as Fangraphs predicts, this is not sustainable and Guthrie's luck ran out this past month as it almost always does.

I see. I still don't think good pitchers have an ERA of 5.55 1/2 way through a season. I'd like to see Duffy get a crack at that spot.

Archie F. Swin · 07-01-2013, 10:00 AM

to dream.....

duncan_idaho · 07-01-2013, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Regardless I think we would be better off with Duffy in the rotation and moving Davis back to the pen to help with Herrera sucking it up this year.

Yes, if Duffy strings together a few more strong outings at Omaha, I think it's time to slide him into Davis's spot in the rotation.

Of course, there's no guarantee Davis can pitch the same way out of the bullpen that he did last year...

12-11-2012, 09:59 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1889692	2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it? Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
Posts: 22,310

06-30-2013, 10:10 PM	#6376
lewdog Mod Team Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Valley of the hot as **** Casino cash: $-1348100	Chris Davis hit his 31st homer tonight. No doubt he is juicing. Props to him.
Posts: 46,296

07-01-2013, 08:20 AM	#6381
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $16896178 VARSITY	I'm on the road today, spent the night in Bentonville, Arkansas. Woke up this morning with this weird urge to cut the Royals payroll to $30 million....
Posts: 41,011

07-01-2013, 10:00 AM	#6389
Archie F. Swin This is the way Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Wichita Falls, Texas Casino cash: $9975673	to dream..... __________________ "No Two People Will Do It The Same, You got It Down...When You Appear to Be In Pain!"
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