Royals 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread - Page 378

duncan_idaho · 10:01 AM

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Nightfyre · 06-10-2013, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Not what I'm saying at all.

Jim Johnson 2012- 51 for 54 in saves 2013- 21 for 25 in saves

Greg Holland 2012- 16 for 20 in saves 2013- 12 for 14 in saves

Give Holland 54 chances to close a game do you really think he ends up with 51 saves ?

The stat Jim Johnson really kicked ass in last year? BABIP.

Nightfyre · 06-10-2013, 03:59 PM

Meanwhile, this year, Holland is demolishing Johnson in pretty much every meaningful statistical categoy with a significantly worse babip. (Holland .348/Johnson .310)

Johnson's babip last year? .251. Good luck repeating that.

siberian khatru · 06-10-2013, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Not what I'm saying at all.

Jim Johnson 2012- 51 for 54 in saves 2013- 21 for 25 in saves

Greg Holland 2012- 16 for 20 in saves 2013- 12 for 14 in saves

Give Holland 54 chances to close a game do you really think he ends up with 51 saves ?

Yes, in any one season. For instance, Jim Johnson: He's already blown more saves this year than last, in half the opps. It doesn't necessarily take some extraordinary skill to do that in 2012, just opportunity and some luck.

And given Holland's skill set, sure, I could see him going 51-for-54 in one neat year.

duncan_idaho · 06-10-2013, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Not what I'm saying at all.

Jim Johnson 2012- 51 for 54 in saves 2013- 21 for 25 in saves

Greg Holland 2012- 16 for 20 in saves 2013- 12 for 14 in saves

Give Holland 54 chances to close a game do you really think he ends up with 51 saves ?

Johnson had a great season last year, but it's hard to look at it and not see some fluke nature present. It's similar to Greg Holland's 2011, when only 6 percent of inherited runners scored, a once-in-a-decade type fluke.

One thing that should be noted: Holland is 28/31 in save opportunities as the closer. His figures last year include three blown saves when he was the setup man (all of which involved inherited runners, something a closer almost never has to worry about).

At that conversion rate, he'd save 49 games (OK, 48.8) if given 54 opportunities. Very small difference from Johnson (3 percent).

Also, it's not like Johnson is continuing to convert at that 94 percent close rate he did a season ago. If he gets to the end of the year and is over 50 saves with another 90+ percent close rate, I'll give him props. But I'd bet on his conversion rate staying in the low 80s, like it is now. Which is nothign to be ashamed of but nothing really special either.

DJ's left nut · 06-10-2013, 04:18 PM

Don't ever change, Orioles fans.

I first experienced their like in late 2003, when discussions began on an extension for Albert Pujols. The Cardinals were a little worried about breaking the $100 million/barrier and there were significant concerns that the Cards would lose him when his team controlled years lapsed three seasons later.

So the Orioles fans started coming up with trade offers to do us a solid and take him off our hands for us. Afterall, WTF use would we have had for 3 years of Albert Pujols? (For the record, in those 3 years from 2004-2006, the Cardinals won 100+ games twice, 2 pennants and a World Series, so even had they not extended him, that was his value...)

I shit you not, they were building trade proposals around David Segui and Jay Gibbons. Guys were getting legitimately offended at the mere possibility of including Matt Riley or Jerry Hairston in the deal.

It ended up being shit like:

Segui
Bigby
Cust (and this was a huge concession)
Lopez
Ainsworth

for Pujols.

Orioles fans - they're classic. They're just completely out of touch with reality.

DJ's left nut · 06-10-2013, 04:20 PM

I knew we'd had this conversation before...

From the 2012 Royals Repository:

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Not enough players. Every Orioles fan knows that the way to get a good player is to give up a TON of really shitty players.

You'll need to include Chen and Getz, for starters. Brett Hayes, Tony Abreu and Irvin Falu are going to need to be in there as well, oh yeah, and Moscoso - because the Royals need an arm (everyone always needs an arm).

And don't forget Bourgeois, because the Orioles need some team speed and Terry Evans, because a good Orioles trade has to include a flash in the pan that can 'really recapture his form'. Finally, you'll need someone that you used to think might be good but clearly sucks...I'm thinking David Lough looks good and then another young AAAA prospect - afterall, the Orioles need to get younger (everyone always needs to get younger); Yowill Espinal should do that nicely.

So, here's a perfect trade for the Royals:

Hochevar
Francouer
Chen
Moscoso
Getz
Hayes
Abreu
Falu
Bourgeois
Evans
Lough
Espinal

for:

Jones (because they won't be able to re-sign him)
Bundy (hey, you gotta give to get)
Machado (he's blocked by Hardy, no room for him to play)
Gausman (he's closer to the show than Bundy and for this many immediate major leaguers that are in their prime years, we'll need someone that can contribute this year)

Then finally you'll need to decide that including Falu and Chen is too much to give up, but if they include Schoop or kick in some cash to cover Jones' salary, you'd probably go ahead and pull the trigger.

There's some good leadup to that one, but I was almost positive I'd mocked them for this sort of chicanery before.

Orioles fans - you guys just suck.

mr. tegu · 06-10-2013, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I knew we'd had this conversation before...

From the 2012 Royals Repository:

There's some good leadup to that one, but I was almost positive I'd mocked them for this sort of chicanery before.

Orioles fans - you guys just suck.

The leadup to that is terrific.

duncan_idaho · 06-10-2013, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

The leadup to that is terrific.

Was that the Billy Butler argument?

In which we were told he wasn't that good and we should be happy to get Jake Arrieta OR Brian Matusz (but not both!), Xavier Avery, and MAYBE Jon Schoop?

Prison Bitch · 06-10-2013, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I knew we'd had this conversation before...

From the 2012 Royals Repository:

There's some good leadup to that one, but I was almost positive I'd mocked them for this sort of chicanery before.

Orioles fans - you guys just suck.

That's what I was posting about earlier. I was in shock at the O's board and their absurd proposals for Butler and/or Myers. They thought they ddin't have to surrender anything. Other boards weren't absurd. So it had to be the O's morons. And you just destroyed their fanbase. I loved it. A highlight of the offseason.

mr. tegu · 06-10-2013, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Was that the Billy Butler argument?

In which we were told he wasn't that good and we should be happy to get Jake Arrieta OR Brian Matusz (but not both!), Xavier Avery, and MAYBE Jon Schoop?

That was the one. All they need to trade for Butler is Arrieta and a low A prospect. And if it is Schoop that should be all that was necessary. Schoop straight up for Butler.

**SAUTO** · 06-10-2013, 04:46 PM

Hopefully we end up with one more win than the O's. That's all I really want out of this season at this point.

We will never have to see that dipshit post in a royals thread again
Posted via Mobile Device

ShowtimeSBMVP · 06-10-2013, 04:49 PM

[QUOTE=duncan_idaho;9741995]Was that the Billy Butler argument?

Every fan base brings up dumb trades. Billy Butler is a good player but DH only players and Base to Base players don't have much value.

**SAUTO** · 06-10-2013, 04:51 PM

[QUOTE=ChiefsandO'sfan;9742040]

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Was that the Billy Butler argument?

Every fan base brings up dumb trades. Billy Butler is a good player but DH only players and Base to Base players don't have much value.

you are a ****ing dumbass
Posted via Mobile Device

Pepe Silvia · 06-10-2013, 04:51 PM

[QUOTE=ChiefsandO'sfan;9742040]

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Was that the Billy Butler argument?

Every fan base brings up dumb trades. Billy Butler is a good player but DH only players and Base to Base players don't have much value.

His BBQ sauce might give him some extra value, no?

**SAUTO** · 06-10-2013, 04:52 PM

5.5 games back of these assholes
Posted via Mobile Device

12-11-2012, 09:59 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1889692	2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it? Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
Posts: 22,310

06-10-2013, 03:59 PM	#5657
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $1368849	Meanwhile, this year, Holland is demolishing Johnson in pretty much every meaningful statistical categoy with a significantly worse babip. (Holland .348/Johnson .310) Johnson's babip last year? .251. Good luck repeating that.
Posts: 18,647

06-10-2013, 04:18 PM	#5660
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $-620901	Don't ever change, Orioles fans. I first experienced their like in late 2003, when discussions began on an extension for Albert Pujols. The Cardinals were a little worried about breaking the $100 million/barrier and there were significant concerns that the Cards would lose him when his team controlled years lapsed three seasons later. So the Orioles fans started coming up with trade offers to do us a solid and take him off our hands for us. Afterall, WTF use would we have had for 3 years of Albert Pujols? (For the record, in those 3 years from 2004-2006, the Cardinals won 100+ games twice, 2 pennants and a World Series, so even had they not extended him, that was his value...) I shit you not, they were building trade proposals around David Segui and Jay Gibbons. Guys were getting legitimately offended at the mere possibility of including Matt Riley or Jerry Hairston in the deal. It ended up being shit like: Segui Bigby Cust (and this was a huge concession) Lopez Ainsworth for Pujols. Orioles fans - they're classic. They're just completely out of touch with reality. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
Posts: 66,685

06-10-2013, 04:46 PM	#5666
SAUTO Shit Join Date: Jun 2008 Casino cash: $10039067	Hopefully we end up with one more win than the O's. That's all I really want out of this season at this point. We will never have to see that dipshit post in a royals thread again Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 55,715

06-10-2013, 04:49 PM	#5667
ShowtimeSBMVP Chiefs Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $1336009	[QUOTE=duncan_idaho;9741995]Was that the Billy Butler argument? Every fan base brings up dumb trades. Billy Butler is a good player but DH only players and Base to Base players don't have much value.
Posts: 23,832

06-10-2013, 04:52 PM	#5670
SAUTO Shit Join Date: Jun 2008 Casino cash: $10039067	5.5 games back of these assholes Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 55,715