Can someone explain positional value?

[Time's Yours]

Obviously, I get the basic concept. Quarterback is the most important position, fullback is the least. But what about everything in between? Why is a left tackle more important than a left guard or right tackle? Why not take an LB with a top-5 pick? What is the general heirarchy of positions?

1. QB
.
.
.
DE/DT/LT/HB?
.
.
.
22. Fullback
23. Kicker
24. Punter


Edit: I forgot my post requirements. Your and idiot, and Fire Herm!!!

[Buck]

IMO,
1-5. LT, LG, C, RG, RT
6. QB
7-10. DE, DT, DE

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I'd pay Tom Brady money to Ed Reed to have him on my team. Safety or not...

He is a "special talent" All bets are off when it comes to players of his caliber.

[FringeNC]

To win in the NFL, you have to be able to throw the ball effectively, and stop the other team from throwing, which means having a good QB, having a good LT, and having a good DE.

If you can't get to the QB, no lead is safe.

I did read some study that said the LT was overvalued though. QBs can take a pounding even with a good LT if the rest of the line sucks. But maybe the rest of the line sucking has a lot to do with coaching.

In retrospect, I think I'd rather have Jared Allen instead of Glenn Dorsey. We could have traded down and still got a LT.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by FringeNC

To win in the NFL, you have to be able to throw the ball effectively, and stop the other team from throwing, which means having a good QB, having a good LT, and having a good DE.

If you can't get to the QB, no lead is safe.

I did read some study that said the LT was overvalued though. QBs can take a pounding even with a good LT if the rest of the line sucks. But maybe the rest of the line sucking has a lot to do with coaching.

In retrospect, I think I'd rather have Jared Allen instead of Glenn Dorsey. We could have traded down and still got a LT.

It is too early to tell. DTs take 2-3 seasons to develop. Keep the faith!

[Time's Yours]

Originally Posted by FringeNC

To win in the NFL, you have to be able to throw the ball effectively, and stop the other team from throwing, which means having a good QB, having a good LT, and having a good DE.

If you can't get to the QB, no lead is safe.

I did read some study that said the LT was overvalued though. QBs can take a pounding even with a good LT if the rest of the line sucks. But maybe the rest of the line sucking has a lot to do with coaching.

In retrospect, I think I'd rather have Jared Allen instead of Glenn Dorsey. We could have traded down and still got a LT.

The best argument I've heard for that trade being good is that Allen wanted out and would've left the following season anyway.

[jettio]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Positional value is the degree to which having a player who is at least good and preferably great will improve your team's chances of winning relative to having simply an average player at such position or, conversely, the degree to which a mediocre player at such position will hurt your team's chances of winning.

QB is obviously #1 because they have more impact on more things than any other position on the field.

While kicker or punter may seem destiend for #24 becuase they play the least number of snap, I'd put them ahead of a position that can effectively be eliminated. FB, for example. FB is #24 on my list because you can substitute nearly anyone into that role and do a "serviceable" job.

Blind side tackle (usually left, because most QBs are righty) is a position where if you have a mediocre player, it can destroy you because one strip sack is enough to make a difference in the closely balanced NFL.

Conversely, pass-rushing DE or OLB has the same weight on the other side of the ball.

TAckles are generally more important than guards because they operate on the offensive line's edges, and if they need help, it must come from a TE or RB, which can mess up formation/play preferences. Centers are also ahead of guards because they set the pass protection. Guards can get help on either side, and don't need to make decisions, so they're less valuable.

TEs and RBs are involved in every play, so they are important. WRs less so because they don't impact as many plays in general. On running plays they have little/no impact or significance.

Defensively, pass rushers are first. Then I'd put linebackers and interior defensive linemen into the next tier down. Then cornerbacks, then safeties.

I guess I'd group them this way, more or less:

1. QBs
2. blind-side tackle and pass rushing DE/OLB
3. DL/TEs/RB/LBs/CB
4. OT/C/WR
5. Safety/Guard
6. P/K
7. FB

Of course, this whole thing is overly simplistic. A third WR mgiht be more valuable than a starting LB, in some ways, depending on the team's offensive philosophy.

I disagree about FB, seems like wherever an outstanding FB like T-Rich or Lorenzo Neal changes teams, the departed team loses more and the new team improves its W-L.

[beach tribe]

I know that FB is definitely no where near the top, or even 2nd tier as far as positional value, but I still don't understand why players such as L. Neal, or T Rich were so overlooked. These guys contributed as much, if not more than most Gs in the league. T Rich was invaluable on running plays. Like I said, I'm not advocating them being more important than any other position, but they are cheap, and effective, why the hell do teams let these guys walk all the time. If I were the Titans, L. Neal would have retired in TN. It's not like a team can't afford to keep these guys.

[Time's Yours]

Are tackles most important for run-blocking as well? Or is everything equal there?

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by phillip

Are tackles most important for run-blocking as well? Or is everything equal there?

Tackles are mainly more valuable because of pass protection, because the other teams best pass rushers are coming off the corners, and the best of those will be coming from the Offense's left. Considering the QB is right handed.

[Time's Yours]

Originally Posted by beach tribe

Tackles are mainly more valuable because of pass protection, because the other teams best pass rushers are coming off the corners, and the best of those will be coming from the Offense's left. Considering the QB is right handed.

I got that. I was just asking a side-question about the run game.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by phillip

I got that. I was just asking a side-question about the run game.

It just depends on the player, but it's really hard to determine because the value of the two positions are so far apart.

[greyhoodie]

It is kinda moot question as it is concept that is not part of Scott Pioli's drafting process.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by greyhoodie

It is kinda moot question as it is concept that is not part of Scott Pioli's drafting process.

Bullshit. You guys have had all the main pieces in place so he has been tinkering the last few years but his first few drafts proved it.

[cdcox]

This is an analysis that I did a while ago for a discussion in another thread that seems pertinent here:

An interesting question, even though I don't agree with a standard scale by position because it doesn't account for how well a player plays that position.

Nevertheless, I have calculated how the NFL values these positions based on draft order (see details below):


HB: 15.5%
FB: 0.3%
QB: 14.2%
WR: 4.8%
WR: 4.8%
TE: 5.4%
LT: 3.3%
LG: 1.1%
C: 1.7%
RG: 1.1%
RT: 3.3%
K: 0.4%
P: 0.1%
KR/PR (one guy): 0%*
FS: 6.9%
SS: 4.6%
LCB: 4.2%
RCB: 4.2%
SOLB: 3.7%
WOLB: 3.7%
MLB: 5.3%
LDE: 3.5%
RDE: 3.5%
DT: 2.2%
NT/DT: 2.2%

The first surprise is RB>QB this is a little misleading. RB burn up faster than QB so you have to draft them more often. The above numbers should be adjusted for average career length of a starter at the position.

The second surprise is Safties > CB. That just shocks me, but probably should not when you consider the number of teams using a cover 2 and how the rules have castrated CB play.

Thrid surprise is MLB/ILB > OLB. Sure the MLB is the most important spot in the 4-3, but a lot of your play makers and pass rushers come from the OLB spot.

Fourth surprise is TE > WR. I think TE are being over-valued in the NFL right now due to the TG and Gates effect.

Methology in next post.

[cdcox]

Methodology (only for the geeks):

I compiled a list of the players drafted in the first three rounds over the last 3 years. I chose the first 3 rounds because teams are looking for eventual starters in those rounds. Latter rounds are for backups and special team players. I used the last 3 years to get enough data to even out draft-class variations, while being recent enough to capture current trends.

I then assigned a value to each player based on the NFL Draft value chart. This goes from 3000 points in the first round down to 116 points for the end of the 3rd round. I then totaled the number of draft value points for each position over the 3 year period. I then made some additional adjutments based on the fact that you field 1 QB but 2 guards, etc. I also made the following groupings:

MLB = MLB + ILB
DT = DT + NT

There was no way to separate Left/Right Tackle, Guard, DT, DE, OLB, or CB.

The numbers are a little skewed since the above positional alignments are based on standard proset offense and 4-3 defense. Many times an offense lines up with 2 RB or 2 TE or 3 WR instead of a FB. Also there are 3-4 defenses and nickle packages. These would slightly change the value assignments.