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Old 09-16-2008, 06:04 PM  
FringeNC FringeNC is offline
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Being a SB contender = having a top 10 passing attack
Are there really any exceptions to this? Sure, sometimes a team wins the SB without one, but it is luck, and they are certainly not a favorite going into the next year.

Play-not-to-lose football is DEAD.
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:31 PM   #31
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Want to know the real secret?

Superior talent wins games.
So I guess this means Oakland is not going to the Superbowl this year
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:33 PM   #32
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Prove to me that since 95 more teams have won WITH a franchise QB than a journeyman QB...
My guess is those teams that had a franchise QB and won it were big time favorites going into the season, and those that didn't have one weren't, and never made post-season noise again.
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:33 PM   #33
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Vegas odds-makers would laugh at you.
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You don't really understand how Vegas works do you?
.
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:33 PM   #34
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So I guess this means Oakland is not going to the Superbowl this year
Do they get an extra 5 games vs. KC this year?...
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:39 PM   #35
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You don't really understand how Vegas works do you?
Vegas slightly bias the odds of the team that public likes to bet on, but ever so slightly, or they get crushed by sharpies.

The favorites usually attract over 50% of the betting volume, but I challenge you to find a contrarian strategy that will win more than 52.5% of the time.
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:44 PM   #36
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I dunno. I think Michael Lewis of Moneyball fame is onto something when he writes it's all about QB, LT, and DE. You have to be able to throw the ball, and you have to be able to pressure the QB. If you can't do that.....

For example, does having a top 10 running back really matter these days?
I think your misperception is that running the football is playing-not-to-lose. Beyond that, the modern (meaning current) approach to passing is basically an extended running game anyway. Although often passing teams use the air attack to expose the defense to the ground attack, an attempt to build leads and then run the clock out.

As for top-10 running back? I don't know. But I'd bet it takes a top-10 rushing attack and a solid yards/rush.

What you really want to strive for is balance, an ability to win in a variety of ways. If a team can stop your running game, you can throw. If they can stop your passing, you can run.
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:50 PM   #37
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Do they get an extra 5 games vs. KC this year?...
I dont think going 3-2 or 2-3 against the Chiefs will help but thanks for the thought
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:52 PM   #38
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I think your misperception is that running the football is playing-not-to-lose. Beyond that, the modern (meaning current) approach to passing is basically an extended running game anyway. Although often passing teams use the air attack to expose the defense to the ground attack, an attempt to build leads and then run the clock out.

As for top-10 running back? I don't know. But I'd bet it takes a top-10 rushing attack and a solid yards/rush.

What you really want to strive for is balance, an ability to win in a variety of ways. If a team can stop your running game, you can throw. If they can stop your passing, you can run.
It seems to me that it takes a vertical passing game. The WCO/extended running game innovation worked for a while, then the cover-2 evolved to stop it. Even the teams running the WCO seem to be much more vertical than 20 years ago.
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:54 PM   #39
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My guess is those teams that had a franchise QB and won it were big time favorites going into the season, and those that didn't have one weren't, and never made post-season noise again.
My guess is that's irrelevant.

95 was Chargers/Niners.
Journeyman/scrub and Young.
FQB = 1
Journey = 1 appearance, 1 loss.

96
Boys/Steelers
FQB = 2
Journey = 2 appearances, 2 losses.

97
Pats/Packers
FQB= 3
Journey = 3 appearances, 3 losses.

98
Packers/Donks
FQB = 5 appearances, 4 wins.
NA

99
Donks/Falcons
FQB = 6 appearances, 5 wins.
Journey = 4 appearances.

2000
Rams/Titans
FQB = 7 appearances, 4 wins
Journey = 1 win, 5 appearances

2001
Ravens/Gians
FQB = 7 appearances, 4 wins
Journey = 2 wins, 7 appearances.

2002
Rams/Pats
FQB = 8 appearances, 5 wins
Journey = 8 appearances, 2 wins

2003
Raiders/Bucs
FQB = 8 AP - 5 wins
Journey = 10 AP - 3 wins

2004
Pats/Panthers
FQB = 9 AP - 6 wins
Journey = 11 AP - 3 wins

2005
Pats/Eagles
FQB = 11 AP - 7 wins
Journey = 11AP - 3 wins

2006
Seattle/Pitt
FQB = 13 AP - 12 wins
Journey = 11AP - 3 wins

2007
Colts/Bears
FQB = 14 AP - 13 wins
Journey = 11 AP - 3 wins

2008
Pats/Giants
FQB = 16 AP - 14 wins
Journey = 11 AP - 3 wins

So, after all that, you are much more likely to win a SB with a franchise QB. You're almost as likely to show up in the SB with a journeyman QB.

At this point we haven't even won a ****ing playoff game since 93 so I'd be ****ing ecstatic to hit a SB and lose with anyone that can get us there...
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Old 09-16-2008, 07:04 PM   #40
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Vegas odds-makers would laugh at you.
More than we're laughing at you?

You were just proved wrong with certifiable, undenyable FACTS.

You do NOT need a Top 10 passing attack to make, or win the Super Bowl.
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Old 09-16-2008, 07:08 PM   #41
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My guess is that's irrelevant.

95 was Chargers/Niners.
Journeyman/scrub and Young.
FQB = 1
Journey = 1 appearance, 1 loss.

96
Boys/Steelers
FQB = 2
Journey = 2 appearances, 2 losses.

97
Pats/Packers
FQB= 3
Journey = 3 appearances, 3 losses.

98
Packers/Donks
FQB = 5 appearances, 4 wins.
NA

99
Donks/Falcons
FQB = 6 appearances, 5 wins.
Journey = 4 appearances.

2000
Rams/Titans
FQB = 7 appearances, 4 wins
Journey = 1 win, 5 appearances

2001
Ravens/Gians
FQB = 7 appearances, 4 wins
Journey = 2 wins, 7 appearances.

2002
Rams/Pats
FQB = 8 appearances, 5 wins
Journey = 8 appearances, 2 wins

2003
Raiders/Bucs
FQB = 8 AP - 5 wins
Journey = 10 AP - 3 wins

2004
Pats/Panthers
FQB = 9 AP - 6 wins
Journey = 11 AP - 3 wins

2005
Pats/Eagles
FQB = 11 AP - 7 wins
Journey = 11AP - 3 wins

2006
Seattle/Pitt
FQB = 13 AP - 12 wins
Journey = 11AP - 3 wins

2007
Colts/Bears
FQB = 14 AP - 13 wins
Journey = 11 AP - 3 wins

2008
Pats/Giants
FQB = 16 AP - 14 wins
Journey = 11 AP - 3 wins

So, after all that, you are much more likely to win a SB with a franchise QB. You're almost as likely to show up in the SB with a journeyman QB.

At this point we haven't even won a ****ing playoff game since 93 so I'd be ****ing ecstatic to hit a SB and lose with anyone that can get us there...
The relevant question is what strategy maximizes the likelihood of playoff success. Certainly, the best team does not win the SB every year. But the best team is more likely than any other team to win it -- going in.
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Old 09-16-2008, 07:09 PM   #42
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More than we're laughing at you?

You were just proved wrong with certifiable, undenyable FACTS.

You do NOT need a Top 10 passing attack to make, or win the Super Bowl.
Continue to beat on that straw man all you want.
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Old 09-16-2008, 07:13 PM   #43
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Old 09-16-2008, 07:19 PM   #44
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The relevant question is what strategy maximizes the likelihood of playoff success.
Competely agree.

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Originally Posted by FringeNC View Post
Certainly, the best team does not win the SB every year. But the best team is more likely than any other team to win it -- going in.
Clearly.

It's also clear that while a franchise QB is preferable it's not a necessity. It's a luxury...
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Old 09-16-2008, 07:29 PM   #45
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It seems to me that it takes a vertical passing game. The WCO/extended running game innovation worked for a while, then the cover-2 evolved to stop it. Even the teams running the WCO seem to be much more vertical than 20 years ago.
I wasn't talking about the WCO, I was talking about today's offenses. I'm not sure that screens and short passing aren't more prevalent now than ever, used in place of the running game to open up the vertical game you're referring to. People get sportcentered, seeing the highlights, and don't remember the other 25 dinks and dunks (some of which end up being huge gainers themselves).

And the NFL is always cyclical. New defensive wrinkles develop to stop the hot offenses, then those offenses change, adjusting to the defenses. It's always been that way and always will be.
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