*****The Josh Simmons Thread*****

[Dante84]

More to come!

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— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) April 25, 2025

Several teams agree: Josh Simmons had best tape of any OT last year. And they aren't very concerned with recovery on the torn patella tendon. More of the concern is maturity/character. But he's going to the ideal, veteran-laden place.

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) April 25, 2025

the #chiefs get LT Josh Simmons out of Ohio State. If Simmons didn't suffer a torn patellar tendon he would have been the first tackle off the board. I had one team tell me he was the most athletic and talented tackle tape they watched. There are some maturity issues, but this…

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) April 25, 2025

The #Chiefs have selected #OSU OT Josh Simmons at No. 32, a player recovering nicely from a torn patellar tendon. They are comfortable with his rehab and did endless homework on it. https://t.co/awdb0JhPed

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 25, 2025

The #Chiefs are selecting Ohio State LT Josh Simmons at No. 32 to close out Round 1.

A key addition to bolster the offensive line in front of Patrick Mahomes. pic.twitter.com/oBx2CjzmCe

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) April 25, 2025

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by wazu

It is absolutely about trusting in Veach. It's his show, his decision.

It’s his decision based on the medical guidance from Burkholder that Simmons will be able to make a full recovery from his injury.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

An OT of Simmons potential talent/upside wouldn’t last much longer. The Chiefs we’re right to take him at 32.

We know for sure no NFL team outside of KC thought he was worth the risk of a 1st round pick. Not one.

2nd? 3rd? Debatable. Won't ever know.

Could he have fallen way down like Smith did or would he have been the 1st pick of round 2? We can argue that. We do know that no one was willing to trade up from the 2nd round to get ahead of KC for him. So he wasn't worth a 2nd and 4th or 5th to anyone.

I love my wife and I think she's a good person but if tonight she comes home and eats a patch of dog shit I won't say "Well, I love her and she's a good person so I trust her. This should work out." I would think "how does someone I love who's a good human do something so incredibly stupid? What the fug."

I asked Grok:

A 2011 study published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine analyzed 24 patellar tendon ruptures in 22 NFL players from 1994 to 2004. It found that 19 of the 24 players (79%) returned to play at least one NFL game, with an average of 45.4 games played post-injury (ranging from 1 to 142 games). Assuming a 16-game regular season (typical during that period), 45.4 games equate to roughly 2.8 seasons. Players who played 80+ games post-injury (approximately five seasons) are likely candidates for your query, but the study doesn’t explicitly list how many reached this threshold. Given the range, at least some of the 19 who returned likely played five or more years, especially those on the higher end (e.g., 142 games).

A 2022 post on X referencing a study claimed 18 of 24 NFL players with patellar tendon tears returned to play, averaging 45.5 games, with one player reaching 142 games. This suggests at least one player, and possibly a few others, played five or more years post-injury.

High-profile cases provide some clarity:

Jimmy Graham (tight end) suffered a patellar tendon rupture in 2015 and played through 2023, totaling eight seasons post-injury.

Victor Cruz (wide receiver) tore his patellar tendon in 2014 but only played one additional season (2016) before retiring, falling short of five years.Carnell “Cadillac” Williams (running back) had patellar tendon tears in 2007 and 2008, played through 2011 (four seasons post-2007 injury), and thus doesn’t meet the five-year mark.Nate Allen (safety) ruptured his patellar tendon in 2010 and played through 2017, totaling seven seasons post-injury.

Challenges in pinpointing an exact number include:

Patellar tendon injuries are rare, with studies noting single-digit annual occurrences in the NFL.

Return-to-play (RTP) rates are low (around 50–79%), and performance often declines, making long-term careers less common.

Not a great track record. This is what worries me.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

When you do that, you're just so very prone to seeing what you wanna see. And I just don't know how folks can be so eager to just dismiss that.

I think your whole post could have been -

"Need is a terrible evaluator of talent"- Bill Parcells

At least I think that's who said it.

[In58men]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

Very sweet smile imho

Fat Dennis Rodman

[wannaGOback]

Originally Posted by JohnnyV13

Yep. I wasn't a master debater in high school. Guess that a law degree and trial advocacy training don't matter.

Of course, logical fallacies are pretty much meaningless when it comes to real world persuasion (see LW argument that the abortion question turns on "control of her body," while a VERY compelling argument that has moved MILLIONS of people for more than 50 years, it's built on a logical fallacy. The abortion argument CAN'T turn on this question. Instead, it's an obvious case of "begging the question." Logically unsound, but undeniably effective advocacy).

You’re obviously baiting a political response to violate ToS, and I will happily oblige because unlike you and many others, my residency here means absolutely nothing to me.

So to answer your statement: No, it’s not a logical fallacy. That’s just a made-up notion of a popular, warped, and celebrity “stamp of approval” think-tank, like this board and many other segregated echo chambers of the internet.

There is no begging the question. We know that a fetus will become a human life capable of contemplating the very question we ask. The only thing we can’t “know for sure” is when. Anyone empathetic enough to that proposition can do the research and come to a rational conclusion though. The fetus develops sensory response in the first trimester. Touch, taste, hearing, smell, and eyesight. Cognitive function is what undoubtably makes us human. There’s also extensive study that proves that language development, pattern recognition, and memory are imprinted in the womb through interaction with the mother in the third trimester.

By all means though, close your eyes and say “but we don’t know for sure.” By that same logic, a schizophrenic mass-murderer can claim they don’t “know for sure” that anyone is more than a figment of their imagination. Personal perspective doesn’t change the fact that common sense conclusions exist. If you hear hooves and want to argue zebras, you’re just a fool.

If abortion wasn’t a grievance, why the society-breaking level of grievance from both parties? Obviously life is much more convenient with abortion as an option for both men and women. It’s more logical to assert that it’s a justified convenience instead of what would be a dreaded hardship for a certain group of people. I also think that any logical, empathetic person would be more worried about being wrong about the assumptions of inception of human life, something we are already making a bold claim we “don’t know” about in proponent to the contrary and forego the possibility of being an incorrect murderer. Ah but you see, the lack of caution and personal responsibility is ironically a common theme for one side of this debate. So let’s talk about “my choice.”

Women should have choice over their bodies. In fact they do. Every woman selects who they mate with. It wasn’t always this way. They choose who enters their bodies and creates the possibility of a child. In the fringe, fringe cases of rape which are used as a pillar of the argument for many, and by the way statistically 1/10000000(another logical fallacy). I think it can be justifiable to terminate the pregnancy due to the complex relationship that it would obviously create between mother and child and surrounding community. But for the other 9999999 cases where a woman incapable of self-control(consensual sex with a non-partner) or obvious foresight(contraception)it’s not LOGICAL to give the same “justification” for the vast majority out of intention for the very few.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by Rausch

Patellar tendon injuries are rare, with studies noting single-digit annual occurrences in the NFL.

Trying to make blanket projections with a small sample size… not an accurate basis for comparison.

[nicksdad]

So you don’t think they are more desperate for a tackle after some years of personnel turnstile at that position than they were at guard a few years ago . Don’t think that the eagles dominating our line increases the desperation . If so , you and I disagree , respectfully

[xztop123]

Let’s cook. This big boy can move. Let’s get Andy designing screens. Also our new left guard moves better than thuney. We’re fast with the fattys again. First time since fish

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Here’s some optimism to counterbalance the hand-wringing over Josh Simmons’ patella injury! The doomsayers act like it’s a career-ender, but let’s get real: Correll Buckhalter tore his patellar tendon in 2004, worked with trainer Rick Burkholder—yes, that one- and came back to torch defenses with 5.0, 4.9, and 5.3 yards per carry from 2006-2008. Simmons, a 21-year-old freak, is already squatting 225 pounds six months post-surgery and got the green light for a mid-April pro day. With Burkholder’s Midas touch (remember Mahomes’ three-week patella comeback in 2019?) and cutting-edge rehab, Simmons is storming toward training camp, ready to claim his throne as an elite left tackle.

It took two seasons for Buckhalter to come back due to a re-injury of the tendon in 2005, but he also had a prior ACL injury.

According to the Colorado Gazette, Burkholder was told by doctors that they thought Buckhalter would never play again.

Not only did he play again, but rehab turned him into a faster player, according to Buckhalter.

https://gazette.com/news/age-and-inj...203c154b1.html

[lcarus]

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

He didn’t have to be right about CEH, he didn’t have to be right about FAU. If he hits on a couple later picks, then it negates missing on a first rounder.

I'm relatively satisfied when 2 out of 7 picks hit. If only every draft could be like 2022. What a draft. They only whiffed on Skyy Moore and Kinnard.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by FloridaMan88

Trying to make blanket projections with a small sample size… not an accurate basis for comparison.

We're using the information we have which is all we can do. The fact that it is more rare means we don't have as much knowledge or experience correcting it.

If we can't find any evidence of a guy playing 10 years after the injury it means you probably won't. The odds, no matter how small the sample size, are against it. My argument being I don't think a highly talented guy who's a huge risk to never be the same isn't a smaller risk than a minimally talented guy with no injury risk coming in.

The C- player with no injury risk might never be better than that but at least he'll actually play.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I just have a really hard time buying that the same team that waited until the 5th round to pull the trigger on Trey Smith despite him being totally fine is all of a sudden taking huge risks purely out of desperation.

If they didn't feel good about the injury, they don't take him.

I think they liked his progress and are rolling with that and the talent anyway. They aren’t paying this kid big money. They have an extra asset in a great draft for day 2.

This will not sink them if it doesn’t work out.

I stand by what I said earlier this week: Josh Simmons is the best LT in this class if he doesn’t get hurt. He has everything you want to be a good LT.

He’s got the same physical attributes of Kingsley. 34 arms (pro day), 34 bench reps, big body and has outstanding movement skills on tape. But this kid has significantly better footwork and hand technique than Kingsley. He can anchor better, he’s better in run blocking, he can handle speed-to-power effectively.

Everything Kingsley struggled with is what this kid is solid at. The Chiefs will never get a talent like this picking late. If they are right it changed everything. That’s the 2nd hardest position to find after QB and we’ve see that for the last 4 years.

I understand why they took the risk.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

He didn’t have to be right about CEH, he didn’t have to be right about FAU. If he hits on a couple later picks, then it negates missing on a first rounder.

I’m not throwing in the towel on FAU until after this year, so I’m not in that group.

I also defend the CEH pick to an extent. He wasn’t a great pick, but people act like he’s a Skyy Moore. CEH actually produced some value for the Chiefs. Not enough for the draft position, but Skyy hasn’t ever been productive.

CEH also fell off bad after his injuries. I don’t fault GM’s for not being able to predict future injuries.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I think your whole post could have been -

"Need is a terrible evaluator of talent"- Bill Parcells

At least I think that's who said it.

But that would be more applicable to taking a guy like Ersery that is a 2nd round talent.

Anybody who is anybody has been saying that this was Simmons range, mostly due to injury, all along.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

I asked for the link and you shared it. And I appreciated that and legitimately went through the study and read a good portion of it. Hand to god.

But I understand statistics and sample sizes too. And I don't think that a study like that is entirely representative of the situation of this player as the Chiefs are evaluating him (I've already shared why that's the case earlier).

Do you really think the Chiefs aren't aware of this study? Has Andy Reid never come across it? And to be clear, this is an Andy Reid decision more than anyone else's.

We're not talking about evaluating a football player. We're not even really talking about an evaluation of the medicals.

We're talking about the process of Andy Reid and Brett Veach and whether they're foolhardy gunslingers caked in hubris who have a history of these longshot gambles. Or whether they have had as much success building a team as any other in the NFL. And whether they are capable of balancing the overall historicals around this injury, the Simmons-specific case, and the risk/reward.

I think they are and am fine with the pick regardless of the outcome.

To pin this - I'm going to finish expressing my concerns/clarifying my position in response to you, because I respect you and the counterpoint you present is the one we all have to pin our hopes upon now...

No, I don't think the Chiefs are unaware of the data. I'm sure they know. I'm sure they also know that Buckhalter was productive when he got back but not as fast or explosive as he was before the injury. I'm sure they know that has been the case for guys who have been able to "make it back."

Maybe they're less concerned about it because they think if he's at 90 percent of the power and explosion in this leg, he's strong enough in the upper body to get by.

Maybe they're less concerned because they've seen him do more than squat 225 pounds, and see him do work that indicates he is back to the level of strength and power transfer he had before the tear.

Maybe.

It's also possible that things look as good as they possibly can right now, and they are hoping/projecting that he gets back to the level of strength and flexibility and torque in that knee/leg he had before, and they decided that's good enough (this is kind of what I think it is).

It's a gamble. A big one. Yes, the upside is large, too. It's not what I would have done, but I'm going to hope that it all works out because that's what is best for my team.

People can come back in this thread in two or three years if it has all worked out and try to dunk on me (or crow, or DJ) if they want. That's fine.

If he is back to what he was before and returns to the trajectory he was on, Simmons is probably a Pro Bowl level player or better at that point, and they've probably won at least one more Super Bowl, so I won't give a **** about people trying to dunk on me.

The logic and thought process that led my concerns is sound, and I'm going to stick with it.

Also, I'll close with:

Hope you know how much I respect you and appreciate our ability to have a logical discussion about this. It rocks and is one of the best things about this place (even when low-effort smooth brains who like hurricanes make it hard).