Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[-King-]

I'm getting a bad itch to be a degen and throw a couple grand on Tesla puts tomorrow...

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

What's taking the biggest hits right now? It seems like tech stocks are getting the most clobbered, but what else?

I've got some classic American companies that are doing well, like T and GE and MDT and KO. Diversification is my friend. I'm still losing my shirt, but at least it's not all down. The oil companies appear to be a place of refuge as well. I think these types of companies will weather the tariff stuff well.

Apparently Dividend stocks are the flight to quality. I've been busy as hell and have been paying little to no attention.

I've bought SCHD for awhile, and I know it doesn't win any return contests and dividends aren't tax efficient, blah blah blah. But I thought it was a nice grouping of companies I like.

Apparently it's winning the return contest now LOL. It's up 4% YTD and S&P500 is down 4%. I never thought I'd see a +8% return compared to S&P .

Interestingly, I ran across USMV or SPLV which is are Minimum Volatility ETF if the volatility is too much for someone in the market. They choose stocks based on the fact that they aren't very volatile. The objective is to get 80% of the upside with 60% of the downside. Might be something for the older crew or the weak of heart.

[Buehler445]

Weirdly Deere is up big lately. I'm no big investor or anything, but I buy a share every time I make a machinery payment. I've looked at the headlines for the company, and I haven't the first ****ing clue why this stock has risen lately. Farm incomes are down substantially compared to the prior 3 or so. Commodity prices are down indiciating another one. Tariffs are up. Their gross revenue was down 30% in Q1 YOY and their gross margin was down too. EPS were half of PY

I think they resolved their union problems, and they have some market leading tech that is hitting the market (no clue on adoption - I ain't buying that noise). Other than that the only good news I saw was they increased their dividend and their board submitted From 4s that they were all buying stock. (Maybe that's a stock option? IDK).

I didn't find any of the guidance but it must have been a humdinger for the stock to rise that much after a pretty crappy quarter and a dividend increase. .

[RunKC]

Now is the time to buy folks. FAANG or S&P 500 index funds or just add on. Lot of stocks on sale right now

Friendly reminder from a reddit post:

Remembering stock market crash of 2022

It’s easy to forget how short the market’s memory is.

Still remember the last few months of 2022. The S&P 500 was down nearly 25%, the Nasdaq had crashed over 35%, and inflation was out of control. The Fed was hiking rates aggressively, and it felt like a deep recession was inevitable.

Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan (don't remember which) predicted the S&P 500 would go all the way to 3,000. Michael Burry suggested an even bigger collapse taking S&P500 back to 1800. Most investors were convinced this was just the beginning of more pain. Even then people talked about stagflation and going into the lost decade.

Meta, in particular, was the poster child of despair. Down 75%, from $380 to $88. People genuinely thought it would never recover. The ad market was dying. Reels weren’t making money. Zuckerberg was "burning billions" on the metaverse. Investors wanted him to shut it all down.

It wasn’t just Meta. Amazon reported its first unprofitable year after a long time. Google’s ad revenue shrank. Microsoft’s growth slowed. Tesla was down to $113 at its lowest. Institutions were slashing price targets left and right. Investors were selling at the lows, convinced things would only get worse.

And then... the market did what it always does. Slowly, things started improving. Companies adapted. Earnings stabilized. The panic faded. By mid-2023, inflation was cooling. The Fed hinted at pausing rate hikes.

Meta posted a solid earnings report. Then came $40 billion in stock buybacks. The stock doubled. Then doubled again. Amazon recovered. Nvidia went on a historic run. The Nasdaq had its best year in two decades in 2023. By early 2024, Meta, Nvidia, and Microsoft were hitting all-time highs to reach even higher by end of 2024. Two years of record gains.

When markets are crashing, it feels like they’ll never go up again. When they’re at all-time highs, it feels like they’ll never go down. Neither is true.

So investors, it's going to be fine. Just be calm and hold tight. And if you can, keep buying.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Now is the time to buy folks. FAANG or S&P 500 index funds or just add on. Lot of stocks on sale right now

Friendly reminder from a reddit post:

In general? Sure. The tariff war seems to be getting worse - not better - though. This seems more like a sustained slump than a short-term dip.

As always, my philosophy is to keep with your plan - whatever it is. Making aggressive decisions to buy OR sell right now is where you get into trouble.

[HonestChieffan]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Weirdly Deere is up big lately. I'm no big investor or anything, but I buy a share every time I make a machinery payment. I've looked at the headlines for the company, and I haven't the first ****ing clue why this stock has risen lately. Farm incomes are down substantially compared to the prior 3 or so. Commodity prices are down indiciating another one. Tariffs are up. Their gross revenue was down 30% in Q1 YOY and their gross margin was down too. EPS were half of PY

I think they resolved their union problems, and they have some market leading tech that is hitting the market (no clue on adoption - I ain't buying that noise). Other than that the only good news I saw was they increased their dividend and their board submitted From 4s that they were all buying stock. (Maybe that's a stock option? IDK).

I didn't find any of the guidance but it must have been a humdinger for the stock to rise that much after a pretty crappy quarter and a dividend increase. .

They started big time cost containment 18 months ago and inventory controls. Their non ag business is stout...forestry and construction Industrial stuff. And the JD Finance is doing well. Plus they now administer a ton of stuff for other companies/businesses like incentive/finance programs for seed, chem, fert outfits All that plus they are the market leader by a huge margin.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DaFace

In general? Sure. The tariff war seems to be getting worse - not better - though. This seems more like a sustained slump than a short-term dip.

As always, my philosophy is to keep with your plan - whatever it is. Making aggressive decisions to buy OR sell right now is where you get into trouble.

Yeah it’s hard to time things. I think it’s always smart to keep some cash available for times like this so you can buy.

I sold Tesla for political reasons last month. Only thing I’ve sold in a long time

[Coach]

Originally Posted by DaFace

In general? Sure. The tariff war seems to be getting worse - not better - though. This seems more like a sustained slump than a short-term dip.

As always, my philosophy is to keep with your plan - whatever it is. Making aggressive decisions to buy OR sell right now is where you get into trouble.

I was about to ask if leaving it status quo is the best play for someone who has about 25 more years to retire.

I’d think yes, but wanted to see if others concur….

Edited: my portfolio is diversified, but it is slightly aggressive towards stocks and not bonds.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Look at TGT. There are good days for growth stocks and good days for safety/dividend stocks. I think Target goes down on both lol

I knew the news had been bad but geez. It's down from a high of $260 during the 2021 peak to $104. Below where it was prior to the pandemic and it only got down to $90 at the bottom of the pandemic it looks like.

I don't even know where you'd step in. Obviously, it's mostly consumer discretionary and won't do well if the consumer is concerned or pulling back. It's priced like you'd expect the dividend to be cut soon

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Coach

I was about to ask if leaving it status quo is the best play for someone who has about 25 more years to retire.

I’d think yes, but wanted to see if others concur….

Edited: my portfolio is diversified, but it is slightly aggressive towards stocks and not bonds.

25 years? Yeah, I wouldn't change a thing, personally.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Coach

I was about to ask if leaving it status quo is the best play for someone who has about 25 more years to retire.

I’d think yes, but wanted to see if others concur….

Edited: my portfolio is diversified, but it is slightly aggressive towards stocks and not bonds.

It’s not a loss until you sell!

[Coach]

Originally Posted by DaFace

25 years? Yeah, I wouldn't change a thing, personally.

That is what I thought as well. I admittedly was thinking of it from an emotional perspective (don't want to lose money, who does?), you know?

But I came to a realization that I got 20-25 years left to go and it's actually a good time to contribute more of my paycheck to the 401k. So, I upped my contributions to 5% more to take advantage of the uncertainty, as it's on "sale" so to speak.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

It’s not a loss until you sell!

Yeah, as I mentioned on my previous post, I was thinking it of an emotional aspect (losing money), until I realize that, I got 20 more years to go (at a minimum).

It's a good time to buy. So, I upped my contribution %.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Coach

I was about to ask if leaving it status quo is the best play for someone who has about 25 more years to retire.

I’d think yes, but wanted to see if others concur….

Edited: my portfolio is diversified, but it is slightly aggressive towards stocks and not bonds.

I have no bonds. Bonds do have enough return over the long term and then get their shit pushed in in 2022. Until I need income im staying out of Bonds
Buy and hold IMO.

Naturally, as soon as I dump anything with bonds they take off but ill stand by it. There is enough history that it didn't act as an adequate hedge in a downturn to suffer the poor yields.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I have no bonds. Bonds do have enough return over the long term and then get their shit pushed in in 2022. Until I need income im staying out of Bonds
Buy and hold IMO.

Naturally, as soon as I dump anything with bonds they take off but ill stand by it. There is enough history that it didn't act as an adequate hedge in a downturn to suffer the poor yields.

Most of my stuff is diversified in the Common Stock, Small Capitalization, and International funds.

A small percentage is in the bonds section.

I'll worry about the bonds part whenever I am within 5 years to retire and I'll re-evaluate. I'm just making sure that I am at least (from my viewpoint) diversified.