Mock 2/14/2025

[kccrow]

A Valentine's Day special for you.

Assumptions:
TE Travis Kelce rides off into the sunset with Tay Tay and enjoys doing podcasts with his brother.
QB Patrick Mahomes restructures his contract to create plenty of cap space.

Re-sign UFAs:
QB Carson Wentz - 1y 3.5m
WR Marquise Brown - 1y 8.0m
WR Justin Watson - 1y 1.75m
RB Kareem Hunt - 1y 2.0m
LT D.J. Humphries - 1y 3.5m + incentives
DE Charles Omenihu - 3y 35.25m (11.75m AAV)
DT Tershawn Wharton - 3y 22.5m (7.5m AAV)
LS James Winchester - 2y 3.0m (1.5m AAV)
TE Peyton Hendershot - 1y 1.1m (no RFA tender offer)
LG Mike Caliendo (ERFA) - 960k
P Matt Araiza (ERFA) - 960k

Sign UFAs:
WR Rondale Moore (ATL, 24) 1y 1.5m
Diminutive in stature but has been very effective in the slot and has game-breaking speed. The Chiefs were rumored to have tried to trade for him in 2023. Coming off an injury so he should be cheap on a 1-year prove it deal.
DT Benito Jones (MIA, 27) 1y 2.00m
Solid run stopper with some ability to get after it against the pass. Built like a bowling ball similar to Khalen Saunders though so not a game wrecker.
LB Jamien Sherwood (NYJ, 25) 3y 22.0m (7.3m AAV)
Safety-turned-linebacker that has great coverage instincts and the athleticism to play sideline-to-sideline. A fix for the lack of athleticism at the 2nd level.
SS Richie Grant (ATL, 27) 1y 2.5m
Lacks good coverage acumen but is a superior tackler. Very similar to Justin Reid with 3 years starting experience.

Let Walk:
WR DeAndre Hopkins, DB Justin Reid, DE Joshua Uche, DT Derrick Nnadi, RB Samaje Perine, LB Nick Bolton, DT Mike Pennell, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Mecole Hardman, K Matthew Wright, DT Marlon Tuipulotu, DE Malik Herring, LB Jack Cochrane, CB Keith Taylor, TE Jody Fortson, RG Trey Smith, K Spencer Shrader

Draft:
1-24 (t/MIN). LT Josh Conerly, Jr. - Oregon (6'4" 315)
The time has come to permanently address the horrendous LT situation the Chiefs have created for themselves ever since Eric Fisher was injured. Conerly is a superb athlete for the position and a high-quality pass-blocker. He has enough mass to anchor and enough reach to keep most rushers at a break-even. He surrendered only 2 sacks in over 1,000 pass-blocking snaps over the past two seasons, including a very strong BIG 10 slate in 2024 where he earned All-American honors. I have Kansas City sending Minnesota 1-31 and 3-66 for 1-24 and 3-97 to jump the Texans, Rams, and Ravens who all may require Conerly's services.

2-63. CB Jordan Hancock - Ohio State (6'1' 184)
One area of concern for the Chiefs in 2024 was the nickel position after trading Sneed and moving McDuffie outside. Hancock is an extremely versatile defensive back, having lined up at outside CB, nickel, and FS for the Buckeyes. Many have crowned him the best slot corner in the nation. He's extremely fluid with good route recognition to disrupt passing windows at all levels. He's capable of press, off-man, and zone. Very good blitzer from the slot but lacks the sand in his pants at times to make big-time tackles for a loss. Is a playmaker on the football with good ball skills. Needs to add some mass at the next level.

3-95. LB Lander Barton - Utah (6'4" 236)
The area the Chiefs really need to re-tool is the LB corps which lacked speed and the ability to cover... well, anyone. Barton has great size and athletic pedigree for a modern NFL linebacker. Possesses the ability to play man coverage on TEs and RBs down the field. Shows good depth in zone coverage. Outstanding lateral agility to find his way to rush lanes. Good play recognition and overall football IQ. Good length to stack and shed blockers but needs added strength to be up to the task in the NFL. Gets washed out of run lanes by big offensive lineman so he'll need to work on lower body strength and being better at creating an edge.

3-97 (t/MIN). DT Joshua Farmer - Florida State (6'3" 314)
The Chiefs would be wise to at least look to improve their DT depth in this draft given the depth of the class. Farmer is a powerful player with long arms and quick hands that allow him to win one-on-one matchups and disrupt gaps. Farmer has issues maintaining his pad level and is inconsistent getting off the football but if he can correct those things he has the ability to be a plus player on the interior. Widening his base and correcting his pad level should also help him anchor laterally against zone blocking and double teams. He has elite-caliber traits, a high motor, and he's a smart player (All-Academic) so the potential is there for him to outplay his draft position.

4-132. RB Bhayshul Tuten - Virginia Tech (5'11" 209)
The Chiefs really lack a difference-maker at RB going into 2025. Pacheco has no vision and Steele is a plodder at best, and if they bring back Hunt or Perine they are aging role players. Tuten is an explosive runner with quick acceleration and runs in the low 4.3s. He runs with great contact balance and forward lean to get tough yards. Tuten shows the vision to find lanes in zone and bursts North-South through the hole. Tuten also has shown good hands and the ability to make plays in the passing game. He'll need to clean up pass pro and his ball security a bit for Andy Reid's liking. Tuten reminds me of a faster version of Aaron Jones coming out when I pounded for him years ago.

7-227 (f/NYJ). S Dante Trader Jr. - Maryland (5'11" 202)
I think one area Veach is always looking at late in drafts is taking shots on defensive backs and I can see him doing the same again this season. Trader is a versatile safety with quick feet and good hips to maintain fluid coverage assignments. Trader shows good awareness in zone coverage. Possesses a great trigger downhill against the run and is a solid tackler when he gets there. Extremely smart on and off the field, dedicated to his craft, and makes calls for DBs. Can lose to size and lose spacing in man coverage. Good but not great long speed.

7-256 (Comp). DE Desmond Evans - North Carolina (6'6" 275)
I think adding another edge somewhere is prudent given the unknown that is BJ Thompson's health. Evans is a long edge rusher with good get-off and good power that allows him to collapse the pocket by walking tackles back. He has a high motor and violent, active hands to keep blockers busy and working. His best trait is maintaining gap assignments and shutting down the run. As a super-senior, he was disruptive and made plays in the backfield with 10 TFL and 5 sacks. He doesn't have great pad level or bend which limits his effectiveness but some of that can be coached up. Taking a chance on a former 5-star and second-overall ranked prospect whose build is reminiscent of Jason Pierre-Paul.


Projected 53:
QB P. Mahomes, C. Wentz
RB I. Pacheco, B. Tuten, K. Hunt, C. Steele
WR R. Rice, X. Worthy, M. Brown, R. Moore, J. Watson, N. Remigio
TE N. Gray, J. Wiley, P. Hendershot
LT J. Conerly, D. Humphries
LG J. Thuney, M. Caliendo
OC C. Humphrey, H. Nourzad
RG K. Suamataia, C. Hanson
RT J. Taylor, W. Morris, E. Driskell

DE C. Omenihu, F. Anudike-Uzomah, D. Evans
DT C. Jones, B. Jones
NT T. Wharton, J. Farmer
DE G. Karlaftis, M. Danna
LB L. Barton, J. Sherwood, L. Chenal, D. Tranquill, C. Jones
CB T. McDuffie, J. Watson, J. Hancock, J. Williams, C. Roland-Wallace
SS J. Hicks, R. Grant, D. Trader
FS B. Cook, C. Conner

ST H. Butker, M. Araiza, J. Winchester

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I don't think it's weird. I'd want several other guys over Wentz, but Andy likes to stick with backups who know the offense more often than not.

I might be weird as well but I really like Jameis Winston. I know he's a walking interception waiting to happen but when he's hot he's great. Maybe Reid could somehow coach some of that risk out of him at this stage.

Zach Wilson or Trey Lance would be nice but some teams are going to give them shots to compete to start IMO. Too many QB-needy teams and not enough QBs in the draft this year.

Everyone loves Jameis.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by JPH83

Plenty I like Crow. On the positives I'd say:

- We'd be better on the OL, and quite possibly we'll have a cheap future LT.
- RB room improves and I love Tuten there
- WR room certainly doesn't get worse, I quite like Moore as a reclamation project
- I think the LB move re Bolton is ballsy and correct, ditto safety and Reid

The big issue I'd have with it is DL. I don't rate Omenihu nearly as much as others on CP, and if I'm spending around that money I'd at least want to try for a guy like Chase Young. He's also flattered to deceive but at least I know there is a higher ceiling there. Maybe we never see it again, I'd like to take the risk. I'd also definitely not spend that much money on Wharton. How much would guys like Tart cost? Even Poona Ford to stuff the run could be better and cheaper. I don't think Omenihu, Wharton, Jones and Farmer are enough for me.

That's my only major gripe. Nice work, I'm glad people are willing to put the time in to these!

I don't love Omenihu but he could be a "cheaper" option than some of these other guys I like more. I like Sweat better than Chase Young or Omenihu. Spotrac has him estimated ate 18.8 AAV. That could end up pretty accurate. They have Chase at 17.5 AAV. I think that is a little rich but that's a lot more than Omenihu. If Omenihu is healthy, he can give you a similar pass rush and better run defense, plus the ability to work from the interior.

One guy I LOVE in the draft to replace him is Jared Ivey. I had him in as my 2nd round pick for a good portion of the write-up of this before opting to address CB instead.

That might be high for Wharton but I really liked what I saw from him this year. He was a difference-maker in several games, including the Super Bowl where he would have been looked at as a key in shutting down the Eagles had our offense not completely stepped on its dick then doubled down and put it through a shredder. There will always be some cheap options out there to pick up as Veach does, so I won't fret too much over it. I think it's a mistake to let Wharton walk at this point though.

I like this DT class as well and hate to see us waste it by going after another WR early. I think we have to take a LB this year. We probably have to take at least one DB. So you start picking spots and it makes it hard to champion a #3 at best WR as a "must-pick." If so, give me KeAndre Lambert-Smith out of Auburn in the 3rd.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I'm curious what you are looking for in terms of an "explosive weapon."

I do add one of the most explosive RBs in this year's draft class, if not the most explosive, in Tuten in round 4 (4.32 40 and 39 inch vertical this summer).

Do you want another WR added? Do you want a TE?

I feel like bringing Brown back and adding Rondale Moore sure gives us a lot of speed with both those guys being sub 4.3s.

I'm not sure what else we need?

As for "project OT," I think we see Conerly in completely different lights.

If they took Conerly and truly believed in him I’d be fine giving them that chance bc that would be a serious investment towards the problem.

Trading up would require us to utilize that extra resource which you did. I this is an awesome class chalked full of good TE’s and RB’s that extend through most of rd 2.

I like the corner you picked but think we need to utilize our top 2 picks to the offense, one of which being a RB like Kaleb Johnson or Devin Neal for example.

I think they have to get a top flight caliber weapon with one of their first 2 picks.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RunKC

If they took Conerly and truly believed in him I’d be fine giving them that chance bc that would be a serious investment towards the problem.

Trading up would require us to utilize that extra resource which you did. I this is an awesome class chalked full of good TE’s and RB’s that extend through most of rd 2.

I like the corner you picked but think we need to utilize our top 2 picks to the offense, one of which being a RB like Kaleb Johnson or Devin Neal for example.

I think they have to get a top flight caliber weapon with one of their first 2 picks.

It's really difficult for me to envision Veach spending a day 2 asset on a RB, especially in this draft where the position is so deep. A TE, maybe. A WR, maybe. I won't be upset if he does it, I just can't see it happening.

I think whether or not Kelce retires could push Veach to do something. We know Wiley isn't going to be 100% day 1. He tore his ACL in November. That leaves Gray and some other scrub. So, yeah, maybe he goes TE day 2. I'd think he will go into FA for that guy though if Kelce retires. I like Gesicki. Keep a good option out there in front of Mahomes and let Wiley work his way back. They had some pretty high hopes for that kid.

Hell, I could be all wrong about going after a LT too. Same premise is they had high hopes for Suamataia but he just wasn't ready year 1. We could just see Humphries and Suamataia as the options there and I wouldn't argue too much against it.

That would allow them to go hard after another edge rusher, get another weapon, etc.

The draft could go way different than we currently expect.

[Hoover]

But would that make things difficult for Gracie and her boyfriend?

[poolboy]

Not sure about resigning Hollywood..unless he is super cheap

[Mosbonian]

Appreciate all the time you take to do these kind of mocks Crow.....

Here is where I might differ....

I would keep Perine over Hunt....something tells me that Hunt will still be around at the beginning of the season waiting for a call in case we may need him.

I don't see them letting Bolton go.....but stranger things have occurred.

I also wonder about JuJu Smith-Schuster...for some reason they like the little things he can do and Mahomes seems to look for him a lot. (of course the same could be said for Justin Watson)

And as for QB...I just don't want to see Carson Wentz in a Chiefs uniform again. I would be fine with Lock before we sent Wentz onto the field again.

[Shoes]

Originally Posted by RunKC

If they took Conerly and truly believed in him I’d be fine giving them that chance bc that would be a serious investment towards the problem.

Trading up would require us to utilize that extra resource which you did. I this is an awesome class chalked full of good TE’s and RB’s that extend through most of rd 2.

I like the corner you picked but think we need to utilize our top 2 picks to the offense, one of which being a RB like Kaleb Johnson or Devin Neal for example.

I think they have to get a top flight caliber weapon with one of their first 2 picks.

Hard disagree with the top flight caliber weapon with their first two picks. The offense lost Rashee, Marquise Brown and Pacheco to significant injuries this season and still went 15-2. Didn't lose the Superbowl because we didn't have enough playmakers. Offensive line obviously needs addressing in the most urgent way, beyond that I am of the belief of taking the the best players available at whatever position they might be at- that's how the dynasty continues.

In this mock having a WR core of:

Rice
Worthy
Brown
R Moore
Watson

Tons of talent- lots of burst and explosive playmaking ability. Definitely agree that RB is a sneaky need for the Chiefs but Crow takes one of the more explosive backs in this draft class with a 4th round pick.

If Veach addresses the offensive line, this team will be successful. We've seen Mahomes win it all with some pretty suspect weapons.