Let's talk about the Bills - AFC Championship Edition

[TLO]

Discuss

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yup.

Pat plays well, we win.

If he plays poorly, we lose.

The rest of it is barely worth discussing. He's going to have to go out there and outplay Allen. And if he does that, we'll advance.

He's the most talented QB the league has ever seen. He's psychotically competitive. He's experienced. He has weapons.

No excuses. Go play well.

I’d also add that “third down defense” is a bit overrated in this one.

The key is first and second down. Keep the Bills in third and long. Success prior to third down is what will make this defense successful on third down.

These mobile QBs with good RBs behind them are almost impossible to stop on third and short. You just have to defend too much. And an unsuccessful conversion on 3rd and 3 opens the door to have to do it again on 4th.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

I’d also add that “third down defense” is a bit overrated in this one.

The key is first and second down. Keep the Bills in third and long. Success prior to third down is what will make this defense successful on third down.

These mobile QBs with good RBs behind them are almost impossible to stop on third and short. You just have to defend too much. And an unsuccessful conversion on 3rd and 3 opens the door to have to do it again on 4th.

Also true.

I've kinda felt that way over the last 3-4 weeks. It's not been that we've necessarily struggled on 1st or 3rd downs (which is where most people focus their attention). I've felt like we've kinda stubbed our toes on 2nd down as much as anything.

And that sets up those 3rd and short plays which, as you've noted, are essentially 2nd and shorts in the playoffs because these teams are going for it on 4th and 3 or less.

Defense is gonna be tough. That's why I'm focusing on offense -- just go !@#$ing score.

[Ebolapox]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

I was at that game. Defense was incredible. If I remember right, DT had Krieg in pretty much in his grasp for his 8th sack and Kreig slipped out and threw the winning TD with little time on the clock.

to paul skansi. not sure why I remember that, I was 7 years old.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yup.

Pat plays well, we win.

If he plays poorly, we lose.

The rest of it is barely worth discussing. He's going to have to go out there and outplay Allen. And if he does that, we'll advance.

He's the most talented QB the league has ever seen. He's psychotically competitive. He's experienced. He has weapons.

No excuses. Go play well.

Basically.

Yeah.

You wanna actually make a chink in Brady's armor? Go win it this year. Beat Allen then whoever comes out the NFC.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Also true.

I've kinda felt that way over the last 3-4 weeks. It's not been that we've necessarily struggled on 1st or 3rd downs (which is where most people focus their attention). I've felt like we've kinda stubbed our toes on 2nd down as much as anything.

And that sets up those 3rd and short plays which, as you've noted, are essentially 2nd and shorts in the playoffs because these teams are going for it on 4th and 3 or less.

Defense is gonna be tough. That's why I'm focusing on offense -- just go !@#$ing score.

Stop stalling out and kicking FGs. Stop missing Hollywood in the endzone.

I don't remember the last offensive game where we were just in high gear for a whole game?

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Stopping this run game in Buffalo this year has been a seemingly impossible proposition.

In a loud road environment, I think we got a shot. They do all that shifting around and that's gonna get 'em a few times for penalties at a minimum. Beyond that, just being able to fire off the football quicker due to silent count could make all the difference.

[KingPriest2]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

To add to this, check these career numby's incl playoffs:

Mahomes at Home: 54-12

Mahomes on Road: 48-12

Allen at Home: 50-15

Allen on Road: 33-25

And also Allen is 0-3 in road playoff games

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Stopping this run game in Buffalo this year has been a seemingly impossible proposition.

In a loud road environment, I think we got a shot. They do all that shifting around and that's gonna get 'em a few times for penalties at a minimum. Beyond that, just being able to fire off the football quicker due to silent count could make all the difference.

Chiefs were pretty good against the run in the first game against Buffalo.

31 attempts for 104 yards.

Unfortunately, the one big run they allowed was Allen’s 20+ yard TD run that sealed it.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

If you are going to the game, BRING THE NOISE.

The section I was in last weekend kind of sucked in that regard.... it actually didn't sound crazy loud and I think it's because so few people right around me were loud.

One guy a couple rows down tried to get people to stand at least on 3rd downs, which didn't really work until later in the game.

I try not to be in the way of people behind me if nobody else is standing, but at a certain point you just have to say **** it.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

The section I was in last weekend kind of sucked in that regard.... it actually didn't sound crazy loud and I think it's because so few people right around me were loud.

One guy a couple rows down tried to get people to stand at least on 3rd downs, which didn't really work until later in the game.

I try not to be in the way of people behind me if nobody else is standing, but at a certain point you just have to say **** it.

There's the fact that some of our crazier fans are priced out, but it's also that game not having the same bite it once did. It takes special circumstances like this game Sunday to get people rowdy these days. We're far too spoiled.

I'm a nut no matter when the game is played. A lot of folks aren't that way with the crowds going to games in this era.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

I’d also add that “third down defense” is a bit overrated in this one.

The key is first and second down. Keep the Bills in third and long. Success prior to third down is what will make this defense successful on third down.

These mobile QBs with good RBs behind them are almost impossible to stop on third and short. You just have to defend too much. And an unsuccessful conversion on 3rd and 3 opens the door to have to do it again on 4th.

That's when the Chiefs' offense was so deadly in ~'19-20, they were a freakin machine on first and second down, especially getting it to Kelce to turn any 2nd and long into a 3rd and short... and then 3rd and short was automatic.

And when the Bills were good in the first half last postseason, they were getting 8 yards on first or second down.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

I’d also add that “third down defense” is a bit overrated in this one.

The key is first and second down. Keep the Bills in third and long. Success prior to third down is what will make this defense successful on third down.

These mobile QBs with good RBs behind them are almost impossible to stop on third and short. You just have to defend too much. And an unsuccessful conversion on 3rd and 3 opens the door to have to do it again on 4th.

Yep. I don’t see any way the Bills play remotely conservative. Anything beyond our 40 yard line at 3rd and 4 or less will be automatic four down territory. And if they want those four yards in two straight running plays I just don’t see us stoping it.

[Bl00dyBizkitz]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Yep. I don’t see any way the Bills play remotely conservative. Anything beyond our 40 yard line at 3rd and 4 or less will be automatic four down territory. And if they want those four yards in two straight running plays I just don’t see us stoping it.

Even at their own 40 I think they'd go for it.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Allen is patient as hell this year and it's gonna be maddening if we just let him have wide open dump offs in the flats all day. I hope there's a plan to play those a lot tighter.

Zone coverage will help. And you kinda have to play that most of the time against this offense. Lot of 2-high where the corners can be aggressive coming down to tackle. I trust McDuffie and Watson way more to make those tackles than anyone else.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by O.city

Well.....yep.

Pat is gonna have to play well. There's no more missing throws this week. Be on point.

Patrick hasn’t been bad since the last Bills game. No turnovers. Sure the offense has struggled, but he hasn’t been missing guys very often.

The Hollywood drop is the perfect example. Elite pass dropped