Let's talk about the Bills - AFC Championship Edition

[TLO]

Discuss

[Peace Frog]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Depends. AB's is OG. If you're a fan of vinegary old school sauces, AB's is kind of the standard. Always get some AB's when I get back to KC, though I tend towards the Bold and Spicy, or whatever it's called. Bottom line, if you want to taste 'original' KC BBQ sauce, AB's is one of the actual originals.

Also a fan of Gates, which is more of a tomato-based sauce, iirc, less sweet than a lot of others. I'm more into savory than sweet, so I like Gates a lot.


Joe's is another good sauce, also old school.

for a spicier more modern sauce, Jack Stacks is pretty good.

Just ordered some Gates off of Amazon. Thanks for the advice. I'm making spare ribs for the game.

[Hammock Parties]

Anyone know how the Bills defensive scheme compares to the Eagles?

If they are dramatically different, we might be seeing a situation where Andy can empty his bag ENTIRELY on Buffalo.

Vic Fangio is Philly's DC now and has had success against Mahomes, albeit unable to beat him

Mahomes posted an EPA (expected points added) per dropback of 0.13 in six matchups against Fangio’s Broncos defense from 2019 to 2021. His mark against all other teams during that span was 0.21. His yards per attempt, completion percentage and passer rating were all lower for Mahomes against Fangio than against everyone else collectively.

Still, for all the relative success in slowing Mahomes individually, Fangio has never defeated the superstar quarterback as an opposing defensive play-caller (0-7), the most recent setback being a 21-14 loss to Chiefs in Week 9 in Germany.

The Chiefs jumped out to a 21-0 lead in that game, but Miami held Kansas City scoreless in the second half. Mahomes completed only 6 of 11 passes for 38 yards after halftime, nearly allowing the Dolphins to pull off an improbable comeback.

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Anyone know how the Bills defensive scheme compares to the Eagles?

If they are dramatically different, we might be seeing a situation where Andy can empty his bag ENTIRELY on Buffalo.

Andy has gone against Vic Fangio several times obviously so he knows him well. Same with Dan Quinn and his Seattle scheme.

[BossChief]

Guys, Buffalo beat us last time because Shakir and Cooper owned Conner and Johnson.

Having Josh Williams playing good ball, having Watson back and McDuffie being able to play the slot on Shakir is a HUGE difference.

Then you talk about adding Omenihu to the pass rush.

Then you add Pacheco and Hollywood to the offense.

Wanya Morris isn’t lining up at LT this time.

Kelce looked ancient in the first matchup and was possessed Saturday…

They had NO ANSWER for Xavier Worthy in the first matchup, and you KNOW he will have a chip on his shoulder because of the draft.

Buffalo is going to get beat by 2 scores and we will have a chance to blow them out if Pat is sharp out there.

[Hammock Parties]

The Bills defense did not slow down the Ravens or stop them at all.

The Bills defense made splash plays instead.

The equivalent of throwing haymakers while getting pummeled.

Enough connected. Gamble worked.

— 7️⃣1️⃣6️⃣ TJ (@TJDMCR) January 21, 2025

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Buffalo is going to get beat by 2 scores and we will have a chance to blow them out if Pat is sharp out there.

This is where I'm at as well. Think that shutting them down and really putting up points is very likely. Bills will probably start pounding the football behind that beastly O line and own the TOP. Kinda' funny since that's likely what we want anyway - running the football, not letting Josh get hot, and running clock.

2nd half we shut the run down and force a fairly cold Allen to carry the offense like he has before.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by Rausch

This is where I'm at as well. Think that shutting them down and really putting up points is very likely. Bills will probably start pounding the football behind that beastly O line and own the TOP. Kinda' funny since that's likely what we want anyway - running the football, not letting Josh get hot, and running clock.

2nd half we shut the run down and force a fairly cold Allen to carry the offense like he has before.

Ok, but WE want to be running the clock,not them.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by ptlyon

Ok, but WE want to be running the clock,not them.

In a perfect world, sure. The main thing being Josh isn't slinging it all over and getting comfortable.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - in the 'which team do I hate more' derby, this isn't even close.

I'd root for anybody in the NFL over the Ravens (well, not the Broncos or Raiders, but that goes without saying).

There's just not a team or fanbase or entire ****ing city that I loathe as much as those ****sticks.

Did I want to play Buffalo because I thought they'd be an easier out? Yeah - that was my primary motivation. But as a secondary benefit, if those guys manage to knock us off, I won't hope their plane crashes on the way back home.

That ain't the case for the Ravens.

**** Baltimore. Biggly.

10/10 Would read again. I love salty DJLN

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - Texans/Titans on the way to the Super Bowl was just the NFL making things a little too easy on us.

I mean, it feels like last year made up for lost time and then some (lord that was a brutal slog), but I certainly wouldn't mind another cakewalk in the coming years.

Yes, more AFCS teams, please. I think this year was as reason as any to take the regular season seriously and win the 1.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by Rausch

In a perfect world, sure. The main thing being Josh isn't slinging it all over and getting comfortable.

Oh he's not going to get comfortable. Not with the tacks I put on his chair.

[duncan_idaho]

To me, it’s going to come down to protecting the football on offense.

If KC can protect the ball and avoid turning it over, it has the answers it needs.

The Bills used man coverage to slow down a KC WR corps that was led by Worthy, Hopkins - who had been in KC for just a few weeks at that point - and Smith-Schuster. Brown gives them a quick man beater they lacked before.

Joe Thuney at LT has been an improvement from Wanya Morris. Caliendo at LG is not Thuney, obviously, but he has been less negatively impactful there than Morris at LT.

On defense, the Chiefs have 26 sacks in the six games they have actually tried since Omenihu came back. Jaylen Watson looked like he had been plying all year last week. Those two are major impacts for the defense. Hicks has also been worked in much more on D and played well.

All told, I think it’s enough - especially combined with homefield advantage that shaves a half-second off the start for the Bills’ strong OL - to flip the result.

It would be sweet to send the Bills packing. Sweeter still to send them packing with a two-score win.

We’ll see.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Guys, Buffalo beat us last time because Shakir and Cooper owned Conner and Johnson.

Having Josh Williams playing good ball, having Watson back and McDuffie being able to play the slot on Shakir is a HUGE difference.

Then you talk about adding Omenihu to the pass rush.

Then you add Pacheco and Hollywood to the offense.

Wanya Morris isn’t lining up at LT this time.

Kelce looked ancient in the first matchup and was possessed Saturday…

They had NO ANSWER for Xavier Worthy in the first matchup, and you KNOW he will have a chip on his shoulder because of the draft.

Buffalo is going to get beat by 2 scores and we will have a chance to blow them out if Pat is sharp out there.

Having Watson back so McD can cover Shakir is huge. Not having Morris at LT, also huge along with some of the other changes you mentioned (Playoff Kelce, Omenihu, etc). However, Joshua Williams is either hurt or not playing as good as we maybe thought as 100% of his snaps vs the Texans were on Special Teams. That’s right, he didn’t play a single snap on defense. Also, it appears that until he gets a full offseason to heal (at least I hope that’s the issue) that Pacheco is a JAG at this point. It should be mostly Hunt and Perine with maybe Pacheco sprinkled in to give someone a breather.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

To me, it’s going to come down to protecting the football on offense.

If KC can protect the ball and avoid turning it over, it has the answers it needs.

The Bills used man coverage to slow down a KC WR corps that was led by Worthy, Hopkins - who had been in KC for just a few weeks at that point - and Smith-Schuster. Brown gives them a quick man beater they lacked before.

Joe Thuney at LT has been an improvement from Wanya Morris. Caliendo at LG is not Thuney, obviously, but he has been less negatively impactful there than Morris at LT.

On defense, the Chiefs have 26 sacks in the six games they have actually tried since Omenihu came back. Jaylen Watson looked like he had been plying all year last week. Those two are major impacts for the defense. Hicks has also been worked in much more on D and played well.

All told, I think it’s enough - especially combined with homefield advantage that shaves a half-second off the start for the Bills’ strong OL - to flip the result.

It would be sweet to send the Bills packing. Sweeter still to send them packing with a two-score win.

We’ll see.

One of the 2-3 biggest storylines for me is what’s the plan for Hopkins and offensive personnel as a whole this Sunday.

On one hand, 16 snaps ain’t near enough. Not when he could be our answer down inside the red zone for Mahomes.

On the other, I don’t think this banged up Bills secondary can keep up with Worthy and Brown. Like, I think they might be running wide open more than we’ve seen against any team since Brown’s return.

But, Buffalo loves to stay in nickel and countering that with 12 personnel is a nice option when your TE2 is Noah Gray.

I think we’ll continue to see a heavy dose of 12, with the two speedsters at WR to stress the secondary.

However when they do go 11, there has to be more Hopkins. Just has to be. He needs to be out there on every red zone play even if it is 12 personnel — he should take Brown’s place in those spots because his speed isn’t impactful as much down there.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I have no idea how they score enough.

We have Watson (who looked very good in his return last game) and Omenihu back.

We aren't playing in Buffalo.

The Bills have been not good on the road this year.

It's going to take 2 or 3 fluke turnovers from us and none from them for us to lose.

While we’re getting some guys back from injury, they are as well. IIRC, they were missing Coleman and Cooper had just been acquired a few weeks prior.

They’ll also be getting Milano back, though I am hearing he sustained a leg injury late in the Ravens game.

[ThaVirus]

I will say that I love Watson’s return at CB but I think that’ll ultimately have a neutral effect on the game as I don’t think we will do quite as well defending the run as we did last game.

Back in November we held their backs to just 49 yards on 19 carries.

I mean, don’t get me wrong, if we are that strong against the run AND we get a serious boost from having Jaylen back in the lineup.. yeah, that’s grounds for us giving them an ass beating.