Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Skywater technology is a growing semiconductor company, was watching a video about them the other day about looking for a company that could be the next NVDA, Amazon, MSFT type .

I bought NVDA early but didn't know it at the time and sold at $53 and was proud of making a big profit. LOL

Your timing was great, as they had a decent drop Friday morning. Bought 150 shares at it's low point.

[Buehler445]

So you all are probably going to hate this, but I feel compelled to make a case for dumping NVDA.

First, the market cap of NVDA is more than the ENTIRE Chinese Stock Exchange.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidi...010315545.html

P/E Ratio
NVDA 66.28
Microsoft 36.86 (also pushed up by the AI)
Google 24.52 (probably the best shot at applicable AI)
Qualcomm 22.02
Texas Instruments 23.05

Some analyst I heard say in order to reach it's lofty valuation, it would have to get ANOTHER paradigm changing technology and dominate it like they did AI. No clue if that's right or not, but that's fairly horrifying.

I've done it with commodities, it's a lot easier to live with yourself if you give up some upside than if you ride it down. It does for me anyway.

If it were me, I'd dump it.

[big nasty kcnut]

Any low end stock i should buy before they get stupid high?

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Are you holding long or taking the swing ??

I think I'm gonna hold on to it

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

So you all are probably going to hate this, but I feel compelled to make a case for dumping NVDA.

First, the market cap of NVDA is more than the ENTIRE Chinese Stock Exchange.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidi...010315545.html

P/E Ratio
NVDA 66.28
Microsoft 36.86 (also pushed up by the AI)
Google 24.52 (probably the best shot at applicable AI)
Qualcomm 22.02
Texas Instruments 23.05

Some analyst I heard say in order to reach it's lofty valuation, it would have to get ANOTHER paradigm changing technology and dominate it like they did AI. No clue if that's right or not, but that's fairly horrifying.

I've done it with commodities, it's a lot easier to live with yourself if you give up some upside than if you ride it down. It does for me anyway.

If it were me, I'd dump it.

Having lived through the dotcom bubble disaster, I'm wary of a stock crashing, and honestly I've never had a stock do as well as NVDA has these last three years, so it's unprecedented for me to consider.

TSLA came close on the upside. I was up 900+ percent on it for a while, and then it lost half its value. However, I didn't have a ton of it initially so I survived the downside and am still very happy.

But NVDA? I'm up over 1,000 percent on it now, and losing half of that would still be a great win, but it would sure hurt. I'm selling off tiny bits, and the nice thing is that I can sell off 10 percent of my stock now and all the rest will be profit.

I'm also scarred by selling all of my Dell stock in the early 1990s. I doubled my money and thought I was a genius, and the stock went up a hundredfold after I sold it. That hurt. So I have to keep a fair amount of NVDA on the chance that it does the same thing, and I think it's as likely to do that as fall 90 percent.

tl;dr. I've got enough profit that I'm selling a tiny bit to get my original money out and ensure that there'll never be a loss, but I'm too scarred by past FOMO to sell a lot of it.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Having lived through the dotcom bubble disaster, I'm wary of a stock crashing, and honestly I've never had a stock do as well as NVDA has these last three years, so it's unprecedented for me to consider.

TSLA came close on the upside. I was up 900+ percent on it for a while, and then it lost half its value. However, I didn't have a ton of it initially so I survived the downside and am still very happy.

But NVDA? I'm up over 1,000 percent on it now, and losing half of that would still be a great win, but it would sure hurt. I'm selling off tiny bits, and the nice thing is that I can sell off 10 percent of my stock now and all the rest will be profit.

I'm also scarred by selling all of my Dell stock in the early 1990s. I doubled my money and thought I was a genius, and the stock went up a hundredfold after I sold it. That hurt. So I have to keep a fair amount of NVDA on the chance that it does the same thing, and I think it's as likely to do that as fall 90 percent.

tl;dr. I've got enough profit that I'm selling a tiny bit to get my original money out and ensure that there'll never be a loss, but I'm too scarred by past FOMO to sell a lot of it.

That's all fair, and I don't have any so I recognize that it's easier for me to say.

I would say that if it has a Dell type run, is that even possible? I heard just today the market cap of NVDA is bigger than the stock market of Germany and the increas in market cap was enough to represent the ENTIRE market cap for GM, Ford and Ferrari.

If it goes up like the Dell stock did then it would just be, what? bigger than every other stock on the planet combined? I don't think I'm going out on a limb saying that move has already happened (see Hog Farmer's story).

FOMO is a real thing, but goddamn, I'd have trouble not booking at least the 10% to me to even.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Having lived through the dotcom bubble disaster, I'm wary of a stock crashing, and honestly I've never had a stock do as well as NVDA has these last three years, so it's unprecedented for me to consider.

TSLA came close on the upside. I was up 900+ percent on it for a while, and then it lost half its value. However, I didn't have a ton of it initially so I survived the downside and am still very happy.

But NVDA? I'm up over 1,000 percent on it now, and losing half of that would still be a great win, but it would sure hurt. I'm selling off tiny bits, and the nice thing is that I can sell off 10 percent of my stock now and all the rest will be profit.

I'm also scarred by selling all of my Dell stock in the early 1990s. I doubled my money and thought I was a genius, and the stock went up a hundredfold after I sold it. That hurt. So I have to keep a fair amount of NVDA on the chance that it does the same thing, and I think it's as likely to do that as fall 90 percent.

tl;dr. I've got enough profit that I'm selling a tiny bit to get my original money out and ensure that there'll never be a loss, but I'm too scarred by past FOMO to sell a lot of it.

What percentage do you normally allocate to individual stock position size? You could sell off some of NVDA to get it down to your normal range if it's taken over a large percentage of your total individual stock percentage.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

That's all fair, and I don't have any so I recognize that it's easier for me to say.

I would say that if it has a Dell type run, is that even possible? I heard just today the market cap of NVDA is bigger than the stock market of Germany and the increas in market cap was enough to represent the ENTIRE market cap for GM, Ford and Ferrari.

If it goes up like the Dell stock did then it would just be, what? bigger than every other stock on the planet combined? I don't think I'm going out on a limb saying that move has already happened (see Hog Farmer's story).

FOMO is a real thing, but goddamn, I'd have trouble not booking at least the 10% to me to even.

Originally Posted by lewdog

What percentage do you normally allocate to individual stock position size? You could sell off some of NVDA to get it down to your normal range if it's taken over a large percentage of your total individual stock percentage.

I've historically had only a mostly hypothetical dollar amount limit on any individual stock holding, and I'm really diversified, so that limit is only about 2 percent of my total investments. I say 'hypothetical' because until the past couple of years I'd never had a stock reach that dollar amount. Now, though, I have five that are above the limit - NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN - because they all shot up so much last year. The last four are not too far above my limit, but NVDA shot up so much that it's now about 4 percent of my total holdings. That's making me nervous, but it's also letting me dress like that guy on the Monopoly money right now.

I'm going to keep selling off tiny amounts of NVDA if it keeps going up, but at the same time it feels like I'm voluntarily pulling my head out of one of those neverending chocolate fountains at Golden Corral. Every time I sell, the stock is 10 percent higher the next time I look. I sold my first defensive share last year at $438 and now it's pushing $800. At some point it's got to slow down, but maybe that won't happen until I'm doing two chicks at the same time. The stock may be high, but at the same time all I'm hearing is that they can't make those chips fast enough to meet the sales that are pouring in. From an investing perspective, it's tough to land a plane like that when I've been wanting a ride on it my whole life.

[myselff77]

Is your NVDA in a Roth or other tax protected account or do you take a pretty big tax hit each time you sell?

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by myselff77

Is your NVDA in a Roth or other tax protected account or do you take a pretty big tax hit each time you sell?

About 80 percent is in an after-tax brokerage. That's what I've been selling because if it keeps growing I want to keep the part that's in the IRA. So I'm paying taxes any time I sell.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

You could buy an inverse 2x leveraged NVDA etf as an insurance policy.

NVDQ

NVDA tanks and NVDQ goes up at a 2X rate.

Currently 6.50

I've never done any type of hedging or options, but that's actually kind of intriguing in this particular case.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

I bought 5 shares just for fun and it caused NVDA to surpass the 2 Trillion Market cap .

LOL. You should have told me and I’d have bought some.

[Nixhex]

Opinion on the cheapest per share stock to buy at the moment?

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by R8RFAN

Ok ... gimme something safe to drop 10k in tomorrow

even a CD or high yield savings is 5%

better than 0

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by Nixhex

Opinion on the cheapest per share stock to buy at the moment?

my 2 cents on cheapest 'per share' is that it doesnt really say anything about value or not.


What you have to do is multiply the 'per share' cost by the total # of shares (the float) to get the market cap (market value) of the company.


Then you have to take a hard look as to whether that market cap is a 'good deal' , or 'about right' , or 'over priced'


I think what you are looking for (if I am understanding you correctly) is a stock with a low 'per share' price that also is a good VALUE and has the potential to go up in price... as opposed to just random penny stocks that will probably go down or maybe aren't a great value.


Is that right?


I personally think Ford (F) is a fairly safe stock. Picking it up at the 9$ - 12$ per share range is always a good idea. Its on the high end of that range right now but at times pays about 5% dividends on top of possible gains. Put it on a watch and start picking it up if it drops towards 11 or 10. (imo)


SoFi (SOFI) is a good one in the 7$ range. They are new , a banking company, and could be explosive growth in a few years. Buying some sofi in little chunks here and there if it stays around 7-10 could be a good long term plan. Its risky but could grow a lot.


Vacasa (VCSA) is a kind of vacation rental company similar to air-bnb (but different). They are extremely risky and extremely volatile, but in the 7's i think its a good deal.


Newegg (NEGG) the computer online store that you order hard drives and pre builts from is trading at a dollar a share. Theyre in trouble but you could try and buy some for a dollar and hope it goes up to a buck fiddy and sell.. LOL


just a few random thoughts this AM