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Old 01-28-2024, 08:32 PM  
TLO TLO is offline
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Let's talk about the 49ers (Super Bowl Edition)
Discuss.
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Old 02-09-2024, 07:53 AM   #2371
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All the Niner nonsense is setting them up for a built in storyline regardless of outcome. The Niners win and they talk about all the “obstacles” they had to overcome against the “evil empire”. They lose and will point to some sort of script by the NFL to have KC win because of Swift.
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:02 AM   #2372
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I can understand being grumpy about a fake fire alarm. I'd be adding that hotel to the "do not stay" list for future visits. I do not think it was some act of fan terrorism. Waking people up at 6am isn't that impactful, and probably has zero impact when it happens 4 days before the game.
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:03 AM   #2373
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Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger View Post
Chris Simms, who is a well known bestie of Kyle Shanahan and picked the Niners to beat KC in the superbowl before the season started, just picked KC to win. He picked against us against Buffalo and the Ravens so I think he might be hoping for a reverse jinx or something. But he said he looks at both teams and the tape, and he had to be honest about what he was seeing. He was talking like KC are levels above the niners!!...

It's getting a little crazy how many people are picking us to win tbh but at least the bookies still have us as underdogs to balance things out

Edit: Dan Orlovsky's interview with Dan Patrick is also worth watching. He's backing kc BIG in this game.
Yeah, all the people who watch tape are saying "Man, the Chiefs present lots of problems for the 49ers on defense, and the Chiefs defense has the tools to slow down the 49ers offense."

Stats-driven analysis is skewing a bit towards the 49ers because of how excellent they were in the middle stretch of the season, but it doesn't match how they have played in the playoffs.

DVOA and its like have REAL blind spots when it comes to teams that pour it on against mediocre and bad teams.

Kind of like run differential in baseball. Cool, an offense is really great at beating the crap out of 5th starters, and teams don't get crazy trying to chase wins and prevent runs in those situations. Does the fact a team won 20-3, with 8 of the runs coming against the worst pitcher on the team and a position player pitching an inning, tell us anything about how that team will do against a good SP/playoff approach?
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:18 AM   #2374
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Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger View Post
Chris Simms, who is a well known bestie of Kyle Shanahan and picked the Niners to beat KC in the superbowl before the season started, just picked KC to win. He picked against us against Buffalo and the Ravens so I think he might be hoping for a reverse jinx or something. But he said he looks at both teams and the tape, and he had to be honest about what he was seeing. He was talking like KC are levels above the niners!!...

It's getting a little crazy how many people are picking us to win tbh but at least the bookies still have us as underdogs to balance things out

Edit: Dan Orlovsky's interview with Dan Patrick is also worth watching. He's backing kc BIG in this game.
Yeah, Simms has been going a little too far. On his show with Florio, he kept saying that no football person thinks the 49ers will win. Then he asked the crowd "does anybody here think the 49ers will win?" I think he was a little sauced too.

What a weird turnaround. From hearing all year that KC sucks and the 49ers are unstoppable, to almost the opposite.
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:23 AM   #2375
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Warren Sharp seems to be leaning Chiefs from what I can tell. This clip he tells about he was thinking 49ers and thought people who were on the Chiefs were purely doing it because of Mahomes, but then in breaking things down he sees a lot of things that lean towards the Chiefs. He's another pretty big Shanahan fan, so this was encouraging for me. I don't know of anybody who breaks things down better.
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:24 AM   #2376
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The Ravens ESPN reporter picked us to lose 31-17. What a salty bitch.
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:24 AM   #2377
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post

DVOA and its like have REAL blind spots when it comes to teams that pour it on against mediocre and bad teams.

Kind of like run differential in baseball. Cool, an offense is really great at beating the crap out of 5th starters, and teams don't get crazy trying to chase wins and prevent runs in those situations. Does the fact a team won 20-3, with 8 of the runs coming against the worst pitcher on the team and a position player pitching an inning, tell us anything about how that team will do against a good SP/playoff approach?
Yeah, thinking it needs to completely ignore games against the bottom 3rd of the league to dismiss teams that run up the score or sleepwalk through those games, but then you're shrinking the sample size even more.

It would be interesting to see how it moves the needle though... or have a "playoff DVOA" that narrows down to playoff competition

It'll never capture what the Chiefs did the season, treating the regular season as one long preseason for the offense, going 1-4 against playoff teams, and then making the SB. And it would probably always have issues with teams like the Eagles that collapse after some impressive wins.... but, would be good to close the gap so it's not so heavily skewed towards beating up on shit teams.
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:29 AM   #2378
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The Ravens ESPN reporter picked us to lose 31-17. What a salty bitch.
It’s like people don’t bother to pay attention, and haven’t figured out that this Chiefs D is stingy AF. They aren’t giving up 31 points. Hell, they haven’t surrendered more than 27 all year, and that was in that flukey Packers game.

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Old 02-09-2024, 08:34 AM   #2379
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Yeah, Simms has been going a little too far. On his show with Florio, he kept saying that no football person thinks the 49ers will win. Then he asked the crowd "does anybody here think the 49ers will win?" I think he was a little sauced too.

What a weird turnaround. From hearing all year that KC sucks and the 49ers are unstoppable, to almost the opposite.
I tried listening to that one but the audio only version was bad. A ton of back ground noise and all simms in the left ear and all florio in the right.
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:39 AM   #2380
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The Ravens ESPN reporter picked us to lose 31-17. What a salty bitch.
If only we could get Teicher to be that biased…
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:50 AM   #2381
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I was watching some of the Warner videos and it just seems like Mahomes is going to pick them apart and basically do whatever he wants.
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:51 AM   #2382
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That's why Andy had these guys practicing in the rain and also outside yesterday in full pads.

He wants these guys ready. Spags isn't letting up on our guys. Tackle, tackle, tackle. We're preparing for business while the 49ers are busy whining.
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Old 02-09-2024, 08:57 AM   #2383
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Yeah, all the people who watch tape are saying "Man, the Chiefs present lots of problems for the 49ers on defense, and the Chiefs defense has the tools to slow down the 49ers offense."

Stats-driven analysis is skewing a bit towards the 49ers because of how excellent they were in the middle stretch of the season, but it doesn't match how they have played in the playoffs.

DVOA and its like have REAL blind spots when it comes to teams that pour it on against mediocre and bad teams.

Kind of like run differential in baseball. Cool, an offense is really great at beating the crap out of 5th starters, and teams don't get crazy trying to chase wins and prevent runs in those situations. Does the fact a team won 20-3, with 8 of the runs coming against the worst pitcher on the team and a position player pitching an inning, tell us anything about how that team will do against a good SP/playoff approach?
This just looks like a team built to beat this 49ers squad.

Physical CBs, speed across the defense, a varied pass rush, power running game, elite pass-catching TE.

I mean I just don't think I care what DVOA says. This team seems purpose built to be a problem for the 49ers.
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:03 AM   #2384
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This just looks like a team built to beat this 49ers squad.

Physical CBs, speed across the defense, a varied pass rush, power running game, elite pass-catching TE.

I mean I just don't think I care what DVOA says. This team seems purpose built to be a problem for the 49ers.
Only DVOA goats are supposed to win though.
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Old 02-09-2024, 09:08 AM   #2385
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Spread continues to baffle me. Who is putting all this money on SF, and what is their rationale?

If the Chiefs do win, I really wanna hear SF bettors explain away how they missed the mark on this one. Film heads are all over Kansas City. Doesn't mean everything, but that usually coincides with betting spreads.
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