I do not want to write about this.
Chris Jones, in addition to being one of the very best players on the Chiefs roster (and the entire NFL), is one of my favorite players as well. He’s a force of nature, capable of closing out drives and games in a way that most players simply can’t (he did it so many times in 2022 that I wrote about it not once, but twice). He’s a massive part of why the Chiefs are two-time Super Bowl champions, and a genuine joy to watch and analyze.
Of course, football is a business, and sometimes business is ugly (no matter what Michael Corleone said, sometimes it feels downright personal).
I don’t need to give you the entire background, but here’s the summary; Jones, in the final year of his contract, held out from all of training camp as part of negotiations for a contract extension. Both sides have said they want to get the deal done (and I believe them), but we’re in the public phase of negotiating now, where Reid is voicing at least a little displeasure and Jones responding to fans on Twitter (in what may or may not be posturing) that he’s willing to sit out until approximately Week 8. Nate Taylor wrote a good piece summing up where things are at with negotiations overall.
That’s where we are. It’s by far the most contentious contract negotiation of the Patrick Mahomes era, and there has been a ton of analysis/conversation regarding it. I’ve been trying to decide what would be useful to add to the conversation, if anything. I was hoping to not have to write about it to be perfectly frank. And until the last week(ish) I wasn’t worried about it at all.
So here’s what I’m going to do; I’m going to simply throw out a series of things I think are valuable for people to know as they process this situation and as we wait to see what things look like in Week 1. It ranges from understanding the leverage both sides have, to why some contract comparisons are not quite accurate, to how a single outlier contract messed with things. These thoughts are in no particular order.
Before I start, I should note that I’m not on anyone’s “side” here. I’m all for athletes, whose careers are quite short and who often are providing for dozens of family members, to make as much money as humanly possible. I’m also all for teams being conscientious of the restraints placed upon them by having a finite amount of resources and the need to allocate them responsibly.
So I’m not mad at Jones (the third most important player on the greatest run in Chiefs history), nor am I mad at the team, and none of what I say here should be construed to mean I think any “side” in the endless social media debates is right. It’s just stuff I think people should be aware of and think about.
It would be a bit odd for Jones to legitimately hold out in-season at length for practical reasons
If this is just about money, then there are a few things you should know about how it works for a holdout. Former agent and current analyst Joel Corry (a must-follow on Twitter/X if you want to understand contract stuff better) discussed this in multiple tweets, and my good friend Nate talked about it in his article (linked above) as well.
The short story is there are financial consequences for holding out (duh). Here’s how it goes:
-Missing all of training camp and preseason (so far); $1.7 million, with that amount to increase by $50,000 every day until September 3rd (so another $500K). That puts you at $2.2 million total there.
-Missing regular season games; Given his contract, Nate put the number at $7.583 million (and I have no doubt he has good info there) if Jones reports for the Week 8 game (which is, it’s believed, when he’d have to report to accrue a regular season and be considered an unrestricted free agent. If he doesn’t report, then he doesn’t get that season).
In short, the DIRECT consequences of a holdout that goes to that length is that it will cost Jones nearly $10 million out of the gate. Now, he commented on Twitter that he can afford it (and he sure can), but there’s more here.
As Corry pointed out, by missing out on that base salary pay, Jones would alter what his total earnings are for 2023. And the reason that matters is the franchise tag. As things stand right now, the Chiefs would struggle to tag Jones if they can’t reach a long-term deal because the amount would be about $32 million (or even as high as $33.6 million if he hits his sack incentive).
BUT… if Jones misses those games, it drops his base salary (and guarantees he won’t hit that sack incentive), so then the calculus for the tag changes drastically. It would be closer to $20 million than $30 million given that salary. And that MASSIVELY changes his potential income for 2024, as well as his leverage over the team in terms of what their options would be with a tag (as they could fit it under the cap much more easily).
So realistically, a long-term holdout doesn’t just cost Jones a great deal of money in 2023. It costs him money (assuming no long-term deal gets done) in 2024 as well.
That’s one reason I’d be surprised if he legitimately holds out multiple games. Perhaps he tries one or two to get that deal done (Aaron Donald did so before his contract, and that still got done), but waiting that long makes little sense financially.
Of course, this could be about more than money. Players view contracts as respect, and it could be Jones is looking for that. In that case, he may be willing to sacrifice a great deal of money. Everyone is different in that regard. But again, a long-term holdout affects him both this year and next year, in theory, to the tune of something approaching $18-20 million.
The Chiefs need Chris Jones
Jones is one of the best 3 defensive players on the planet. He was a key cog in multiple wins last season, including the AFC Championship (there’s no way they hold the Bengals to 20 points without Jones dominating the game). And it’s been that way for years.
I pointed out recently that Jones accounted for a full quarter of the Chiefs’ pressures last year per PFR. And it’s worth noting that another quarter of their pressures last year came from Dunlap and Clark, who are both out of the building right now.
The entire Chiefs’ defensive line consists of guys who (so far in their careers) have been decent-to-good complementary pass rushers, not full-fledged “dudes” who can alter gameplans and take over drives. The closest they have is Omenihu, who is now suspended for the first 6 weeks of the season.
Without Jones or Omenihu those first six weeks, the Chiefs pass rush takes a huge step back on early downs (as Jones is really their only interior guy who can defend the run AND rush the passer well) as well as on obvious passing downs. Complementary guys like Karlaftis, Danna, FAU, and Wharton look decent next to Jones with Omenihu. Without either? YIKES.
That’s a big reason Jones has leverage. This defense was built to play around him. Without him, it gets incredibly dicey for their effort to repeat.
But at the same time…
The Chiefs don’t completely need Chris Jones
The only indispensable player in Kansas City is Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce is close, but even he could have his production at least somewhat replaced (probably from receivers and a change in the offense, but I digress).
The Chiefs have shown they are a serious Super Bowl contender with a bad defense, and are the Super Bowl favorite with a defense that’s even approaching average. Steve Spagnuolo is a good defensive coordinator, and he can probably coax at least “not awful” out of this group considering the secondary and LB strengths. That’s especially true once Omenihu is back in the fold.
And that’s the leverage the team has (in addition to monetary). They know they have Mahomes and company on offense, and can win games 38-31 all year if they have to. They don’t necessarily need to replace him to contend.
This is a business negotiation, and both sides are looking out for their own interests
I add this in because I quite often find that people fall into two “camps.” One side blames the team for being cheap. The other side blames the player for being greedy.
What I’d note on that is that the NFL, as much as we don’t care to think about it, is a business. These are peoples’ careers. And while it’s a unique career that doesn’t necessarily line up with comparisons to other jobs, it makes this whole thing easier to swallow if we remember that it really IS just business, not personal.
What makes it odd is that the majority of the time (basically anything not related to contracts) the interests of the team and a player are in alignment. Developing as a player, being a team-first guy on the field and in practice, etc, is good for the player AND the team when it comes to winning games and having success.
But when it comes to contracts, players and teams have divergent interests. It’s in the best interests of teams with a salary cap and a cash spending budget to spend as LITTLE as possible. It’s in the best interests of players with very short careers and a lot of people to support to earn as MUCH as possible. And so, two sides that are normally aligned have totally opposite interests.
I don’t blame the team for trying to be as disciplined as possible with their money. Imagine if you were running a company. You’d set a budget and, in theory, stick to it, because you have to worry about the operations of every single facet of the company and the long-term (5, 10 years or more) outlook of the business. That’s what teams do.
I don’t blame the player for trying to make as much money in their chosen field as possible. Imagine you were a terrific asset at your firm/company/whatever. Imagine you were the best in your field. And then imagine if your boss asked you to take less money than you’d earn elsewhere because it would really help him out with the long-term goals of the company long after you may be gone. That’s not your issue as the employee, that’s his as the boss.
I’ve negotiated contracts at my day job, and I’ve stated that I would not work for a certain employer unless they paid me X figure, because that’s what I believed my worth was given my experience. Had they said no, I wouldn’t have taken it personally, but I would not have taken less to do their job (mind the budget) for them. And I’ve had to tell people that they weren’t worth what they were asking for in a negotiation (or that the company just literally cannot make what they want work). That, too, wasn’t personal. Neither is fun, but at times it can be necessary.
But sincerely, I believe it makes things a little easier when we understand that this is, indeed, a business.
Part of this is due to Aaron Donald’s ridiculous contract, and the Rams messing with the entire structure of DL deals
One of the biggest problems the Chiefs and Chris Jones are having is that, unlike with most position groups, the current (and most recent) largest contracts aren’t as helpful as they normally would be.
In the NFL, there’s a certain order to things. Every elite player makes a little more than the last elite player to get paid as the salary cap rises. That’s how it has basically always been. But when you look at defensive tackle salaries, there’s a problem named Aaron Donald. Here’s the average money per year of the top 5 DT salaries, along with the year they got their deal:
Donald - $31.67 million (2022)
Quinnen Williams - $24 million (2023)
Jeffery Simmons - $23.5 million (2023)
Daron Payne - $22.5 million (2023)
Dexter Lawrence - $22.5 million (2023)
See the problem here? Jones has a legitimate argument that he’s the best of this entire group. What that would normally mean is you’d look at the most recent deals, tack on a mil or so a year, and call it a day.
But because the Rams were desperate to keep Donald from retiring, they gave him an extension that goes wildly beyond that of any other defensive tackle (or any edge rusher as well, as the top current earner there, T.J. Watt, makes $28 million per season). And then… Jones proceeded to be BETTER than Donald last season, in part due to Donald regressing and in part due to Jones taking yet another step forward under Joe Cullen.
So what that means is that there’s not that same guideline as there would be in normal circumstances. I’m sure that Jones’ people are pointing at Donald’s contract, and Veach’s people are pointing at Williams’ contract. With an absolutely massive $7.67 million gap between those two… it’s hard to come to an agreement.
So when you’re looking for someone to blame here, don’t leave out Donald and the Rams. They of course have every right to contract however they want, but MAN did they mess things up for the Chiefs (as well as the 49ers, who have Nick Bosa holding out as well and undoubtedly pointing at Donald’s contract rather than Watt’s).
Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce’s contract situations aren’t great comparisons to Jones
I’ve seen a lot of people talking about Mahomes and Kelce taking less money, and how Jones ought to do the same. There are a few things here worth noting that differentiate the situations and negotiations. Again, this isn’t to say that both of them are currently making a different choice than Jones in terms of how to approach the business side of them, it’s just information for people to keep in mind when contemplating this stuff.
First, both Mahomes and Kelce were given contract extensions when they had two full years left on their existing deals. NFL precedent has always been that when teams give out the “bigger money” sooner than they need to, they get a bit of a discount. That’s consistently true, and one reason I’m in favor of paying elite players before that final year of the contract comes up.
Second, in terms of Mahomes it’s worth noting that at the time he signed his agreement, it made him the highest paid player per year in NFL history. Yes, that has changed now, but that’s a function of the league. He did not agree to sign for less per year than already-existing QB contracts, and that should be noted.
Finally, in terms of Mahomes’ deal, what makes it a team-friendly contract is the length and structure. Neither of those are an option for Jones and the team. So comparing the contract situations isn’t an apples to apples. Jones, I’m sure, would be happy to sign a deal that makes him the highest paid player per year with unique rolling mechanisms that lasts 10 years. But the team isn’t going to do that, and for good reason.
None of this means that Mahomes and Kelce couldn’t, as of now, start kicking about their contracts. But it’s important when utilizing comparisons to note the differences in situations as well.
Now, does that mean we shouldn’t credit Mahomes for being willing to sign a uniquely long deal KNOWING that would mean the average per year passes him by? Of course not! He was, however, given a one-of-a-kind agreement, and one that can’t be imitated.
Kelce is a closer comparison to be sure, but him making a different business decision doesn’t, for me, put the onus on Jones (or anyone else) to do the same. And also, I can’t help but wonder what things would look like had the team (even with Jones on a shorter deal) had decided to try negotiating last offseason rather than this one in a similar-to-Kelce show of “we’ll give you the money now even though we don’t have to” action.
There’s still time… barely
Like I said above, Donald went through an even more contentious holdout with the Rams in consecutive years, and a deal ended up getting done. There’s a chance Jones skips a game or two and things still get done (or they get done sooner).
The big thing to watch is moves KC makes to free up room under the salary cap. They’re right up against it now (and over once all 53 rostered players count against the cap), and if they move money around to get under the cap that’ll be a sign that it’s not getting done this year.
We’ll see, but I still have hope. It makes so much sense for both sides to get this done.
No matter how this ends, I’ll treasure Jones’ career in KC
The way things go down over the next year will have a huge impact on the way many Chiefs fans view Chris Jones.
But no matter what happens, I’m going to look back at what Jones has done these last seven years (SEVEN YEARS! Time goes by, man) as a Chief with a great deal of fondness and happy memories. He’s been, as I said, the third-most important cog (him being so crucial to last year’s Super Bowl run had him surpassing Tyreek Hill) on the most successful time in Chiefs history, and genuinely elite player that has stepped up in many big moments.
But maybe just as importantly, he’s been FUN to watch while doing it. Anyone who has attending a Chiefs game live notices Jones, and not just for his dominant play. The way he connects with the crowd and genuinely feeds off their energy is always terrific (he’s Jas’s favorite player, “the one who is always dancing,” lol).
Ultimately, sports are supposed to be fun. And no one has looked like they were having more fun than Chris Jones. And he did it while helping the team we all love win multiple Super Bowls. So no matter what happens next, that’s what I’ll choose to remember.
Here’s hoping he and the team find that middle ground they both claim to want. There are so few genuinely great teams in league history. It would be a shame if something as dull as business robbed the potential of this one.
07-22-2023, 06:08 PM
VARSITY
The fate of Chris Jones 2023 edition
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