Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[wutamess]

So far this stock (NIO) has gained 2.6% since my purchase this am. Going to let it sit a year. Hope my ADD doesn't kick in.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by wutamess

I don't understand it. I would if I knew how and understood it. I mean, I kinda understand it but not comfortable enough to pull the trigger.

Don't YOLO calls.

The gamblers can take all their money (YOLO - You only live once) and buy cheap short term calls, and if it goes up, they will have huge value. But it has to move a lot. And if you're wrong you get nothing.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by wutamess

So far this stock (NIO) has gained 2.6% since my purchase this am. Going to let it sit a year. Hope my ADD doesn't kick in.

You should be fine if you let it ride for a year. Really fine. Stock ADD is a problem for me too. I went and paid property taxes $22,000 today then checked my portfolio and am down $2700 so I drank two beers to gain composure. Sold 5 shares Tesla which is even today and spent that on ARKG which took a big dip today. I think I made a good move but after I drink 2 more beers I'll feel really good about my decision. Then I have to go paint a ****ing rental.

PS .... I ALWAYS hate December stock market.

[wutamess]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

You should be fine if you let it ride for a year. Really fine. Stock ADD is a problem for me too. I went and paid property taxes $22,000 today then checked my portfolio and am down $2700 so I drank two beers to gain composure. Sold 5 shares Tesla which is even today and spent that on ARKG which took a big dip today. I think I made a good move but after I drink 2 more beers I'll feel really good about my decision. Then I have to go paint a ****ing rental.

PS .... I ALWAYS hate December stock market.

You sold TSLA?

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by wutamess

You sold TSLA?

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

ADD!

I got moar .

[Peter Gibbons]

I would be curious to know what rate of return do you use for you post retirement investment portfolio projection?

It’s the time of the year that I meet with some investment professionals and consider my retirement plans, investments, estate planning, etc. I’ve noticed that many bigger firms (UBS, Merrill, etc) are being very pessimistic in their return projections for even growth balanced portfolios post retirement. Most have assumed overall rates of return below 3% after inflation adjustments. In my personal projections I am much more optimistic in my assumptions of around 6-7% after inflation.

What do you think: am I overly optimistic or are the financial planners overly pessimistic? Something in between? Something else entirely?

I’d love to hear your perspective.

[Buehler445]

I think 3% after inflation is a pretty historic number.

May not be applicable these days because I’m sure that number was negative with the huge inflation in the 70s. Plus most of these outfits have traditionally moved to bonds which right now are returning ass. So it might be closer than you think over a lifetime following traditional rules.

I’d tend to be more conservative for retirement. Fools don’t need to be running out.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

I would be curious to know what rate of return do you use for you post retirement investment portfolio projection?

It’s the time of the year that I meet with some investment professionals and consider my retirement plans, investments, estate planning, etc. I’ve noticed that many bigger firms (UBS, Merrill, etc) are being very pessimistic in their return projections for even growth balanced portfolios post retirement. Most have assumed overall rates of return below 3% after inflation adjustments. In my personal projections I am much more optimistic in my assumptions of around 6-7% after inflation.

What do you think: am I overly optimistic or are the financial planners overly pessimistic? Something in between? Something else entirely?

I’d love to hear your perspective.

Pessemistic.

People have been saying since 2012 that the market was going to make a correction.

People have been saying since 2016 that the market was going to make a huge correction.

Had you been conservative all these years, you'd have missed some HUGE gains.

Asset allocation is real though. Bonds currently carry little weight so it depends how you have your money divided. If you have decades to retirement, you should be mostly in equities (index/mutual funds for most).

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

I would be curious to know what rate of return do you use for you post retirement investment portfolio projection?

It’s the time of the year that I meet with some investment professionals and consider my retirement plans, investments, estate planning, etc. I’ve noticed that many bigger firms (UBS, Merrill, etc) are being very pessimistic in their return projections for even growth balanced portfolios post retirement. Most have assumed overall rates of return below 3% after inflation adjustments. In my personal projections I am much more optimistic in my assumptions of around 6-7% after inflation.

What do you think: am I overly optimistic or are the financial planners overly pessimistic? Something in between? Something else entirely?

I’d love to hear your perspective.

I've got money invested with Edward Jones and know they are a bunch of Clowns. If you can't get 20% returns consider yourself FAIL.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Pessemistic.

People have been saying since 2012 that the market was going to make a correction.

People have been saying since 2016 that the market was going to make a huge correction.

Had you been conservative all these years, you'd have missed some HUGE gains.

Asset allocation is real though. Bonds currently carry little weight so it depends how you have your money divided. If you have decades to retirement, you should be mostly in equities (index/mutual funds for most).

What he's saying is these dudes are telling him to expect a 3% return rate over time. He's wondering if that is too conservative a projected rate.

If he's getting 3% he needs to knife a fool.

[Peter Gibbons]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I think 3% after inflation is a pretty historic number.

May not be applicable these days because I’m sure that number was negative with the huge inflation in the 70s. Plus most of these outfits have traditionally moved to bonds which right now are returning ass. So it might be closer than you think over a lifetime following traditional rules.

I’d tend to be more conservative for retirement. Fools don’t need to be running out.

Thanks that is helpful!

I agree with being conservative as well. I am about 10 years from retirement and I am fortunate that I will not need to touch any of these funds for at least another 10 years after that (effectively giving me about 20 years for more growth).

[Peter Gibbons]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Pessemistic.

People have been saying since 2012 that the market was going to make a correction.

People have been saying since 2016 that the market was going to make a huge correction.

Had you been conservative all these years, you'd have missed some HUGE gains.

Asset allocation is real though. Bonds currently carry little weight so it depends how you have your money divided. If you have decades to retirement, you should be mostly in equities (index/mutual funds for most).

That is my observation as well. They constantly predict doom and gloom and they will eventually be right. However, on the upside they seem to be wrong far more often than they are right.

I am definitely equity heavy right now. I struggle with bonds with our historically low rates knowing that they face value will drop when rates eventually rise. I need to rebalance soon but I am struggling with the idea of more bonds. I probably need to just do it.

[Peter Gibbons]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

What he's saying is these dudes are telling him to expect a 3% return rate over time. He's wondering if that is too conservative a projected rate.

If he's getting 3% he needs to knife a fool.

I hadn’t really considered knifing them but they do have me asking myself what value they really could bring to me. It sounds like you agree they are too conservative as well. I tend to be a bit conservative myself but these guys make me feel like an overly optimistic rube when we talk.

I may have to revisit the knifing option if I were to did they were Broncos fans. I am definitely thinking more and more that I should just part ways with them.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

I hadn’t really considered knifing them but they do have me asking myself what value they really could bring to me. It sounds like you agree they are too conservative as well. I tend to be a bit conservative myself but these guys make me feel like an overly optimistic rube when we talk.

I may have to revisit the knifing option if I were to did they were Broncos fans. I am definitely thinking more and more that I should just part ways with them.

Wait. Are you only getting 3% returns?

If you are, definitely knife that fool.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

I hadn’t really considered knifing them but they do have me asking myself what value they really could bring to me. It sounds like you agree they are too conservative as well. I tend to be a bit conservative myself but these guys make me feel like an overly optimistic rube when we talk.

I may have to revisit the knifing option if I were to did they were Broncos fans. I am definitely thinking more and more that I should just part ways with them.

If you're getting 3% return, heads needs to roll.

That's piss poor, IMHO.