Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

In this case, I don't any raw fear of flying....once things are copasetic, I expect everything to return to normal. People are clamoring to get out, and once it's announced it's OK to travel, people will do so. The fear factor is minute in this situation (this is all my opinion, right or wrong)

Here's how I'd think about it:

There is no denying that the economic cost of the shutdown is devastating and almost certainly magnitudes moreso than the health-related costs of the virus itself. In a simplistic world, if there were no economic cost to the shutdown, one would assume the authorities would keep things on lockdown until they had fully stamped out the virus or developed a vaccine which no doubt would take over a year. So, if and when restrictions are eventually lifted and things are deemed 'copacetic' in the next several months, one can pretty logically conclude that it's not because there's an all-clear on the virus itself. But rather, the cost/benefit of keeping the economy shut down versus the risks of the virus have become slightly more balanced. But for people like myself who have a wife with a weak immune system, a newborn, and a mother with severe respiratory issues, am I going to resume my normal day-to-day interactions with others? Not a chance. Are there going to be lingering waves of re-infections? Absolutely. Is this going to act as an overhang on our economy? For sure.

I 100% agree that when the restrictions are lifted a lot of people will want to get out and resume their normal life, but I think that will at best come in bits and pieces. And airline travel is about the last thing that they're going to want to do at that point.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Here's why I'd be hesitant to long Disney at this present moment in one picture courtesy of the Fool:

Tesla is a meme company. Nothing about their valuation makese sense. Their merger with SolarCity a few years ago borders on criminal malfeasance.

If you've got enough money to buy a share and it's not going to hamper your overall goals then why not. Otherwise nope. I don't believe in a con man like Elon Musk.

We seem to have vasty differing thought processes, but I do appreciate reading the differing perspective.

I'm way more than a share deep in tesla and don't even like Musk or the company in general. If I'm honest with myself, the companies I like and believe in are currently my worst performers, by far. I believe that belief is actually a hinderance of my being able to see them more objectively and in the past it cost me when other opportunities presented themselves.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

Here's how I'd think about it:

There is no denying that the economic cost of the shutdown is devastating and almost certainly magnitudes moreso than the health-related costs of the virus itself. In a simplistic world, if there were no economic cost to the shutdown, one would assume the authorities would keep things on lockdown until they had fully stamped out the virus or developed a vaccine which no doubt would take over a year. So, if and when restrictions are eventually lifted and things are deemed 'copacetic' in the next several months, one can pretty logically conclude that it's not because there's an all-clear on the virus itself. But rather, the cost/benefit of keeping the economy shut down versus the risks of the virus have become slightly more balanced. But for people like myself who have a wife with a weak immune system, a newborn, and a mother with severe respiratory issues, am I going to resume my normal day-to-day interactions with others? Not a chance. Are there going to be lingering waves of re-infections? Absolutely. Is this going to act as an overhang on our economy? For sure.

I 100% agree that when the restrictions are lifted a lot of people will want to get out and resume their normal life, but I think that will at best come in bits and pieces. And airline travel is about the last thing that they're going to want to do at that point.

From a micro-standpoint, there are lots of examples of people that will not, or should not, risk travel (your specific situation included). My belief is that, if the announcement was made tomorrow that it's "all clear and safe to travel", the 1.1M Americans that fly for business each day, and vast majority of casual flyers will do the same. So, it's not a matter of "if", but "when" the all clear is given. I believe that April, May, and June are going to be the 3 months of hell, and from there, things will start to open up. and when it doesn't, people will be more than itching to get back to business. For there to be a 2 year recovery, I'd think there would have to be at least another 12 months of restriction, and I just cannot see that happening....

[BigBeauford]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Here's why I'd be hesitant to long Disney at this present moment in one picture courtesy of the Fool:



Tesla is a meme company. Nothing about their valuation makese sense. Their merger with SolarCity a few years ago borders on criminal malfeasance.

If you've got enough money to buy a share and it's not going to hamper your overall goals then why not. Otherwise nope. I don't believe in a con man like Elon Musk.

I know I am late but get wrecked.

$TSLA Q1 Numbers:

• Delivered: 88,400, +40% y/o/y
• Produced: 102,672, +33% y/o/y#Tesla's best Q1 ever. Congrats @tesla @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/FgEdDJ1ff7

— Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) April 2, 2020

This company will hit $2k per share easy. Wait till the base model y hits next year.

Do you all even realize a $40k car was the 8th highest selling car? It's in the top 25 when adding in SUVs. I guarantee the model Y will be top 10. Take it to the bank.

Edit: To add even more perspective, the entire Auto Industry is eating a shit sandwich right now, except for Tesla. They are expected to outpace the industry by 25% for growth. Rich people have money and buy cool cars like Tesla even during shaky economic times. It's the middle class and below who can no longer afford to splurge on mainstream vehicles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...y-2020-4%3famp

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by BigBeauford

I know I am late but get wrecked.

$TSLA Q1 Numbers:

• Delivered: 88,400, +40% y/o/y
• Produced: 102,672, +33% y/o/y#Tesla's best Q1 ever. Congrats @tesla @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/FgEdDJ1ff7

— Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) April 2, 2020

This company will hit $2k per share easy. Wait till the base model y hits next year.

Do you all even realize a $40k car was the 8th highest selling car? It's in the top 25 when adding in SUVs. I guarantee the model Y will be top 10. Take it to the bank.

Edit: To add even more perspective, the entire Auto Industry is eating a shit sandwich right now, except for Tesla. They are expected to outpace the industry by 25% for growth. Rich people have money and buy cool cars like Tesla even during shaky economic times. It's the middle class and below who can no longer afford to splurge on mainstream vehicles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...y-2020-4%3famp

That's cool. A speculative stock doesn't mean their financial sheet matches the stock price. Sooner or later that ALWAYS catches up with companies.

Their profits have to explode to meet the current valuation of the stock price....otherwise in the end, it's just that, speculating.

[BigBeauford]

Originally Posted by lewdog

That's cool. A speculative stock doesn't mean their financial sheet matches the stock price. Sooner or later that ALWAYS catches up with companies.

Their profits have to explode to meet the current valuation of the stock price....otherwise in the end, it's just that, speculating.

They have over 6 billion in cash so they are fine for the time being. Man, lot of doubters here! Tesla is basically the Kleenex or Bandaid of Electric cars. They have a huge head start.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by BigBeauford

They have over 6 billion in cash so they are fine for the time being. Man, lot of doubters here! Tesla is basically the Kleenex or Bandaid of Electric cars. They have a huge head start.

Can you tell me their PE ratio?

[Hammock Parties]

**** tesla

when am i getting my VTIQ cashout?

[BigBeauford]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Can you tell me their PE ratio?

Who needs a P/E ratio!? Roll them bones!

[ChiliConCarnage]

This is an interesting article about some of the recent Fed changes and how much better our banks are positioned than 2008. It seems CCAR and the stress tests have worked?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...much-money-now

Very loosely speaking, the regulatory response to the 2008 financial crisis was to increase bank capital requirements and push banks to raise as much capital as quickly as possible; the (bank) regulatory response to the 2020 financial crisis has been to reduce bank capital requirements. The latter is much better! I don’t mean that regulators were wrong in 2008; the problem they faced was a crisis of confidence in the banking system, which required them to shore up confidence by increasing capital and implementing stress tests.

But ideally what you want is for banks to have lots of capital in bad times, and then relax those requirements—let them lever up and buy stuff and take deposits and lend and trade Treasuries and generally support the financial system and the economy—when the crisis comes. If you get too lax in the good times, then the crisis becomes a banking crisis and that approach doesn’t work. But if you spend the good times making banks better capitalized and more stress-resistant and generally more credible, then you can spend down some of that credibility in the bad times.

[BigBeauford]

Damn this is insane.

Sales vs Year Ago Q1 (via @john_beans)
Tesla: +40%
Kia: +1%
Genesis: -6%
GM: -7%
Toyota: -8%
Fiat-Chrysler: -10%
Hyundai: -11%
Volvo: -12%
Volkswagen: -13%
Ford: -13%
Audi: -14%
BMW: -15%
Lexus: -16%
Suburu: -17%
Honda: -19%
Porsche: -20%
Infiniti: -25%
Nissan: -30%

BOOM! ��

— Alex (@ajtourville) April 3, 2020

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I've been watching for several years now, and they've always outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow. I figured they'd underperform in a bear market, but nope.

I've noticed this too and wondered. Take a day 3 years ago where the S&P was up 1% the NASDAQ would be up 1.7%. Vice versa for down. It's always been more volatile so I wondered why it was holding up better.

I knew it was tech heavy and excluded financials. Looking through that list, it looks like it's outperforming more by avoiding downside than gaining upside. It's out performance is based on stocks it doesn't include

It has no
Financials (Bank of America is down 40%)
Oil and Gas (complete massacre)

1 airline, 1 travel company, 1 hotel, and 1 closed retailer that's been mauled (Ulta 50% down)

Any grouping of stocks that avoided the major blast zones would be outperforming. It does have a lot of MSFT & AMZN and they've been lucky to benefit from the coronavirus situation. The big 5 or so tech stocks are all very safe and cash flush and you'd expect money to flock to safety.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Here's why I'd be hesitant to long Disney at this present moment in one picture courtesy of the Fool:



Tesla is a meme company. Nothing about their valuation makese sense. Their merger with SolarCity a few years ago borders on criminal malfeasance.

If you've got enough money to buy a share and it's not going to hamper your overall goals then why not. Otherwise nope. I don't believe in a con man like Elon Musk.

People are always going to go to their parks. I think once a vaccine is created, people will slowly go back and if you long that thing, that’s what matters right?

Their new CEO was in charge of running the parks and all aspects of that side of the business too. Feel like he’s going to make that a priority.

Like I said before, this feels so much like 9/11 to me. People were scared of going to parks and history shows buying in at that point was a good deal.

[Discuss Thrower]

Berkshire unloaded hundreds of millions in airline holdings.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by RunKC

People are always going to go to their parks. I think once a vaccine is created, people will slowly go back and if you long that thing, that’s what matters right?

I like how you put this. If I've got a 20-year time horizon, do I think that Disney will be fully recovered in 20 years? Do I think any of these companies will be fully recovered? My hunch is yes.