Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

I do not understand why SPY is at 260.

261

[Discuss Thrower]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...line-is-coming

1. Peak loss of output. It's now generally accepted by economists that US GDP will contract by an annualized rate of somewhere between 15% and 25% in the second quarter of 2020 (some economists have estimated that the contraction in 2Q 2020 could be as severe as -50%). This would represent the greatest quarterly contraction in US economic history, by far.

2. Cumulative loss of output. Even though the US economy may resume quarterly sequential economic growth in the third quarter, the US economy will most likely remain in deep contraction mode on a year-over-year basis (i.e. relative to the same period in 2019) for all of 2020. This is due to the fact that social distancing will continue to be practiced (mandated and/or voluntary) – to a lesser or greater degree – for 12-18 months (or until a vaccine and/or cure for COVID-19 is widely available), thereby devastating large parts of the US economy during this time. For example, restaurants, sporting events, air travel, concerts, conventions, shopping malls and tourism will be devastated (relative to 2019 levels) for as long as social distancing is being practiced. In this context, it can be estimated with confidence that the cumulative loss of output associated with the forthcoming recession, relative to the baseline level of output (in this case 2019), will be by far the most severe since the Great Depression. No other recession since 1929 comes even close.

3. Peak unemployment. Peak unemployment is likely to surpass 20% and could be substantially higher. This is a higher rate of peak unemployment than any US economic crisis since the Great Depression.

4. Cumulative loss of hours of production. The cumulative loss of productive labor associated with the forthcoming recession will surpass any such losses since the great depression. No other recession other than the Great Depression produced a loss of labor hours that is even close, by comparison.

5. Massive financial crisis. The forthcoming financial crisis will make the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 look like child’s play. No financial crisis since the Great Depression will be remotely comparable to the one which will be experienced in the coming months and years. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 – which had been the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression - was mainly caused by defaults in just one segment of the credit market, namely residential mortgages. The forthcoming financial crisis will involve massive defaults on debt obligations from virtually every single industry in the US economy. Furthermore, massive defaults on commercial leases will have a devastating impact on the highly leveraged real estate sector and the financial entities that finance them. In the course of the forthcoming financial crisis, the common equity shares of many banks and financial companies will become worthless, while virtually all common equity shareholders of financial companies that provide credit will be subject to massive dilution in forthcoming restructurings and recapitalizations.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by lewdog

You have any more hot stock tips I can ignore?

He's investing in COVID Futures

[HonestChieffan]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...line-is-coming

Not sure how negative one can be but this guy is about to dive off a roof

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by HonestChieffan

Not sure how negative one can be but this guy is about to dive off a roof

If there were a god then hopefully it would tell you to demonstrate the proper form.

[lewdog]

Ford has suspended their dividend and is drawing down their cash reserves at a rapid rate. Stock also at $5. Woof.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...ord-stock.aspx

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Ford has suspended their dividend and is drawing down their cash reserves at a rapid rate. Stock also at $5. Woof.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...ord-stock.aspx

https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...t_and_what_it/

[Buehler445]

Good read. Thanks DT.

Bottom line, WOOF

[jerryaldini]

Surprisingly strong March manufacturing numbers out of China (China numbers, I know). PMI had dropped to 35 in Feb came back to 53. The kind of recovery US can hope for this summer.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by jerryaldini

Surprisingly strong March manufacturing numbers out of China (China numbers, I know). PMI had dropped to 35 in Feb came back to 53. The kind of recovery US can hope for this summer.

China would tell everyone they have full employment yet 80% of the workers would be prison labor. That's how Commies work.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Unemployment will shoot up to 15 percent during the second quarter of the year, while gross domestic product (GDP) will fall at an annualized rate of 34 percent as the coronavirus pandemic ripples through the U.S. economy, according to forecasts Goldman Sachs released Tuesday.

The new outlook shows a deeper recession than an analysis from the investment bank last week, which predicted 9 percent unemployment and an economic trough showing a 24 percent decline.

Goldman Sachs is still predicting a "V-shape" recovery, however, meaning the steep drop-off will lead to a bigger bounce of 19 percent in the third quarter.

"Our estimates imply that a bit more than half of the near-term output decline is made up by yearend and that real GDP falls 6.2% in 2020 on an annual-average basis (vs. 3.7% in our previous forecast)," the forecast said

Goldman Sachs new projections for Q2 drop from -24% GDP to -34%. Somehow they still have us shooting right back up with +19% Q3 GDP. I get we had a lot of stimulus but it's hard to imagine bouncing back to that level. I'd have been happy if we bounced back to flat growth.

[lewdog]

Looking for bluechip stocks with PE ratios that are lower. Where can I find a searchable list?

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Looking for bluechip stocks with PE ratios that are lower. Where can I find a searchable list?

Most brokerage sites have a stock screener tool. What do you use?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Most brokerage sites have a stock screener tool. What do you use?

TD Ameritrade.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by lewdog

TD Ameritrade.

Oh. I don't use that one, so I can't help you there. But I bet it's got one, usually under "research" or some such header. They won't usually filter on things like "blue chip", but in my various accounts I can filter for things like revenue and dividend paid and a million other things like eps growth, p/e, book value, and other stuff.