Let's talk about the 49ers (Super Bowl Edition)

[TLO]

Well Chiefs vs Packers is what I had hoped for, but that's not happening.

Let's talk about Chiefs vs 49ers here.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by 94605Niner

**** off, We're about to put Pat on a Vegan diet. On Sunday,He's going to eat a lot of Grass.

Sure

[staylor26]

Sharp is high on Jimmy G? He also thinks Lamar is a good passer so there’s that.

Sorry, but anybody trying to tell me Jimmy G is good isn’t even worth listening to.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Sharp is high on Jimmy G? He also thinks Lamar is a good passer so there’s that.

The big takeaway from his stuff was to expect a shootout, we’ll see.

If both schemes are in a good spot offensively I’m obviously placing my faith in the better QB.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Now that you mention the Lamar thing though, it makes sense. Sharp is using pure analytics, not seeing actual passes.

The 49ers pass offense is very efficient, like Baltimore’s was, because of how well they run the ball.

If KC jumps ahead at any time or limits their running game from the start, Jimmy loses the benefit of that unpredictability and his performance will suffer.

Meanwhile, he’s basically suggesting that KC just needs to throw it all over the field and well, they’re going to do that regardless of what is going on in the game.

[staylor26]

Exactly what I was thinking. He clearly isn’t a football guy, more of a stats guy. Shanahan doesn’t even trust Jimmy G right now.

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by 94605Niner

**** off, We're about to put Pat on a Vegan diet. On Sunday,He's going to eat a lot of Grass.

You talk a good game, sister.

[94605Niner]

Originally Posted by rabblerouser

You talk a good game, sister.

You've been woke for 6 straight days.

[94605Niner]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Now that you mention the Lamar thing though, it makes sense. Sharp is using pure analytics, not seeing actual passes.

The 49ers pass offense is very efficient, like Baltimore’s was, because of how well they run the ball.

If KC jumps ahead at any time or limits their running game from the start, Jimmy loses the benefit of that unpredictability and his performance will suffer.

Meanwhile, he’s basically suggesting that KC just needs to throw it all over the field and well, they’re going to do that regardless of what is going on in the game.

Thanks for posting that podcast
I had know clue we were that bad against the pass in the red zone... Robert saleh is going to have to tighten things up defensively if we expect to Win.

This game is going to be Epic!

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by 94605Niner

You've been woke for 6 straight days.

You got me confused with SeXfactor...

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by 94605Niner

Thanks for posting that podcast
I had know clue we were that bad against the pass in the red zone... Robert saleh is going to have to tighten things up defensively if we expect to Win.

This game is going to be Epic!

Yeah, if that's been the trend for 3+ games that's not something you can fix in one week. When the Chiefs went down 24-0 I knew it wasn't that big of a problem because HOU was the worst RZ defense in the league, allowing TDs about 75% of the time.

Meanwhile the Chiefs were scoring TDs about 66% of the time when they got into the RZ, and that included when Pat was out and we were starting Moore.

And shocker, every drive we had that got into the RZ ended in a TD.

HOU knew damn well they were terrible in the RZ, and couldn't do a thing about it.

TEN was second-worst in the league in the RZ, and of course we took them to the woodshed as well. They tried everything to keep us out of the RZ, but once we got in there, it was over.

Btw, last year when our offense was healthy for the year, we scored TDs in the RZ about 73% of the time.

Now our offense is finally healthy and have had a few hundred snaps together to gel.

So every time we get into the RZ against SF, don't be surprised when we score TDs, not FGs.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

This is a somewhat lengthy pod but a good listen: https://twitter.com/adamlefkoe/statu...498086400?s=21

It’s Warren Sharp and Adam Lefkoe talking about the game in great detail with the added element of Sharp’s analytical system.

Sharp says that the SF defense is being greatly overrated and he goes into supreme detail as to why, including why KC is a very dangerous matchup for them. Beyond anything I could type up here — but I’ll add a couple of details.

- Apparently SF has never played an offense that uses anywhere close to as much motion as KC (by the numbers). Their pass defense has had much lower success rates against motions when they have seen them.

- DJ will like the line in there about how SFs pass rush productivity is league average on 1st and 2nd down, but the best in the league on 3rd down.

- He says that 11 personnel is SFs biggest issue and they are worst in the NFL in success rate against 11 inside the red zone. The Niners in general have one of the worst RZ rates as a defense in general, per Sharp’s data.

- 49ers defense came in dead last among the 12 playoff teams in terms of defensive success rate against play action.

- Big picture: 49ers defense is totally reliant on getting 3rd down sacks based on Sharp’s data. Sharp says just stay aggressive if you’re KC, pass and pass some more, and avoid those 3rd and longs.

On the flip side.... they do seem to expect a lot of points in this game, even from SF.

- He sees Garoppolo in a much better light than the media perception.

- Chiefs defense had the worst run defense success rate against run plays that had pre-snap motion. Chiefs defense is also rated out badly against play action.

- Chiefs defense is the #2 pass rushing defense on 3rd down (behind SF).

- Chiefs defense 5th worst against 21 personnel, 49ers use it frequently.

- Chiefs defense is very good on early downs with cover 3, but Garoppolo has been equally good against it on early downs.

I was curious about that motion stat. So many of chiefs stats are skewed badly by our disastrous first half of the season on defense. I wonder how that's looked since we've improved. Bill Barnwell also has a really comprehensive look at the 49ers. He talked about how our DL rotations could be tricky. It was easy to swap Pennel and Chris jones based on which rb was in the game. We can't do that vs the 49ers.

I was also looking at the history of spags vs Kyle Shanahan. It's really bad. But interestingly enough, I don't think he's ever faced Shanahan with good personnel. Shanahan has always faced a spags defense that's been ranked toward the bottom.

Our defense is starting to make me a little nervous. But as Ray Lewis said and I buy this, landlord is a big time x factor. He points out that when garopolo throws he very often goes to the middle of the field. Because it's super safe. That's the type of qb Mathieu can play head games with.

I think our D will have tough sledding. But they'll do just enough to help our offense win.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I was curious about that motion stat. So many of chiefs stats are skewed badly by our disastrous first half of the season on defense. I wonder how that's looked since we've improved. Bill Barnwell also has a really comprehensive look at the 49ers. He talked about how our DL rotations could be tricky. It was easy to swap Pennel and Chris jones based on which rb was in the game. We can't do that vs the 49ers.

I was also looking at the history of spags vs Kyle Shanahan. It's really bad. But interestingly enough, I don't think he's ever faced Shanahan with good personnel. Shanahan has always faced a spags defense that's been ranked toward the bottom.

Our defense is starting to make me a little nervous. But as Ray Lewis said and I buy this, landlord is a big time x factor. He points out that when garopolo throws he very often goes to the middle of the field. Because it's super safe. That's the type of qb Mathieu can play head games with.

I think our D will have tough sledding. But they'll do just enough to help our offense win.

I think Chris Jones is going to take a handoff from Jimmy Crapalolol.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Now that you mention the Lamar thing though, it makes sense. Sharp is using pure analytics, not seeing actual passes.

The 49ers pass offense is very efficient, like Baltimore’s was, because of how well they run the ball.

If KC jumps ahead at any time or limits their running game from the start, Jimmy loses the benefit of that unpredictability and his performance will suffer.

Meanwhile, he’s basically suggesting that KC just needs to throw it all over the field and well, they’re going to do that regardless of what is going on in the game.

via GIPHY

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I was curious about that motion stat. So many of chiefs stats are skewed badly by our disastrous first half of the season on defense. I wonder how that's looked since we've improved. Bill Barnwell also has a really comprehensive look at the 49ers. He talked about how our DL rotations could be tricky. It was easy to swap Pennel and Chris jones based on which rb was in the game. We can't do that vs the 49ers.

I was also looking at the history of spags vs Kyle Shanahan. It's really bad. But interestingly enough, I don't think he's ever faced Shanahan with good personnel. Shanahan has always faced a spags defense that's been ranked toward the bottom.

Our defense is starting to make me a little nervous. But as Ray Lewis said and I buy this, landlord is a big time x factor. He points out that when garopolo throws he very often goes to the middle of the field. Because it's super safe. That's the type of qb Mathieu can play head games with.

I think our D will have tough sledding. But they'll do just enough to help our offense win.

The best way to view it is think about all the injuries for the KC offense this season. Think about how bad the defense was in the 2018 season. Imagine the 2018 defense mixed with the injured offense this year. Would the team have made the playoffs in this scenario? The defense stepped up pretty big down the later stretch of this season and they're a big part of why the team made it to a Super Bowl. A win would be amazing, but just getting there was already a hell of a season.

[BossChief]

SF had literally no answer for Jared Cook until he got a concussion. Kelce should be able to have a huge game and force that defense to overcompensate to stop him. That should open up lots of opportunities for Sammy Watkins to work in space.

Belldozer (very good blocker) and Schwartz should be able to completely neutralize Ford. Fisher should be able to match up well with Bosa after facing his brother a few times....possibly needing help from Wis and a back to buy Mahomes more time. I just really think our OL is going to play the best game of the year Sunday. They know they need to for us to win this Superbowl. (That still sounds surreal to say)

Andy having 2 weeks to prepare should have lots of stuff planned to exploit SFs difficulty in facing mobile QBs and slow their pass rush with the screen and misdirection game. Taking the top off with Tyreek should also keep SFs defense on their heels and over the course of the game will frustrate them. I expect to see a couple times when they throw their hands up like “what was I supposed to do” like we’ve seen many times before.

Honey Landlord will impact the middle area of the field Garrapolo likes to throw into. We should be able to double Kittle with a linebacker and Tyrann. As Garrapolo looks past that option (possibly after forcing a pass to him that gets intercepted) our guys should be able to step down to the RBs out of the backfield. Them passing to the backs and Deebo is a concern, though. Those guys can fly and our defenses weakness is the LBs covering speed out of the backfield.

The DL will stonewall their running game exactly how they shit down Tennessee’s throats. I expect them to play out of their minds and for Jones to have a huge game For a payday.