Mock 11/10

[kccrow]

Chiefs break our hearts and lose to New England in the AFC Championship game in another shootout.
Chiefs dump Bob Sutton after a season in which the defense once again fell severely in rank.
Chiefs hire Perry Fewell from the Jacksonville Jaguars as their new defensive coordinator and switch to a 4-3.

Trades
OLB Dee Ford - Chiefs franchise Ford, but then trade him to the New York Jets for a swap of 1st round picks. The Jets hold the 7th overall pick and the Chiefs hold the 30th overall pick.

Cuts
SS Eric Berry - The time has come where the Chiefs have to very seriously entertain the option of cutting Berry. He's available less than he's not and his $16.5 million price tag in 2019 is steep. By cutting Berry with a June 1 designation, the Chiefs free up $9.5 million in cap space in 2019 and $5.5 million in 2020 according to Over The Cap.

Free Agent Signings
CB Ronald Darby (PHI) - 4 years, $56 million, $18 million signing bonus. Darby has routinely been one of the best CBs in the NFL in PBUs and is a solid cover corner that can play man and off-man well, pluse he's a solid tackler. It's doubtful the Eagles re-sign him given that they'll need to make cuts just to operate under the cap, most notably Nick Foles who would give them enough space for the draft. They'll probably be cutting Michael Bennett and Chris Long at DE if they want to do much of anything else.
DE Markus Golden (ARZ) - 3 years, $23 million, $11 million guaranteed with incentives to raise the deal to $40 million. Golden looked like a star in 2016 but a torn ACL in 2017 kept him out most of the season and he's had an off 2018 just 1-year removed from injury. He should be 100% for 2019, so he's well worth the shot of bringing home to Missouri.
TE Maxx Williams (BAL) - 3 years, $9 million, $3.5 million guaranteed. Baltimore has a log jam at TE, so it's more likely than not that they let their former 2nd round pick walk. Williams has talent but has been hampered by injuries throughout his career. He wouldn't have to come in and be the #1 so a more limited snap count would help keep him healthy and allow the Chiefs to have a dynamic 1-2 punch at the position. Williams only turns 25 before the season starts.

Re-Signings
FB Anthony Sherman - 4 years, $8.5 million, $4.5 million guaranteed
FS Jordan Lucas - RFA Original Round Tender, estimated $2.03 million
CB Orlando Scandrick - 1 year, $2 million
RB Spencer Ware - 1 year, $1 million
OG/C Jordan Devey - 1 year $805k + $90k signing (vet min)
OC Austin Reiter - RFA Original Round Tender, est $2.03 million
DE Justin Hamilton - ERFA Tender, est $570k + $30k signing
K Harrison Butker - ERFA Tender, est $570k + $30k signing
WR Marcus Kemp - ERFA Tender, est $570k + $30k signing
TE Alex Ellis - ERFA Tender, est $645k + $30k signing
All PS players on minimal deals

Extensions
WR Tyreek Hill - 5 years $85.0 million with $50.0 million in guarantees, including a $20.0 million signing bonus.

Let Walk
DE Allen Bailey, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Damien Williams, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, DE Jarvis Jenkins, OLB Frank Zombo, WR Chris Conley, CB Steven Nelson, OLB Nate Orchard, ILB Terrence Smith

Draft
1. LB Devin White, LSU (6'2" 236) [f/NYJ]
2. SS Johnathan Abram, Mississippi State (5'11" 210) [f/LAR]
2. FS Juan Thornhill, Virginia (6'0" 210)
3. DE Jaylon Ferguson, Louisiana Tech (6'4" 265)
5. RB Ryquell Armstead, Temple (5'11" 215)
6. DT Kingsley Keke, Texas A&M (6'4" 305)
7. TE Cole Herdman, Purdue (6'4" 245)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware, Darrel Williams, Ryquell Armstead
FB: Anthony Sherman
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Cole Herdman, Alex Ellis
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Cameron Erving, Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Jordan Devey, Jimmy Murray
DT: Chris Jones, Breeland Speaks, Kingsley Keke
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Justin Hamilton
DE: Justin Houston, Markus Golden, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Jaylon Ferguson, Rob McCray
LB: Devin White, Anthony Hitchens, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Orlando Scandrick, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
FS: Juan Thornhill, Jordan Lucas, Eric Murray, Leon McQuay
SS: Johnathan Abram, Daniel Sorensen, Armani Watts
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester

[RealSNR]

Interesting idea with the Ford trade. That's the equivalent of the Jets giving up a 2nd and... a 4th? I might prefer just an extra 2nd at that point. I have no idea what the equivalent value is.

I really like the Abram and Ferguson picks, too.

[BryanBusby]

I can't see Andy dumping his lover senior citizen coordinator, or them going away from running lots of nickel/dime so 'switching' to a 4-3 would be irrelevant.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Interesting idea with the Ford trade. That's the equivalent of the Jets giving up a 2nd and... a 4th? I might prefer just an extra 2nd at that point. I have no idea what the equivalent value is.

I really like the Abram and Ferguson picks, too.

Roughly a mid-first, about 900 points to get from 30 to 7. If Bosa and Ferrell are off the board at that point, I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility. The key would be that the Jets get the pass rusher they've been desperate to find for what seems like a decade, plus they retain a first to continue to build. Chiefs get up at the top to get the best linebacker to enter the draft since Keuchly and shore up that sieve on the inside.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

I can't see Andy dumping his lover senior citizen coordinator, or them going away from running lots of nickel/dime so 'switching' to a 4-3 would be irrelevant.

If he continues on the path of futility he's on this year, I can certainly see it happening. Running a 4-3 doesn't mean you stop running alot of nickel. I could, however, see Andy wanting a coordinator that knows how to scheme with a 4-man rush and cover for secondary deficiencies. Fewell is the New England slayer, and I really don't understand why he doesn't have a DC job right now.

[RunKC]

At this point I want to do anything possible to get the last Bama/MSU DL on the board in rd 1.

Those guys look like monsters.

[The Franchise]

I came.

[Direckshun]

I’m sorry but if you get a top ten pick, it better be a stud DL, a pass rusher, or a cornerback. An elite player at any one of those positions is more valuable than an elite ILB.

ILB just is not worth a top ten.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by The Pest

I came.

This might be the best mock I've ever seen. Very creative, and makes a lot of sense.

Nice job.

[Hoover]

Reminds me of the 1996 draft with Woods/Tongue

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I’m sorry but if you get a top ten pick, it better be a stud DL, a pass rusher, or a cornerback. An elite player at any one of those positions is more valuable than an elite ILB.

ILB just is not worth a top ten.

In my opinion, the choice would come down to stud DT versus stud ILB. I think Bosa and Ferrell are going top 3 and I do project 1 and 3 respectively at this point if it's the Raiders and 49ers in those spots. I have a QB to the Giants sandwiched in between. After that, there is a significant drop off in edge talent even to Josh Allen who is pretty good. I don't have a CB rated as a top 10 talent to this point, although that rating is far from anything at this point. The closest is Greedy Williams. Now, the big argument is DT in my opinion, and there are some monsters this year. That said, I think the defensive tackle position is pretty stacked for the Chiefs IF they do make a move to a 4-3. If I didn't project the Chiefs moving to a 4-3 and I'm projecting Speaks to remain at OLB, then I'd be all-in on a DT/DE prospect. That said, I probably also wouldn't be trading Dee Ford away to get here. So, for me, I'm taking the best ILB prospect that I've seen since Patrick Willis coming out. The reasoning I have is that I think the Chiefs weakest spot on the defense is at linebacker. They struggle in coverage and they struggle coming up in run support. This team needs a leader, a play caller, and an enforcer on the inside. They lack one. White is exactly that type of player. He can cover, he's stout, he's one of the quickest, most decisive linebackers I've ever watched.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by kccrow

If he continues on the path of futility he's on this year, I can certainly see it happening. Running a 4-3 doesn't mean you stop running alot of nickel. I could, however, see Andy wanting a coordinator that knows how to scheme with a 4-man rush and cover for secondary deficiencies. Fewell is the New England slayer, and I really don't understand why he doesn't have a DC job right now.

Right now the Chiefs are 9-1 and they are quietly improving of Defense. Not by much, but there's some upwards trend. I will believe it when I see it after he was saved post Tennessee collapse.

[Tribal Warfare]

Originally Posted by kccrow

IWhite is exactly that type of player. He can cover, he's stout, he's one of the quickest, most decisive linebackers I've ever watched.

you also have to factor Veach's aggressive nature concerning players he covets in the draft.

Andy has retorted that Brett wears him down with Veach's obsession with certain prospects like Mahomes and Fletcher Cox.

[O.city]

Darby just tore his ACL last night, so that's probably out of play.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

In my opinion, the choice would come down to stud DT versus stud ILB. I think Bosa and Ferrell are going top 3 and I do project 1 and 3 respectively at this point if it's the Raiders and 49ers in those spots. I have a QB to the Giants sandwiched in between. After that, there is a significant drop off in edge talent even to Josh Allen who is pretty good. I don't have a CB rated as a top 10 talent to this point, although that rating is far from anything at this point. The closest is Greedy Williams. Now, the big argument is DT in my opinion, and there are some monsters this year. That said, I think the defensive tackle position is pretty stacked for the Chiefs IF they do make a move to a 4-3. If I didn't project the Chiefs moving to a 4-3 and I'm projecting Speaks to remain at OLB, then I'd be all-in on a DT/DE prospect. That said, I probably also wouldn't be trading Dee Ford away to get here. So, for me, I'm taking the best ILB prospect that I've seen since Patrick Willis coming out. The reasoning I have is that I think the Chiefs weakest spot on the defense is at linebacker. They struggle in coverage and they struggle coming up in run support. This team needs a leader, a play caller, and an enforcer on the inside. They lack one. White is exactly that type of player. He can cover, he's stout, he's one of the quickest, most decisive linebackers I've ever watched.

The other issue is that you're locked into Hitchens for another season; no getting out of that deal next year and frankly it's not easy escaping it after 2020 but it's manageable.

I haven't seen White play enough to say this is a bad choice, but I will say that White had better truly be a once in a decade kind of ILB and not just the best ILB in this year's draft. Because you're either layering Hitchens and his $9 million cap figure in 2019 or you're drafting a sub-package player in White for a year.

If all he is is 2019's best ILB, then wait until 2020 to get your ILB and move on from Hitchens then while getting a desperately needed CB in 2019. In the limited amount of time I've watched LSU, I've actually liked their OTHER corner that nobody talks about much as much as Williams; Fulton. I don't know if he'll skyrocket up draft boards or not but man he looks dynamic. There are remarkable tools there.

Bottome line is that I just don't see a way around absolutely having to get a new corner. I didn't like the idea of paying market price for Darby even before he got injured. Middle-class corners are fool's gold, IMO. Coach those guys up; develop them or scheme for them. You don't pay for them, IMO.

The idea of franchising/trading Ford is an interesting one, but I think I might just prefer paying him, keeping the pass-rush as dynamic as it is and supplementing the secondary through the draft.