Mellinger: Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver his best season

[DaFace]

Though I know this thread will undoubtedly turn into yet another Alex Smith sucks bitch fest, I thought this was a well-thought-out and reasonable take on the entire Alex Smith situation.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...#storylink=cpy

Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver the best season of his career
BY SAM MELLINGER
smellinger@kcstar.com

Alex Smith can thank the position he plays and the Royals’ run to last year’s World Series, because by now there is no question that his name is the easiest way to start an argument in Kansas City.

Smith is the Chiefs’ quarterback, and three years into his time here, he understands the baggage that comes with that title. He is the eighth backup from somewhere else to start for the Chiefs in the 37 years since they won a game with a quarterback they drafted. He is, depending on how you do the math, the sixth primary quarterback in the 21 years since the Chiefs won a game in the playoffs.

There are those of us who think Smith is a good quarterback. Not great, mind you, but smart and talented in ways that can be accentuated with the right pieces around him.

And there are those of you who think Smith is a noodle-armed, overly risk-averse anvil with a fittingly dull name — a dud at the most important position in American sports.

Those of us on Team Alex like to talk nuance, and bring up the fact that he was drafted by the NFL’s equivalent of the 2005 Royals, a franchise that gave him six coordinators and a botched shoulder surgery in seven years. To us, last year with the Chiefs, Smith showed only that it’s hard to play quarterback when the offensive line often resembles a grade-school game of red rover.

Those of you on the other side are beyond sick of all of that, wondering what excuses we’ll come up with now that Smith is surrounded by a dynamic set of playmakers, an improved (if still suspect) line, and (finally) the same coaches for a third straight year.

And, well … on that point we have no comeback. This is an important year for Smith, and for those of us who believe he has the goods.

If Smith does not have the best year of his career, something has gone wrong. If Smith does not have the best year of his career, and Jeremy Maclin has not suffered an injury and the offensive line is better than a year ago, then something has gone wrong with Smith.

A huge chunk of the Chiefs’ success depends on that not happening.

A huge chunk of their success depends on Smith proving he is more than a guy good enough to almost win with.

-----

Alex Smith is about to have the best of his 10 seasons in the NFL because, finally, the context is right.

He should’ve never been the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. We know that now, and not just because Aaron Rodgers was the second quarterback taken. Smith wasn’t ready. Wasn’t particularly close to ready.

He wasn’t even 21 years old when the 49ers gave him the keys to their disoriented franchise. More reporters covered his first NFL practice than all but his last college game, and the experience spooked him. He admits that now. Says it took years — four, five, maybe more — to get past.

That’s on him. This is where the blame game heats up, so that’s important to say. Smith is not in a position to complain here. He is 31 years old and has been paid well over $60 million during a career that has so far included a 1-2 playoff record. The 49ers should’ve given Smith more support, but he should’ve been better, too.

There have been successes and failures, and he owns the quarterback’s responsibility for both. But he has never been in a position this teed up for success. Not even those last few seasons in San Francisco, when he came within a freak special-teams mistake of the Super Bowl one year and the next season was benched after returning from a concussion despite leading the league in completion percentage.

In Smith’s first five seasons in San Francisco, he needed a competent organization. In his last two seasons there, he needed one that believed in him.

Here, finally, he has both.

This is why some of us believe he is about to have the best season of his career.

-----

Smith’s strengths are mostly subtle and widely misunderstood. He brings an element of certainty in a game defined by chaos. His quick feet, good instincts on when to break the pocket, and knack for avoiding the hardest collisions are particularly helpful as the Chiefs try to sort out the offensive line.

Game manager has become an overused and somewhat ambiguous term in football, but part of what makes evaluating Smith difficult is that there are not a lot of plays on either extreme. For the most part, he does not throw the boneheaded interception. For the most part, he does not create touchdowns from his own awesomeness. He is more Muzak than Metallica.

But the strengths are there, and not just in the sense that — particularly with Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin and a potentially great defense — avoiding mistakes is a terrific thing.

There was a play last year in Arizona, where Smith ran away from a sack, creating extra time, and threw on the run into a window that hadn’t yet opened. The play probably should’ve been a 6-yard loss. It was a 29-yard gain. It was a terrific play, brilliantly executed, and symbolic in its subtlety.

The window does not exist when Smith makes this pass. pic.twitter.com/mAO8R2l9uH

— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

But Smith’s biggest strength is accuracy. At the wonderful Pro Football Focus, they calculate accuracy percentage by taking away drops, spikes, and throw-aways. In their calculations, Smith was at 79.8 percent last season, behind only Drew Brees.

Now, some of that, yes, is a lack of downfield passing. No quarterback threw deep less often than Smith last year. It is an acknowledged point of improvement, both by Smith and Reid.

This is where those of us who believe in Smith are on the hook this year. Because a large part of believing in Smith means believing that his hesitancy to throw deep is at least as much about what he’s been surrounded by.

It’s not just about the offensive line — you need time to throw deep. It’s also about the receivers. Smith has not had receivers capable of getting open down the field, or receivers he fully trusts.

It’s interesting that when Jason Avant signed with the Chiefs late last season, Smith seemed to trust him immediately. Avant is a respected veteran, but he was also cut by the Panthers and turned 32 this year. Still, Smith took chances with Avant that he had not taken before.

A risky deep ball, because Smith trusts the guy he's throwing to. pic.twitter.com/lSiuBaN5at

— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

There are reasons to believe that Maclin can have a much bigger impact. Training camp, practices, and preseason games have been full of examples of Smith focusing on Maclin. Smith seems willing to make throws to Maclin that he hasn’t made to anyone in Kansas City.

Here's a touchdown that didn't exist last year, because Smith didn't have a receiver good enough to make this play. pic.twitter.com/6o8TqyoWxV

— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

This is just practice and practice games, of course, so the consequences of failure are negligible. But common sense lines up with what we’ve seen.

Smith is conservative by nature, and he’s not all of the sudden turning into Brett Favre. But he doesn’t need to. The Chiefs don’t want that. They just need him to be willing to gamble a little more knowing he has better cards and a better understanding of what’s around him than at any point in his career.

Which is why this has to be the year.

-----

One of the problems with the argument about Alex Smith is that, like most arguments in politics and marriage, we all tend to cherry pick points without really listening to the other side.

But one of the tenets of Team Alex is a recognition of the reality that he is the best the Chiefs can do. He is not Aaron Rodgers, but he is not Matt Cassel, either. If the Chiefs had the first pick in 2012, instead of 2013, Smith would be somewhere else and Kansas City would be obsessed with Andrew Luck.

But, like a B student who has to study a little harder on the SAT, teams without that top-tier franchise quarterback have to work a little harder on the rest of the roster. In that way, Smith is in the best position of his career.

Assuming the offensive line is improved, there is more than enough around Smith for him to shake the notion that he is holding back the bigger cause. Those of us on his side of Kansas City’s biggest sports debate are counting on that.

If it doesn’t happen this year, we’re all out of excuses.

[Bugeater]

Aaaaand the standard response of blaming everyone but Alex.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

FINAL DRIVE
Opening play-> 25 yarder to Kelce
2nd and 25 (after Ware face mask penalty) -> 17 yard strike to Kelce
4th and 8 -> pass to conley gains 12 yards
4th and 2 -> First down to Sherman. Sets up the Ware TD

Yea he doesn't make big throws. Never.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by BeaverEater

Aaaaand the standard response of blaming everyone but Alex.

Reading comprehension, pal.

[Bugeater]

You're right. He'll make the big throw that doesn't quite win you the game. Every single time.

There's our common ground.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

He missed 1-2 opportunities, but then again Fisher/Fulton did a shit job with protection in key parts of the game. 4-5 receiver drops were a much bigger problem in this game. A stagnant run game didn't help the situation either.

The receiver drops were a problem. Though a tight throw to Kelce in the 3rd(?) likely results in a completed pass (it was a bad underthrow, though I was happy he took the shot).

I wish that Alex could carry us to a victory in critical games like this. I am not convinced he will ever do this for the Chiefs. He's done this in the regular season a few times (2014 against Buffalo and Seattle and 2016 against San Diego and Denver) come to mind. He almost did this against the Colts, and it's why I was generally on the pro-Alex train until the end of 2014/start of 2015.

I felt that 2015 was his make or break year. I said before 2016 that I felt he hit his ceiling in his divisional round, but he was welcome to prove me wrong. Looking back at this year, he simply did not prove that he deserved to be our starter in the future.

But, I am not paid to make these decisions, Dorsey and Reid are. I suppose he'll have another chance to make me eat **** in 2017.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Denver Game
3rd and 1 in the red zone: converts 5 yards to Conley
4th and 10 inside the 15: gains 11 yards to Tyreek
1st and Goal: TD strike to Tyreek
2 point conversion: bullet to Harris

Yea, Alex Smith can't make the big throws

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ8b60EBxW4

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Hard to say a guy has hit his ceiling when he his TD rate is identical, his pass completion% goes up, his QBR goes up, his sack numbers goes down 40%

ALL of this while his 12 million dollar wide receiver self admitted that he played like shit that entire season

Could you imagine what would happen to Matt Ryan's numbers if Julio Jones went down? Or if Luck lost TY hilton? Dalton without AJ green? Winston without Mike Evans?

****ing Philip Rivers just played his worst season in 10 years, you don't think the loss of Keenan Allen had anything to do with it?

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Denver Game
3rd and 1 in the red zone: converts 5 yards to Conley
4th and 10 inside the 15: gains 11 yards to Tyreek
1st and Goal: TD strike to Tyreek
2 point conversion: bullet to Harris

Yea, Alex Smith can't make the big throws

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ8b60EBxW4

Regular Season wins aren't going to do it for me.

I watched highlights of Pete Stoyanovich's 54 yard field goal against Denver over and over as a child.

The Chiefs beat the Super Bowl Champs that day. Unfortunately, they lost to Denver when it mattered. This has been the Chiefs way ever since 1970.

The Alex and Andy haven't proven that they can put together postseason performances when it matters. Yes, that means BIG throws when it matters.

You know what no one talks about in the Broncos-Ravens 2013 playoff matchup? The critical drops Jacoby Jones had in the game - the reason is that Joe kept throwing to him until it lead them to the biggest upset of the postseason.

Drops are going to happen. To Alex, they're devastating, because he rarely takes these kinds of risks throughout the game. For us to win, Alex has to be winning to take more chances throughout the next season and postseason. He had the chance to lead us to victory against the Steelers, and he simply didn't pull the trigger.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Yea, well thank God Dorsey doesn't give a flying **** what you think. Enjoy the ride or get lost.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Enjoy the ride or get lost.

Yeah we know. We were told the same thing in the Pioli era.

This is a much more enjoyable ride - but it feels awfully similar to what we had with Marty.

[Mephistopheles Janx]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Yea, well thank God Dorsey doesn't give a flying **** what you think. Enjoy the ride or get lost.

If AFCW championship banners are your thing... this team is custom built for you.

[Chiefspants]

If the Chiefs draft a quarterback in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft and have him sit behind Alex - I would not bash Smith and will fully support him and the coaching staff throughout the 2017 season. That's all it will take for my vote of confidence.

We've seen too many generational players and talented teams leave KC without a title, planning for the future, even if it meant another year of Alex, is something long overdue and something I'd proudly get behind.

[nkd]

I really don't think its Alex, yes he could improve. I think its Andy who gets conservative. He relies too much on his D and won't take chances in a close game. Look what happened against steelers. They tried to come back and started playing well in third quarter but the damn drops hurt them on an excellent drive. Kelce was too dumb for his own good on that drive. He converted 3rd and 20 and then another drop on 3rd and 4 to keep the drive moving. Andy tries to kill the clock all game in a close game. He did that on the last drive too. Too much time wasted after 1st and goal. they had like 5 minutes. Their goal should have been to make a quick touchdown and then try to get the ball back with 2 timeouts still remaining. Instead, he wasted a timeout and wasted so much time with runs.

[Mephistopheles Janx]

Originally Posted by nkd

I really don't think its Alex, yes he could improve. I think its Andy who gets conservative. He relies too much on his D and won't take chances in a close game. Look what happened against steelers. They tried to come back and started playing well in third quarter but the damn drops hurt them on an excellent drive. Kelce was too dumb for his own good on that drive. He converted 3rd and 20 and then another drop on 3rd and 4 to keep the drive moving. Andy tries to kill the clock all game in a close game. He did that on the last drive too. Too much time wasted after 1st and goal. they had like 5 minutes. Their goal should have been to make a quick touchdown and then try to get the ball back with 2 timeouts still remaining. Instead, he wasted a timeout and wasted so much time with runs.

Agreed. Andy, though, doesn't make Alex miss open targets. Andy doesn't force Alex to throw short of the sticks on third down. Andy didn't force Alex to have the LOWEST Yards in the Air of ANY starter in the NFL.

sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2016/

i.imgur.com/py5PVAl.jpg

(still cannot hot link)

[Bigdaddy]

Alex is better than Kaepernick, that's all that matters.