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Old 11-28-2016, 01:25 PM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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NYT Playoff Simulator is up for 2016
I don't know about you guys, but I loved this thing last year. It's similar to cdcox's old forecasting software and is lots of fun for seeing how our chances at the playoffs shift in various scenarios.

League-wide view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html

Chiefs view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html
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Old 12-18-2016, 06:40 PM   #76
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Oakland still has two tough games left vs Indy and @ Denver.
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Old 12-18-2016, 06:41 PM   #77
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It's pretty simple for the division. Now that the Raiders have won, we need to have a BETTER record than them through the final two games. If they lose one, we need to win both. If they lose both (unlikely), we have to win one.
Yup
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Old 12-18-2016, 06:41 PM   #78
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Oh, and in terms of raw percentages, it gives us a 98% chance of making the playoffs, but only a 25% chance of getting a bye at this point.
God dammit Andy
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Old 12-18-2016, 06:43 PM   #79
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It's pretty simple for the division. Now that the Raiders have won, we need to have a BETTER record than them through the final two games. If they lose one, we need to win both. If they lose both (unlikely), we have to win one.
We don't need a better record than them. We get the second seed if we have the same record.

Oh misread, you were just talking the record of the 2 games not season overall.
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Old 12-18-2016, 06:44 PM   #80
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We don't need a better record than them. We get the second seed if we have the same record.
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"In the final two games" is important (though I concede that my "through" may have been confusing).
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Old 12-18-2016, 06:44 PM   #81
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We don't need a better record than them. We get the second seed if we have the same record.
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Better record in just the last 2 games.
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Old 12-18-2016, 06:44 PM   #82
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"In the final two games" is important.
Yeah I edited my post.
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Old 12-18-2016, 06:44 PM   #83
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We don't need a better record than them. We get the second seed if we have the same record.
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They're 11-3 right now.

We're 10-4.

They'll have to lose one.
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Old 12-18-2016, 06:58 PM   #84
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They're 11-3 right now.

We're 10-4.

They'll have to lose one.
I know. I thought he was talking about better season record overall which we don't need.
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Old 12-18-2016, 07:00 PM   #85
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Chiefs have to hope they win out and the Raiders lose one, or they're traveling to Houston or Pittsburgh. If they go to Houston they'll have a decent chance to win and then go to New England. If they go to Pittsburgh they're likely toast.
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:43 AM   #86
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Chiefs have to hope they win out and the Raiders lose one, or they're traveling to Houston or Pittsburgh. If they go to Houston they'll have a decent chance to win and then go to New England. If they go to Pittsburgh they're likely burnt toast.
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:48 AM   #87
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Playing at Arrowhead doesn't seem to be an advantage for this team. You can argue they are a better road team. The bye week to get healthy is what's most important.
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:49 AM   #88
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Chiefs have to hope they win out and the Raiders lose one, or they're traveling to Houston or Pittsburgh. If they go to Houston they'll have a decent chance to win and then go to New England. If they go to Pittsburgh they're likely toast.
You are ignoring the fact that Tennessee is hittingting their peak and Houston just benched their QB. Yes, they are part of the same division...
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:54 AM   #89
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Playing at Arrowhead doesn't seem to be an advantage for this team. You can argue they are a better road team. The bye week to get healthy is what's most important.
The bye week also gives you one less chance to lose.

It seems to me like the damage done by losing the 2 seed is...

1. 2 chances now to get eliminated instead of one.
2. Converted one home game into two road games.
3. Losing a bye week for injury purposes (which I think is notably less important than the first two things).

I'm not sure the level of competition changes that much moving from 2 to 5, but there's now twice as much of it.
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Old 12-19-2016, 11:04 AM   #90
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Get the 5 seed. Both us and the 6 seed win the WC game then we go smash the Faid again.

Would probably get destroyed in NE but beating Oakland 3 times would be worth it.
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