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Old 11-28-2016, 01:25 PM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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NYT Playoff Simulator is up for 2016
I don't know about you guys, but I loved this thing last year. It's similar to cdcox's old forecasting software and is lots of fun for seeing how our chances at the playoffs shift in various scenarios.

League-wide view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html

Chiefs view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html
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Old 12-01-2016, 10:45 PM   #16
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Old 12-01-2016, 11:24 PM   #17
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Old 12-01-2016, 11:29 PM   #18
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So basically this is telling me that if the Chiefs beat the Raiders and Broncos we have a 75% chance of getting a first round bye (regardless of whatever else happens). This week's game is the least meaningful to everything but the #1 seed.
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Old 12-02-2016, 04:01 AM   #19
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Gronk is out. AFC wide open.

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Old 12-02-2016, 08:35 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
So basically this is telling me that if the Chiefs beat the Raiders and Broncos we have a 75% chance of getting a first round bye (regardless of whatever else happens). This week's game is the least meaningful to everything but the #1 seed.
If I'm Reid I'm not playing Maclin until Thursday night and if he is, give him a few looks on curls or quick slants. He needs be healthy as possible for Oakland
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Old 12-02-2016, 08:55 AM   #21
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Gronk is out. AFC wide open.

Now or never
There has never been a better chance to get to the Super Bowl in my lifetime.

Maybe the one year with Montana. But otherwise...
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Old 12-02-2016, 08:57 AM   #22
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There has never been a better chance to get to the Super Bowl in my lifetime.

Maybe the one year with Montana. But otherwise...
Dude. Just don't. Please, for your sake.
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Old 12-02-2016, 09:13 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
So basically this is telling me that if the Chiefs beat the Raiders and Broncos we have a 75% chance of getting a first round bye (regardless of whatever else happens). This week's game is the least meaningful to everything but the #1 seed.
I was noticing too that the Falcons game doesn't have much implication. You want to win, of course, but it's really the AFC West games that matter.
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Old 12-02-2016, 09:23 AM   #24
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I was noticing too that the Falcons game doesn't have much implication. You want to win, of course, but it's really the AFC West games that matter.
Yeah, obviously the AFC games carry more weight for playoff seeding... the rest of the stretch though, if the goal is fighting for that bye - then every game is a playoff game for the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos at this point.

Chiefs have the overall WC advantage at this point with 8 wins. There are 5 teams at or above .500, sitting 1-2 games out.

So, anything can move things around down the stretch. Will be interesting to see if the Texans can hold off the Titans.
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Old 12-02-2016, 09:23 AM   #25
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Thanks for sharing this. Very cool stuff!
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Old 12-04-2016, 11:37 PM   #26
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AFCW update after today's games:



They now have us with a better chance than the Raiders to win the division. Interesting.
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Old 12-04-2016, 11:42 PM   #27
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I know it's asking for alot, but if we swept the division this year it would be ****ing awesome.
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Old 12-06-2016, 05:24 PM   #28
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Overall, the Chiefs have

...a #1 seed in 11% of scenarios
...a #2 seed in 29% of scenarios
...a #3 seed in 2% of scenarios
...a #4 seed in 0% of scenarios
...a #5 seed in 40% of scenarios
...a #6 seed in 11% of scenarios
...are out of the playoffs in 8% of scenarios

A win over the Raiders changes those figures to ...

...a #1 seed in 17% of scenarios
...a #2 seed in 47% of scenarios
...a #3 seed in 1% of scenarios
...a #4 seed in 0% of scenarios
...a #5 seed in 26% of scenarios
...a #6 seed in 6% of scenarios
...are out of the playoffs in 2% of scenarios

It won't happen, but theoretically a loss to the Raiders would hypothetically change those figures to ...

...a #1 seed in 1% of scenarios
...a #2 seed in 11% of scenarios
...a #3 seed in 0% of scenarios
...a #4 seed in 0% of scenarios
...a #5 seed in 58% of scenarios
...a #6 seed in 17% of scenarios
...are out of the playoffs in 13% of scenarios

In summary, this is kind of a big game.
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Old 12-06-2016, 05:34 PM   #29
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In summary, this is kind of a big game.
Yep. For the most part, a loss ensures that we're playing for a wild card. A win puts us in the driver's seat for a bye (though there will still be work to be done).
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Old 12-06-2016, 05:34 PM   #30
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AFCW update after today's games:



They now have us with a better chance than the Raiders to win the division. Interesting.

Raiders are at KC, at SD, at Denver

That ain't easy.
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