Chiefs Smith signs with Raiders - Page 7

**chiefforlife** · 07:05 AM

Raiders add cornerback Sean Smith
Posted by Michael David Smith on March 10, 2016, 7:55 AM EST
Sean Smith AP

The best available player in our Free Agent Hot 100 has been snapped up.

Former Chiefs cornerback Sean Smith has agreed to a deal with the Raiders.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports that it’s a four-year deal worth $40 million, with $20 million guaranteed.

Heading into free agency, Smith was our No. 14 player available. The 13 ahead of him have all either signed a contract or been franchised.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...ck-sean-smith/

A 2009 second-round pick of the Dolphins, Smith played four seasons in Miami before signing a three-year, $18 million deal with the Chiefs in free agency. Now Smith is on his third team, and his third contract.

DJ's left nut · 03-10-2016, 11:02 AM

I'd still be willing to take a DE if the right guy was sitting there.

Poe's still a fluid situation and we know Howard can play NT in this system. If you can get a DE that's capable of stepping in for Howard if we let Poe walk, that's not a bad use of a pick. Moreover, we still don't know if DeVito will be back and Bailey's about to get to the more expensive part of his deal (after disappointing quite a bit this year).

I'm still leaning CB or DL. I think those are areas of legitimate need for the team and I also think that's where the value will be in this draft due to the depth of the available prospects. There are going to be some damn good DL and CB prospects available to us at 28.

**the Talking Can** · 03-10-2016, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Is it really? Or do you really just like Lynch?

I know everyone always moans about the 'wait 'till next year' answer, but look at it objectively and isn't next year really a better time to take the QB?

What starters will need to be replaced next season? As I see it, none of them. The full allotment of starters on this team appear to be under control for the next 2 seasons at least (presuming a Berry extension and the ability to tag Poe). We'll also have our full complement of draft picks. Moreover, we'll get max benefit from the QB as well.

If we take a QB now, we'll be looking at almost certainly 2 years of his rookie contract being burned as a backup. If we take him next season, we'll probably only burn one of those years off and be able to move on from Smith in 2018 when his cap hit is $20 million and his dead money is only $3.6. That was always the most likely year to move on from him and it remains so. We would then have a full 4 seasons of the rookie QB still to use up before we have to pay him like a grown up.

We wouldn't be looking to replace starters in the 2017 draft and we'd have all of our picks plus any potential comp picks. I figure that Smith and Schwartz will offset but it's also possible that Allen's shocker of a deal offsets Schwartz, giving us a 'net' of Smith's deal and Daniel's surprisingly expensive contract. That could realistically net us 2 fourth rounders in '17.

Most of the ceteris paribus sort of factors here point to 2017 being the better year to draft a QB and by a fair amount. The only wild card truly is the available talent.

If you believe that Paxton Lynch (should he be available) is a legitimate franchise guy then you go ahead and take him. But you're not taking him because the time is ideal - you're taking him because the player is ideal and the timing is tolerable.

both

i don't care about 'burning 2 years of his contract'...if you think he's the guy, take him...sitting for 1,2,3 years makes no difference to me, acquiring him is the only thing that matters

Lynch, if he fell, would be the best raw materials in a QB to ever stare us in the face...

we can absolutely afford to take him now, we have only 1 real need, a cb...but a qbotf trumps that, if available

O.city · 03-10-2016, 11:03 AM

Yeah, dl is probably the logical way to go.

CB too.

O.city · 03-10-2016, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

both

i don't care about 'burning 2 years of his contract'...if you think he's the guy, take him...sitting for 1,2,3 years makes no difference to me, acquiring him is the only thing that matters

Lynch, if he fell, would be the best raw materials in a QB to ever stare us in the face...

we can absolutely afford to take him now, we have only 1 real need, a cb...but a qbotf trumps that, if available

Financially, having a guy sit for 3 years just doesn't work. He's gonna then start year 4 and you've gotta make decisions in the osweiler form at that point.

**the Talking Can** · 03-10-2016, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Financially, having a guy sit for 3 years just doesn't work. He's gonna then start year 4 and you've gotta make decisions in the osweiler form at that point.

well, he wouldn't sit for 3 years likely...and still, don't care

if he's the guy, you take him and figure it out later

staylor26 · 03-10-2016, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

FWIW Mackensie Alexander ran a 4.4 and had a 37.5 vertical at his pro day today.

Those are pretty good #'s for him.

I just hate Pro Days bc the 40 times are always better.

DJ's left nut · 03-10-2016, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Financially, having a guy sit for 3 years just doesn't work. He's gonna then start year 4 and you've gotta make decisions in the osweiler form at that point.

And again - you're seeing very few teams win championship with QBs on big money deals right now.

It's not just 'get your franchise QB', it's 'get a franchise QB for cheap'. The longer you have that, the longer your window is truly open.

Because the moment you're paying Matt Ryan $25 million, your window has slammed shut. Even Drew Brees at his money is getting in the way of the Saints winning championships. The Pats won when Brady took a paycut, likewise with the Broncos. Rookie deals and/or veterans who've been paid and are looking to win one last ring. Teams just are not winning championships on the backs of quarterbacks sitting on that big 2nd contract.

Maximizing the number of cheap years you get from your QB, especially if 1 or 2 of those can come after he's already learned the ropes, is the best way to win that title, IMO. If you can get a guy who sits the bench for a year, takes a beating as a starter in year 2, hits his stride in year 3 and then kicks ass and takes names in years 4 and 5, you're just way way WAY ahead of the game and in so doing, you've effectively doubled the length of time that you have your best shot at a title (years 4 and 5, instead of just year 5).

O.city · 03-10-2016, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And again - you're seeing very few teams win championship with QBs on big money deals right now.

It's not just 'get your franchise QB', it's 'get a franchise QB for cheap'. The longer you have that, the longer your window is truly open.

Because the moment you're paying Matt Ryan $25 million, your window has slammed shut. Even Drew Brees at his money is getting in the way of the Saints winning championships. The Pats won when Brady took a paycut, likewise with the Broncos. Rookie deals and/or veterans who've been paid and are looking to win one last ring. Teams just are not winning championships on the backs of quarterbacks sitting on that big 2nd contract.

Maximizing the number of cheap years you get from your QB, especially if 1 or 2 of those can come after he's already learned the ropes, is the best way to win that title, IMO. If you can get a guy who sits the bench for a year, takes a beating as a starter in year 2, hits his stride in year 3 and then kicks ass and takes names in years 4 and 5, you're just way way WAY ahead of the game and in so doing, you've effectively doubled the length of time that you have your best shot at a title (years 4 and 5, instead of just year 5).

I think franchises are starting to catch up with this. Or maybe it's just that there aren't any big qbs worth a big deal, but with th cap going up, for the chiefs right now, having smith at what we do is pretty nice.

Apparently they're expecting a big jump in the cap next year as well.

**the Talking Can** · 03-10-2016, 11:18 AM

unless you can guarantee that a qbotf (i.e. someone you believe is a qbotf) will be available to you at whatever pick you have next year, this is all a waste of time

when 'the guy' is there, you take him...absolutely nothing else matters

if you think lynch is the guy, you draft him...the future is a lottery pick, this pick this year is a gift waiting to be opened

DJ's left nut · 03-10-2016, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

if you think lynch is the guy, you draft him...the future is a lottery pick, this pick this year is a gift waiting to be opened

I don't disagree.

But that's why I say it's the player and not the timing that dictates.

If Dorsey/Reid believe that Lynch is going to be a premier QB in this league - okay, works for me. But it's still not ideal. Ideally that guy would be available next season.

It's tolerable timing, but not perfect.

O.city · 03-10-2016, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

unless you can guarantee that a qbotf (i.e. someone you believe is a qbotf) will be available to you at whatever pick you have next year, this is all a waste of time

when 'the guy' is there, you take him...absolutely nothing else matters

if you think lynch is the guy, you draft him...the future is a lottery pick, this pick this year is a gift waiting to be opened

If they feel that way, yes, do it.

But the problem I see is you just don't know if he's the guy for atleast 2 or 3 years after you draft him.

RunKC · 03-10-2016, 11:25 AM

The Jets, Broncos and Browns are all fighting for Colin Kaepernick. That's 3 teams that are looking hard for a QB, and SF will make that 3 if one of those teams get him.

Add the Rams who are piddling Case ****ing Keenum.

I don't see any way the top 3 QB's even make it to pick 20.

**the Talking Can** · 03-10-2016, 11:27 AM

no sure i understand the jets bailing on fitzpatrick in order to trade picks for kaperwhatever

DJ's left nut · 03-10-2016, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

The Jets, Broncos and Browns are all fighting for Colin Kaepernick. That's 3 teams that are looking hard for a QB, and SF will make that 3 if one of those teams get him.

Add the Rams who are piddling Case ****ing Keenum.

I don't see any way the top 3 QB's even make it to pick 20.

Yeah, if the Jets lose Fitzpatrick, I think you're probably right.

I figured on the Browns, 49ers and Rams snapping on the 'big 3' by pick 15. If the 49ers trade away Kaepernick, it's all but certain.

It still doesn't seem likely that Lynch falls to 28.

staylor26 · 03-10-2016, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

The Jets, Broncos and Browns are all fighting for Colin Kaepernick. That's 3 teams that are looking hard for a QB, and SF will make that 3 if one of those teams get him.

Add the Rams who are piddling Case ****ing Keenum.

I don't see any way the top 3 QB's even make it to pick 20.

This. I love Lynch, but I haven't even entertained the discussion because I'm 100% sure he's gone before we pick.

03-10-2016, 07:03 AM
chiefforlife Colorado Chief Fan Join Date: Feb 2006 Casino cash: $5493147	Smith signs with Raiders Raiders add cornerback Sean Smith Posted by Michael David Smith on March 10, 2016, 7:55 AM EST Sean Smith AP The best available player in our Free Agent Hot 100 has been snapped up. Former Chiefs cornerback Sean Smith has agreed to a deal with the Raiders. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports that it’s a four-year deal worth $40 million, with $20 million guaranteed. Heading into free agency, Smith was our No. 14 player available. The 13 ahead of him have all either signed a contract or been franchised. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...ck-sean-smith/ A 2009 second-round pick of the Dolphins, Smith played four seasons in Miami before signing a three-year, $18 million deal with the Chiefs in free agency. Now Smith is on his third team, and his third contract. Last edited by chiefforlife; 03-10-2016 at 07:05 AM.. Reason: adding Link
Posts: 5,717

03-10-2016, 11:02 AM	#91
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $-600901	I'd still be willing to take a DE if the right guy was sitting there. Poe's still a fluid situation and we know Howard can play NT in this system. If you can get a DE that's capable of stepping in for Howard if we let Poe walk, that's not a bad use of a pick. Moreover, we still don't know if DeVito will be back and Bailey's about to get to the more expensive part of his deal (after disappointing quite a bit this year). I'm still leaning CB or DL. I think those are areas of legitimate need for the team and I also think that's where the value will be in this draft due to the depth of the available prospects. There are going to be some damn good DL and CB prospects available to us at 28. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
Posts: 66,639

03-10-2016, 11:03 AM	#93
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $-505936	Yeah, dl is probably the logical way to go. CB too.
Posts: 84,126

03-10-2016, 11:18 AM	#99
the Talking Can Supporter Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: street Casino cash: $9412208	unless you can guarantee that a qbotf (i.e. someone you believe is a qbotf) will be available to you at whatever pick you have next year, this is all a waste of time when 'the guy' is there, you take him...absolutely nothing else matters if you think lynch is the guy, you draft him...the future is a lottery pick, this pick this year is a gift waiting to be opened __________________ Clark Hunt: "Thank god for the Dominican pool boy"
Posts: 51,585

03-10-2016, 11:25 AM	#102
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $-1380389	The Jets, Broncos and Browns are all fighting for Colin Kaepernick. That's 3 teams that are looking hard for a QB, and SF will make that 3 if one of those teams get him. Add the Rams who are piddling Case ****ing Keenum. I don't see any way the top 3 QB's even make it to pick 20.
Posts: 52,015

03-10-2016, 11:27 AM	#103
the Talking Can Supporter Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: street Casino cash: $9412208	no sure i understand the jets bailing on fitzpatrick in order to trade picks for kaperwhatever __________________ Clark Hunt: "Thank god for the Dominican pool boy"
Posts: 51,585