2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[Archie F. Swin]

Check out @SportsDayDFW's Tweet: https://twitter.com/SportsDayDFW/sta...71271602622464

[Sure-Oz]

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin

Check out @SportsDayDFW's Tweet: https://twitter.com/SportsDayDFW/sta...71271602622464

Royals need to make a move soon to get RF or 3B help....to stay within a few games

[Bowser]

Heh. Five years ago Soria and Nathan on the same team would have been deadly. Tigers trying to counter our Wade Davis/Greag Holland setup?

[Three7s]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

Royals need to make a move soon to get RF or 3B help....to stay within a few games

Marlon Byrd anyone?

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Heh. Five years ago Soria and Nathan on the same team would have been deadly. Tigers trying to counter our Wade Davis/Greag Holland setup?

We gave up Soria for literally nothing.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Three7s

I've always rooted for the Cubs. They're like the Royals in a lot of ways, and for the wrong reasons. I hope they have long-term success.

I went to school in Iowa City. Tons of Cubs fans. I hope they all go to hell. Terrible human beings

[Sure-Oz]

Originally Posted by Three7s

Marlon Byrd anyone?

They should

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Heh. Five years ago Soria and Nathan on the same team would have been deadly. Tigers trying to counter our Wade Davis/Greag Holland setup?

Soria with anyone is a great combo. Dude came back strong from his second tommy john.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

They should

If you want to get worse, by all means replace Jarrod Dyson (2.3 WAR) with Byrd (0.8 WAR).

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...50&position=OF

[KChiefs1]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/j...-royals-070414

msn.foxsports.com
Royals need Big Game James to get back on track

Jeff Sullivan

FanGraphs

JUL 04, 2014 10:30a ET

In his last nine starts, James Shields is 3-1, but with a 5.43 ERA and batters are hitting .323 against him.

If the Royals make the playoffs, would it justify the controversial James Shields trade from a couple offseasons ago?

In December 2012, Kansas City gave up top prospect Wil Myers in a seven-player trade with Tampa Bay to acquire Shields. Others in the deal were Wade Davis and a player to be named later, eventually Elliot Johnson, to the Royals, while the Rays added Jake Odorizzi and minor leaguers Patrick Leonard and Mike Montgomery.

It's too complicated for a simple answer, which might mean the answer is no. There's a lot to take into consideration. But it has to be noted that, while the Royals are hanging out around the fringes of the race, right now Shields isn't even really helping them. If the idea was to bolster the rotation by adding a bona fide ace, then the Shields trade is more of a failure.

Tuesday night against the Twins, Shields allowed five runs — four earned — in five innings. Everyone's allowed the occasional stinker. In May, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw gave up seven runs to the Diamondbacks. In April, the M’s Felix Hernandez allowed 11 hits to the A's without one single whiff. Heck, last September, Shields gave up 10 runs to the Tigers and couldn't get out of the fourth.

It's only worth worrying about trends, but now Shields has put together a trend. He's not coming off an isolated stinker. Over his last nine starts, he's allowed fewer than three runs just once. The 32-year-old right-hander coughed up a .323 batting average with a 5.43 ERA.

A season that started well for Shields has taken a dreadful turn. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR), based on actual runs allowed, is 0.7. That puts him in the company of talents like Washington’s Stephen Strasburg and Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey, but that's little consolation, given their issues.


Though Shields has allowed 51 earned runs, he's also allowed a dozen unearned runs, meaning he's averaged 4.86 runs per nine innings. Of the 140-plus starters who've thrown at least 50 innings, Shields ranks 110th in that stat. While the Royals remain very much alive beyond the halfway point, there's very real concern that the staff workhorse is breaking down.

For Shields, this is bad timing in two ways.

First, obviously, is that his team is counting on him to be the ace of the rotation, and he's not pulling his weight. The Royals aren't a team that can afford having their good players underperform, and if Shields doesn't turn things around, they'll likely again fall short of the playoffs.

Second is a bigger-picture matter as Shields is due to become a free agent after the year. Certainly, Shields is far more focused on the task at hand, but he's months away from the open market, and he's something of a mess. No longer is a nine-figure contract a sure thing. Barring a much-improved second half that erases all worry, Shields will be a guy off an up-and-down year who turns 33 in December. His past durability could make people wonder about his future durability.

So what's the matter? Is it an injury? If it is, that doesn't show up in Shields' velocity. It doesn't show up in his movement, and Shields denies that he's in any kind of pain.

Is it just statistical noise? This possibility can’t be dismissed, because there's a lot more random noise than people would like to think, but given that Shields' strikeouts have dropped somewhat considerably, and given that he appears to be laboring, this doesn't seem like nothing. The likely culprit is inconsistent mechanics, but that's not very helpful, because basically all pitching problems come out of inconsistent mechanics.

Some have claimed that Shields is over-throwing. Some feel like he's over-striding. It's been asserted his head is off balance. Shields is trying to get smoother in the bullpen.

FanGraphs can't fix Shields' mechanics, but FG can get an idea of where he's really struggling the most.

FG keeps track of run values by pitch type, and though the numbers need to be used carefully, in theory FG ends up with a ranking of quality and performance. A good pitch — Ex: Kershaw's slider — will have a high run value, because it does a lot more good than bad. Pitches that get strikeouts and don't yield many hits? Those get high run values.

Shields' bread and butter for a while has been an outstanding changeup he's thrown to both righties and lefties. It's long been believed that Shields is in possession of one of the best changeups in baseball. Between 2011-13, by run value, Shields' changeup ranked third among changeups thrown by qualified pitchers. He used it a lot, and it did him a lot of good. The only pitchers with higher-ranking changeups were Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels and Seattle’s Hernandez. Reasonable enough.

Fast-forward to 2014.

Shields' other pitches are in the vicinity of normal. Most of his run values look OK. But the number for his changeup is eye-popping. By run value, among qualified starting pitchers, Shields' changeup ranks last. By at least one measure, Shields has had the least effective changeup in the majors, in terms of both results and frequency.

Shields, in turn, has reduced his changeup usage, throwing more cutters, but that's just compensatory, and it isn't good news when a pitcher has to throw less of his most highly-complimented pitch. Shields with a worse changeup is a worse pitcher.

The answer is somewhere in his mechanics. He still throws good changeups; he just throws them less consistently. Too many of them have been flat, as Shields has searched for a consistent release point. If Shields' changeup had been just OK, maybe this would be easier to dismiss as nothing. But it's significant to fall from the top of a table to the bottom. This is James Shields without his best weapon.

It’s safe to assume Shields will get at least a little better. He should come out of this to a large extent, and as bad as this stretch has been, in his first nine starts he had a 2.54 ERA with 56 strikeouts and just 12 walks. This stretch can’t be ignored. Unless he’s hiding an injury, there’s no reason Shields shouldn’t bounce back from his recent nine-game slump and be effective, if less effective than desired. It’s doubtful he's going to keep pushing five runs allowed per nine innings.

But there's a bigger trend at play, independent of the actual runs scoring. It started a year ago. A useful metric is strikeout rate minus walk rate — think of it as an improvement on strikeout-to-walk ratio. In this chart, observe Shields compared to the American League starting pitcher league average:

Shields remains better than average, but he's the least better than average that he's ever been, and there's a big dip between 2012-13. At Shields' peak, he was better than the average by about 6 or 7 percentage points. Now he's around 2 percentage points, which means even if Shields picks it up down the stretch, there's still very good reason to believe he's in decline.

It's not a 2014 thing; it's a 2013 thing that's carried over because declines generally don't just stop. As Shields loses his ability to put batters away, he'll be more prone to giving up long hits, and he's never been all that much for home run suppression. Fewer strikeouts mean more balls in play. Balls in play aren't Shields' friend. Especially when they go over the fence and aren't balls in play anymore.

Right now, James Shields is a pitcher without his best pitch. Because of his track record, he still has to be given the benefit of the doubt. He's had slumps before, but the Royals need for this to turn around in a hurry.

Even if it does turn around, the 2013 version of James Shields was a version missing some strikeouts, suggesting that the ability level has begun to sink. While teams will recognize Shields for what he's done when he's a free agent, those same teams can analyze numbers, even should Shields have a better second half.

The more distant concern is Shields' payday. The more pressing concern is Shields' delivery. FG believes a man they call Big Game James is no stranger to pressure.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Bowser

I was referring to this season (and our lack of tradable talent to bring in a piece to help them this season), but your point is still valid.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Reactions To A’s-Cubs Trade

By Zach Links [July 5, 2014 at 5:00pm CDT]
For weeks now, the baseball world has been waiting for the Cubs to line up trades for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Last night, Theo Epstein & Co. killed two birds with one stone and packaged both together in a deal with the A’s. In return for two of the most talked about pitchers on the trade block, the Cubs received top prospect Addison Russell, outfield prospect Billy McKinney, and pitcher Dan Straily. Here’s a look at some of the reactions to the blockbuster deal.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (on Twitter) says the Cubs are taking an interesting approach by stockpiling top position player prospects and putting off acquiring pitching. Dierkes can see Straily providing Travis Wood-like value for the Cubs since teams teams pay big money for innings from a No. 4 type (link). Meanwhile, the deal makes the rest of the trade season kind of anti-climactic for Cub fans after their two best trade chips were moved on the Fourth of July (link).
Before pulling the trigger on the deal with the Cubs, the A’s discussed a swap involving Russell with the Rays for David Price, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports. However, nothing ever materialized on that front.
The Yankees exchanged proposals with the Cubs on both Samardzija and Hammel, but could not compete with Russell’s inclusion, tweets FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.
In a separate tweet, Rosenthal reports the A’s will not flip Hammel as they will need him to win the AL West.
ESPN’s Keith Law writes in an Insider piece (subscription required) the A’s and Cubs both significantly impacted their franchise, albeit with different timelines in mind.
The early word is the Cubs are not looking to make any moves from their shortstop stockpile as the Mets have nothing brewing with Chicago and the Yankees have checked but to no avail, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links).
Moneyball isn’t about on-base percentage or any one statistic, it’s about exploiting what is over- or under-valued and prospects are over-valued at present, writes Sherman. However, he notes (link) Javier Baez and Russell are big guys who might not stay at shortstop, so Starlin Castro may still be the Cubs’ long-term guy.
The A’s may have made themselves the favorites for 2014, but the Cubs ultimately may have won the deal, writes CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman. “He’s Barry Larkin with power,” one rival baseball executive said of Russell.
The loss of Russell, in particular, could end up haunting the A’s, whose current shortstop Jed Lowrie is a free agent after this season, but GM Billy Beane has never been afraid to take an unconventional route, writes Rosenthal.
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle echoes Rosenthal and adds the trade may point towards an extension for Lowrie and this wouldn’t be a bad time to do it.
The trade demonstrates Beane’s burning desire to win now and now could be his only window for winning a World Series, according to MLB.com’s Jane Lee.
Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com calls this trade fascinating because of the guts it took to swing such a deal between two men (Epstein and Beane) who defy convention for the way the game of baseball changes.
The Cubs signed Hammel to a one-year, $6MM deal in late January and in July he has netted them one of the five best prospects in baseball, notes Passan (via Twitter).
Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron (via Twitter) is usually against trading great young talent, but likes the trade for the A’s since present wins have so much value to them right now. Of course, he likes the swap from the Cubs‘ perspective, too.
Mike Petriello of Fangraphs writes the trade is a win-win for both the A’s and Cubs, but the real winner could be the Rays, who just saw two of the top available pitchers dealt while only one contender benefited increasing the demand for Price.
Addison Russell (Twitter link) is excited to be joining forces with Kris Bryant.
Billy McKinney called the A’s an “amazing and classy organization” and is “excited to start and (sic) new chapter in the Cubs organization” (Twitter links).
Dan Straily also tweeted his appreciation of the A’s organization, but is looking forward to beginning the next chapter of his career with the Cubs (Twitter links).

Edward Creech contributed to this post.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

If you want to get worse, by all means replace Jarrod Dyson (2.3 WAR) with Byrd (0.8 WAR).

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...50&position=OF

Fangraphs hates Marlon Byrd for some reason, but Baseball Reference has him as a 1.8 WAR guy, and I trust their WAR formula more than Fangraphs.

Dyson has provided a lot of value with his defense and baserunning, but at the end of the day remains a guy who can't play everyday because of his struggles against LHP and who is more likely to regress to his mean offensively given extended time ( which is .260/.330/.340). If he could post a .700 OPS with his defense and baserunning as an everyday player, that probably plays up. But just like last year, I'd expect his offensive numbers to come down given more at-bats (and more towards his career averages).

For a team that desperately needs more offense, especially RH hitters AND power, Byrd would be a very nice fit at a very affordable cost (both in prospects and salary.) Dyson is proving to be a very reliable No. 4 OF, but he's not a guy you want to start for a winning team (especially since Cain is not going to give you the power out of RF that you really want).

It's a good move for next season, too, when Byrd would provide a very affordable option who can be swung between RF, LF and DH.

[CaliforniaChief]

Byrd makes sense for another reason: The INEVITABLE next injury to Lorenzo Cain.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Cubs Trade Jeff Samardzija And Jason Hammel To Best Team In Baseball

Detroit Arrogance?

Verlander: A's made Cubs deal with Tigers in mind

By Jason Beck and Matt Slovin / MLB.com

DETROIT -- The Oakland Athletics left town on Wednesday having been swept out of Comerica Park. The Tigers were busy with the Rays when the A's made their move for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, acquiring the pitchers in a deal with the Cubs.

When Justin Verlander heard about the trade later Friday night, he felt the target on their backs. It wasn't so much about this week, but the last two Octobers.

"I found it very interesting," Verlander said Saturday. "Really, when I saw that trade, I thought that they made that trade for us. No doubt about it in my mind. If they want to win a World Series, they're envisioning that they have to go through us, and even though it's been two fantastic series, it's been heartbreaking for them the last two years."

The Tigers and A's have met in the American League Division Series the last two years, with both series going to a winner-take-all Game 5. Both times, Verlander broke Bay Area hearts with dominant performances -- a complete-game four-hitter with 11 strikeouts in 2012, then eight shutout innings with 10 strikeouts last year. Neither A's counterpart -- Jarrod Parker two years ago, then rookie Sonny Gray last year -- delivered a quality start in return.

Oakland has scored one run on Verlander in 31 postseason innings the last two years. With Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez, Verlander said, they have others capable of doing the same.

Regardless of the matchups, Verlander said, it's the concept.

"When you have a team like ours, somebody's going to go out there and dominate," Verlander said. "And it just happens the last couple years [against Oakland in Game 5], it's been me. And I think they felt like they needed that person. Star power in the playoffs goes a long way. Power pitching in the playoffs goes a long way."

If the regular season ended today, the Tigers and A's would have to advance to the AL Championship Series to meet again. Oakland owns baseball's best record, and would meet the Wild Card winner in a Division Series, while the Tigers would match up with the winner of the AL East, a race the Orioles now lead after the A's beat the Blue Jays on Friday night.

While the A's have won the AL West the last two years despite roster turnover, and reached the postseason seven times since 2000, their lone playoff series win came in '06. They swept the Twins in the Division Series that year, only to lose to the Tigers in the ALCS.

"I think a lot of factors had to do with why they did it," Verlander said later. "Obviously October's the main one, not necessarily us but October in general."

That said, the Tigers have won the AL Central each of the last three seasons, and have reached the postseason four times since 2006. Each time, they've won at least one series, reaching the World Series twice. Each year, their strength has been dominant starting pitching, the kind the A's just added.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Byrd makes sense for another reason: The INEVITABLE next injury to Lorenzo Cain.

Fair point. It also would allow them to aggressively shop Butler right now. His value is at an all-time low, but a team that could use a little more RH pop (like, say, the Mariners), might find a use for Butler.