2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[KevB]

Originally Posted by DaWolf

Agreed. From what I can tell that's one of the big issues with this regime, with Dayton continuing to pull on and refer to how they did it with the Braves, hiring people who worked with the Braves and Cox, etc. Obviously what the Braves did was not replicated here in any way, shape, or form...

Montgomery, Lamb and Duffy didn't turn out to be Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Simple as that. Braves were obviously well run, but if they don't have three HOF'ers at the top of their staff, they don't have the run of success that generates so much respect.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I think what's left out of the "Braves way" equation is that the Braves didn't just rely on young kids from their system. Yes, there were a lot of those.

But the Braves also signed Sid Bream and Terry Pendleton as free agents to help supplement the young position talent. They brought in John Smoltz via a very shrewd (and lucky - was done before Schuerholz got there) trade. And they made good acquisitions/signings as time went on (Fred McGriff... Greg Maddux... etc).

When you really think about the Braves who they drafted I guess you had Justice, Gant, Deion, Glavine, Avery?, then you had Chipper and Javier Lopez come later but a lot of their stars were trades and free agency.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I think what's left out of the "Braves way" equation is that the Braves didn't just rely on young kids from their system. Yes, there were a lot of those.

But the Braves also signed Sid Bream and Terry Pendleton as free agents to help supplement the young position talent. They brought in John Smoltz via a very shrewd (and lucky - was done before Schuerholz got there) trade. And they made good acquisitions/signings as time went on (Fred McGriff... Greg Maddux... etc).

Edit: Never mind. Reading comprehension

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by KevB

Montgomery, Lamb and Duffy didn't turn out to be Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Simple as that. Braves were obviously well run, but if they don't have three HOF'ers at the top of their staff, they don't have the run of success that generates so much respect.

It's more Glavine/Smoltz/Avery, as they signed Maddux as a FA in the middle of their run.

But yes... the Braves had great luck with 3 very young pitchers all hitting to some degree (by the time Avery flamed out, they had acquired more talent to replace him).

They also did a better job developing young hitters... some of that, maybe, you can pin on having more veteran support around them.... but are Terry Pendleton and Sid Bream really better in 1991 than Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are in 2011? (No).

Only real difference there is that the Braves had several proven winners on that 1991 team that turned it all around (Leibrandt, Bream, Pendleton, Juan Berenguer), which is not something the Royals have really had until the past two years.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

This. Say what you will about Whitlock but when he and Poz wrote for the star it was awesome.

...and respected nationally. Hell, the papers with a better tandem were very few and far between, and you wouldn't need even need one hand to count on to name them off if there were.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by DeepSouth

Over a full season of 162 games, win half of the games on the road, that's 40. Win 2/3 of the home games, that's 53-54 depending how you round. That's 93 -94 wins for the season.

When you sum it up that way, it makes the last 29 going on 30 years even more depressing.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by DaWolf

Agreed. From what I can tell that's one of the big issues with this regime, with Dayton continuing to pull on and refer to how they did it with the Braves, hiring people who worked with the Braves and Cox, etc. Obviously what the Braves did was not replicated here in any way, shape, or form...

Good point- if you have to refer back to how things were done, I have to give pause and think that maybe you weren't the visionary helming that leadership and their success- sadly.

Patriot way, Moneyball, Brave's system, etc...

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Three7s

Our time?

We believe (dated)

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I think what's left out of the "Braves way" equation is that the Braves didn't just rely on young kids from their system. Yes, there were a lot of those.

But the Braves also signed Sid Bream and Terry Pendleton as free agents to help supplement the young position talent. They brought in John Smoltz via a very shrewd (and lucky - was done before Schuerholz got there) trade. And they made good acquisitions/signings as time went on (Fred McGriff... Greg Maddux... etc).

It's the TBS factor. Might as well poach Ernie and Barkley for comedic relief if the end result doesn't change.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by KevB

Montgomery, Lamb and Duffy didn't turn out to be Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Simple as that. Braves were obviously well run, but if they don't have three HOF'ers at the top of their staff, they don't have the run of success that generates so much respect.

And how would we afford it if they did?

[Toadkiller]

This made me sadder:

http://gradingonthecurve.com/2014/05...r-league-team/

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Toadkiller

This made me sadder:

http://gradingonthecurve.com/2014/05...r-league-team/

There are definitely areas to be disappointed. I think he's missing a few things there. The biggest is that you can't base a minor leaguer's evaluation entirely on stats. Especially pitchers at developmental levels.

Big disappointments so far:

Zimmer getting shelved long-term again, which we've discussed in this thread a bit. It's not a good sign. If they had kept him on the plan they entered the season with (he starts throwing for real in May), it's no issue.

The other obvious one is Bubba Starling, who also has been discussed to death.

As for the rest of the list... Manaea and Almonte are kind of the same case. Both highly talented guys whose ERAs are not pretty but who are having very successful seasons by all other metrics.

Almonte's ERA is spiked into the mid-4s, but his WHIP, K rate, BB Rate, K:BB all have very minute (less than 1 percent) variations from last year. We don't have ways to measure things like BABIP for minor leaguers, but we can see that hitters are hitting for basically the same average as a year ago against him... he's just had a little worse luck in runs scored.

In-person reports on Almonte have been glowing, and include notes about him making a noted effort to work his breaking pitch in more and rely less on his fastball/change combo. That's something he's going to have to do to be successful at the big-league level, and I'd rather see him doing it now (and having it hit his stats a little bit) than trying to figure it out at AA or AAA when he starts needing it.

Manaea is in the same boat... crazy good peripherals, great in-person evals, ERA that doesn't match. Though he has done a much worse job controlling baserunners than Almonte...

Both of these guys are also still on pitch counts/innings limits, which hurts their overall numbers. If Manaea gets into a two-out jam in the 4th inning of a game and hits his pitch limit (as happened earlier in the year), he's coming out and a middle reliever is taking over for him.

Mondesi was dominating at High-A until he was injured. The back spasms seem to have caused some significant problems for him at the plate (which is to be expected). All other reviews of Mondesi have been glowing - especially from before the injury, when he sounded destined for a top 10 prospect ranking.

Outside of Mondesi, the hitting prospects are less rosy than the pitching side of things. Dozier started slow but is hitting now at High A in a tough pitchers park, so that's nice. Orlando Calixte, who was in my Top 10 but not BAs, currently has an .823 OPS at AA, which is pretty strong from a SS (especially a 22-year-old one). The sample size is small, but he's also posting his best OBP as a minor leaguer.

Those three are really the only ones you can say something really positive about (you could about Samir Duenez, who's starting to hit of late). Bonifacio and Cuthbert have been "meh" at AA. Elier Hernandez and Zane Adams have not hit.

I was hopeful and excited we'd see big things out of Bonifacio at AA now that he's healthy and a year removed from hand surgery. That's a major bummer.

[Sure-Oz]

So apparently gmdm asked George Brett to be hitting coach again. He said **** that

[Sure-Oz]

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb...ing-coach.html

[Mother****erJones]

Big three game series next weekend.