2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[duncan_idaho]

Thoughts on Jason Vargas I just can't kick (and reasons to be optimistic).

This was prompted by people saying fairly often that Vargas is headed for an ERA near 5/in the high 4s, which would be his highest ERA by far since becoming a full time starter in 2010.

So I did some digging. From 2010-13, here are Vargas' ranks in a few key stats:

IP: 34th (190 1/3 per year)
ERA: 53rd (3.97)
WHIP: 43rd (1.27)
K/BB: 63rd (2.32)
BB/9: 38th (2.53)
Opponent OPS: 51st (tied with Santana at .718)
Opponent BABIP: 13th (.280)
Opponent BA: 57th (.257)
Opponent OBP: 40th (.308)

He doesn't strike out many hitters, and because of that, projections systems hate him. But Vargas, when you start looking at some of these things, starts to take shape as a guy who can make a case for being somewhere around the 50th best pitcher in the major leagues, all things considered. You could argue a little higher, you could argue a little lower.

But I just don't see a guy who's all of a sudden going to start posting an ERA in the high 4s and be a problem.

The floor really looks to me like 4.25/1.25/190 IP. And I really do believe that 3.75/1.20/200 IP is a logical target/ceiling for Vargas.

One thing that's slightly interesting ... his K rate ticked up into the mid 6s in 2013, albeit in a small sample size. He did throw his changeup and curveball at higher rates than in previous seasons, which might account for it.

If Vargas could combine that improved K rate (around .75 higher than his career average and nearly 1 higher than his previous 3 years) with his walk-limiting and average-limiting abilities, we could even see him get into 3.50/1.15/200 IP territory.

[tk13]

I was a fan of the Vargas signing. Not sexy at all... but he seems to always chew up innings with an average ERA. With a staff that will include Ventura and maybe Zimmer, we're going to need that.

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by Shogun

Rany isn't blogging after this season? What a bummer. Is there a link to that?

Ummm, in the link that I posted.

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by tk13

I was a fan of the Vargas signing. Not sexy at all... but he seems to always chew up innings with an average ERA. With a staff that will include Ventura and maybe Zimmer, we're going to need that.

Agreed. The big downside that people have is that it was such an early signing before the market was even set. Who cares? Looking back, yeah we probably over payed, But it's not my money. And what people aren't considering, (even myself through most of the offseason) we weren't going to sign Santana back, GMDM was getting that pick. And I don't blame him.

[Discuss Thrower]

...?


http://youtu.be/8qIh_EcRtG4?t=2m32s

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by SPchief

You'd have an instant 40+ readers based off this board. That's not a bad start.

yep!

I'd even help contribute to get you started, if ya set up a pay-pal!

[Archie F. Swin]

I predicted the Royals would win 86 games in 2013. My prediction for 2014 they will average .550 ball each month an finish the regular season with a record of 90 - 72, good for at least 2nd in the AL Central.

[DeepSouth]

Looks like Ervin Santana is not on the Braves opening day roster. He's starting the season in AAA with the hope to be in the Braves rotation by mid April.

[duncan_idaho]

I mentioned Duenez having a strong spring the other day and getting assigned to full-season ball at age 17...

Jason Park from BP included him in his 10 pack of minor leaguers who impressed in spring training today, and was more positive about Duenez's ability to play LF than previously indicated by others.

Would be pretty cool if he can stick in LF. Also sounds like he's a better athlete than some thought in watching him last year.

[DeepSouth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I mentioned Duenez having a strong spring the other day and getting assigned to full-season ball at age 17...

Jason Park from BP included him in his 10 pack of minor leaguers who impressed in spring training today, and was more positive about Duenez's ability to play LF than previously indicated by others.

Would be pretty cool if he can stick in LF. Also sounds like he's a better athlete than some thought in watching him last year.

Duncan, why LF versus 1st? As young as he is, do you not think he could be Hosmer's replacement (Assuming KC can't extend a Boras client) ?

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=642279

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DeepSouth

Duncan, why LF versus 1st? As young as he is, do you not think he could be Hosmer's replacement (Assuming KC can't extend a Boras client) ?

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=642279

It's about versatility. If he has the athleticism/ability to play LF, it gives you more flexibility than if he is pigeon-holed into 1B at this age.

But yes, hopefully he continues to be and show plus hit tools. Power will come as he fills out. They've got 4 more years of Hosmer, barring an extension. Duenez could be in position to take over at this rate:

2014: Low-A (lexington)
2015: High-A (Wilmington)
2016: AA (Northwest Arkansas)
2017: AAA (Omaha)
2018: MLB (at age 21)

Hosmer can be a free agent before the 2018 season. Best-case scenario: Duenez skips 2 levels in one year at some point and is able to debut in 2017, giving them a good enough look to know whether he's the replacement 1B in 2018.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin

I predicted the Royals would win 86 games in 2013. My prediction for 2014 they will average .550 ball each month an finish the regular season with a record of 90 - 72, good for at least 2nd in the AL Central.

I am now officially predicting 89-73, 2nd in the AL Central, and we'll get the 2nd wild card.

[Simplicity]

Anyone find a live stream online?

[duncan_idaho]

I'm going big: My prediction is 92 wins.

They outperformed Vegas by 10 last year (and it was no fluke - if I remember correctly, they were actually about 1 win lower than expected based on run differential). THey do it again.

If they can get to 92 wins, I think there's a good shot that wins the division.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

89 wins here