2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[Archie F. Swin]

Rusty Kuntz seems like a cool cat to play for

http://m.mlb.com/video/v31676139/kun...-training-game

[Mama Hip Rockets]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Here's the link:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...sas-citys-year

Wow.

[BlackHelicopters]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I just have a hard time really believing in this rotation. However, if the offense can be above average and we do well against the lesser division opponents in Cleveland, White Sux and Twins, we could do it. Lots of things have to go right for this rotation to keep us in it. I think low 80's is the likely win total.

I have said all along we need another starter.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop

I have said all along we need another starter.

I think all of us feel that way, especially with the spring Duffy had.

[noa]

Fangraphs has our pitching staff ranked 17th and obviously has concerns about Vargas/Guthrie/Chen. They would think more highly of us if we replaced Chen with Duffy.
Posted via Mobile Device

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If the Royals win 92 games, I'd give them about a 60 percent chance of winning the division outright. Just don't see the Tigers getting there.

I tend to agree with you, but from Olney's standpoint, he was asked about the Tigers declining and he thought they still had enough, even without Iglesias ... said Verlander was looking great, their defense is better, they've got Nathan, etc. He thought Smyly would replace Fister's production. We'll see.

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I just have a hard time really believing in this rotation. However, if the offense can be above average and we do well against the lesser division opponents in Cleveland, White Sux and Twins, we could do it. Lots of things have to go right for this rotation to keep us in it. I think low 80's is the likely win total. :(

That's where I'm at.

[sedated]

Originally Posted by noa

Fangraphs has our pitching staff ranked 17th and obviously has concerns about Vargas/Guthrie/Chen. They would think more highly of us if we replaced Chen with Duffy.
Posted via Mobile Device

I’m assuming that will happen.

It seems like Duffy and Chen are going to combine to be 1 pitcher, because neither can go 7 innings. Have one pitch 4 or 5 and the other 2 or 3.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

The thing that sucks is that our offensive could move forward in a big way this year, and we probably take a step back in the win problem. Especially if there are ANY injuries with our pitching staff (stay healthy James).

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by sedated

I’m assuming that will happen.

It seems like Duffy and Chen are going to combine to be 1 pitcher, because neither can go 7 innings. Have one pitch 4 or 5 and the other 2 or 3.

PLATOON PITCHING MOTHER****ERS!!!!!

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

I tend to agree with you, but from Olney's standpoint, he was asked about the Tigers declining and he thought they still had enough, even without Iglesias ... said Verlander was looking great, their defense is better, they've got Nathan, etc. He thought Smyly would replace Fister's production. We'll see.

I think they still are the favorite and still have enough to win. But I don't think they're a club that should win 100 games again.

We were talking about this on the scout.com board today. Here are my thoughts on the Tigers and their offseason changes:

It's not just about Kinsler for Fielder. It's about Castellanos, Kinsler, SS scrap heap contingent, Smyly as SP, Joba Chamberlin and Joe Nathan, vs. Prince Fielder, Infante, Peralta/Iglesias, Fister, Joquin Benoit and Drew Smyly

We can say with certainty that Kinsler improves Detroit's defense at 2B. He is a very good defender. But from an offensive standpoint, Kinsler had a lower BA, OBP and SLG than OMAR INFANTE last year

So, it's a decent bet Kinsler won't even give Detroit the offense Infante provided a year ago (considering his career performance away from Arlington). Castellanos will NOT give them the offensive production they got from Fielder. The SS mess will be less productive offensively than Peralta and Iglesias (who was unsustainably good a year ago, but still productive). (And not as good defensively)

Smyly is a good prospect, but expecting 4 WAR out of him in his first go as a SP is a pretty high expectation. Filling Fister's production is a tough thing to do. ANd in the pen... the Tigers bullpen might actually be WORSE. Sure, it's more stable in the 9th with Nathan, but Benoit was very good in that role in the second half. It's worse in the 7th and 8th innings than when Smyly and Benoit/Jose Veras were holding down those spots.

Overall, the Tigers offense is most likely going to take a step back. Just too many regression spots, and not enough potential "bump" spots to balance that out. Torii Hunter is unlikely to improve. Miguel Cabrera, same thing. Austin Jackson was down in 2013 from what he'd been in 2012, but he played to career norms. I think he is, basically, what we saw last year.

And then there's the pitching staff. It's possible than Sanchez and Scherzer are just 6 win pitchers now. But is that more likely than each taking a step back after a career year? I'd place my bet on the latter.

I expect Verlander to pop back up to his usual levels this year, so that balances out regression from one of those guys. But probably not if BOTH regress a bit.

Detroit is still the favorite and should be. But that's a team that came back to the pack over the offseason rather than moving further out in front. They are not a slam dunk to run away with things, by any means.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by noa

Fangraphs has our pitching staff ranked 17th and obviously has concerns about Vargas/Guthrie/Chen. They would think more highly of us if we replaced Chen with Duffy.
Posted via Mobile Device

Which will happen by midseason and maybe even in June.

Fangraphs actually has KC 19th. There's all sorts of ridiculousness going on in their pitching staff rankings.

Rankings that stand out as particularly bad:

Red Sox 2nd.

Yankees 4th (above, notably, the Nats, Cardinals and Dodgers, among others).

Rockies 9th (above the Rays)

Giants 14th

I like stats a ton. But stuff like this from Fangraphs is why so many in baseball laugh at stat heads. Those rankings just don't match the eye test.

Just to clarify on what Fangraphs thinks of KC's staff (and specifically the Guthrie/Vargas/Chen grouping):

They've got Vargas posting a 4.52 ERA, which would be his highest in 5 years (and his highest since becoming a full-time starter)

They've got Guthrie at 4.65, which would be HIS highest in 5 years.

And they've got Chen at 4.36, which is probably about right if he pitches 160 innings in the rotation but is still higher than 3 of his past 4 seasons in KC.

None of the trends for those pitchers have changed, really. Strikeout and walk rates are all basically the same and show no signs of spiking. Fangraphs just has a hard time ever recognizing when guys have established they can out-pitch their peripherals. And it tends to project extreme regression for those guys, every year.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I just have a hard time really believing in this rotation. However, if the offense can be above average and we do well against the lesser division opponents in Cleveland, White Sux and Twins, we could do it. Lots of things have to go right for this rotation to keep us in it. I think low 80's is the likely win total.

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

That's where I'm at.

Battered fan syndrome. I see this a lot on this board. This is a safe place to talk about your feelings.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Battered fan syndrome. I see this a lot on this board. This is a safe place to talk about your feelings.

Vegas is battered.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by tk13

I can't post it from my phone, but Jon Heyman picked KC to win the American League. It's on the CBS Sports MLB page. That's a shocker.

uhh... slow down there, Cowboy, even I'm not picking the Royals to win the pennant. I think they have a shot to do it, and I'm calling them the slight AL Central favorite, but winning the ALCS?