Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by A8bil

First Solar is at 14 PE, but that is in a major contraction phase due to solar glut--it will recover, at least that's what Blackrock is betting on.

Waymo is a taxi company that just sells rides. They don't make the cars, they don't sell the tech. Tesla will do both, and will sell/lease the tech to other manufacturers.

Smart robotics is a multi-trillion dollar industry that has yet to be tapped, and no one is close to Tesla in bringing that tech -- both software and hardware -- to market.

Conglomerates re-emerged in the past few decades. In fact, GE recently broke up, repeating the 80s- 90s. Honeywell just suggested it will. It's PE is 24, but those are two mature conglomerates, not early growth like Tesla. Any attempt to compare conglomerates to Tesla is a flawed approach.

It won't take a lot of growth to justify the PE, but yes, its investors are betting on the come. There's little betting on the come with insurers, retail gas, taxi service, etc. which makes your comparisons not relevant and your skepticism not entirely justified....just partially.

IMO the revenue is a hell if a long way from the books. And historically first to market rarely ends up in market leadership after the technology hits mainstream. The market seemed to love assuming putting a tech company sheen on an industry “disruptor” would equate to returns like a tech company. Simple truth is manufacturing can’t scale as cheaply as software.

I’m no hater. But I’m not buying. I’m also not shorting. I’m also not avoiding it in ETFs.

It’s pretty difficult for me to see the path to achieving the returns that will be required to support the valuation.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by myselff77

What did everyone do with their PLTR position today given the sell off? I got spooked and sold half of it at $112 to lock in a decent profit. I may dump the rest if it dips below $100.

Been holding PLTR since it was $22

I sold half yesterday as well

Its in my Vanguard brokerage which doesn't allow trailing stop losses which is kind of a bummer

[Rain Man]

I've missed the boat on PLTR. I've been pondering buying it for two years, but never have.

[Buehler445]

Preface: I don't own the stock. This is me on the outside.

There is a case to be made to hang on to some of it, especially if you have low basis. This seems like an overreaction to some news. Fundamentally the only thing that changed is the government is supposed to cut the budget somewhere.

It is a pretty big red flag that the CEO is selling that much stock, but frankly, that's his right. And frankly, if that's all the dude has, who am I to crush the guy? I have a big chunk of my net worth in my company too, and I can tell you, the risk wears on a guy. I've started pulling more money out and getting some diversification just for some peace of mind. My situation is different than this dude's but I get it. I can think of a lot of reasons why the CEO selling his stock options is not a negative. Especially he still has a bunch of it.

If you liked the stock before, there isn't much that's changed. If you were looking for an offramp, by all means, fire away. If not, I'd sell enough to for sure break even and make enough profit to make yourself comfortable, and ride the rest. If you thought there was upside before, there still is.

/dude that doesn't have skin in the game.

Palantir Falls On CEO Share Sale Plan, Possible DOD Budget Cut
Link

Palantir (PLTR) stock fell Wednesday on news that CEO Alex Karp plans to sell more than $1 billion worth of his shares and that the Pentagon is considering budget cuts over the next five years.

Palantir stock shed 10% to close at 112.06. The stock fell another 4% in extended trading.

Palantir disclosed that Karp's new trading plan provides for a sale of up to 48.9 million shares, which could be worth up to $1.23 billion, according to Barron's. Palantir reported the change in a Tuesday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

In another development, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly wants senior Pentagon leaders and other top military officials to come up with a plan to cut the defense budget over the next five years, according to the Washington Post.

Palantir's stock plunge ended a four-day winning streak. It also underscored the data analytics company's reliance on government and defense spending.

[Buehler445]

Yeah, Karp sold roughly 10% of his holdings. It is implied he doesn't have much else. If I was in his shoes, It would be tough for me NOT to do this.

The other 90% of his stock is still in the game and at risk.

Spoiler!

Alex Karp’s net worth: From broke academic to billionaire Palantir CEO
https://www.thestreet.com/personalit...karp-net-worth

Palantir Technologies rakes in billions of dollars in revenue analyzing data for the U.S. government and its allies, as well as for large corporations. The company has helped track down terrorists, and at the same time, helps companies combat fraudulent transactions.

Palantir’s stock price rose almost 20-fold between late 2022 and early 2025, and that has helped lift the net worth of its founders.

Alex Karp, Palantir’s current CEO and one of its five cofounders, was a broke academic in the early 2000s and is now a billionaire and CEO of Palantir.

Here’s how much he’s worth in 2025 and how he spends his money.

Alex Karp has a net worth of $10.2 billion as of mid-February 2025, according to Forbes.

His wealth largely comes from his shares in Palantir, though, so it changes frequently by massive amounts any time the company’s stock experiences notable volatility. His 4.3% stake in Palantir was valued at $11.7 billion as of mid-February 2025.

Who is Alex Karp?
Alexander C. Karp was born in New York City in 1967. He grew up in Philadelphia, where he attended Central High School, of which notable alumni include the linguist Noam Chomsky.

Despite his dyslexia, Karp graduated with a bachelor’s degree in philosophy from Haverford College in 1989, and a J.D. from Stanford University (where he met fellow entrepreneur Peter Thiel) in 1992.

A fluent German speaker, Karp also earned a Ph.D. in neoclassical social philosophy from Goethe University in Germany in 2002. After his postgraduate studies, Karp founded Palantir Technologies with Thiel and former PayPal software engineers in 2003.

How did Alex Karp start Palantir?
Shortly after graduating from Goethe, Karp worked at the Sigmund Freud Institute but left to return to America to pursue opportunities that would not leave him as a broke academic. Karp said in a 2009 interview with Charlie Rose that he was better at making money than he was at getting paid as a worker, so he helped start businesses with like-minded individuals with “academic proclivities” and were interested in business.

Karp reconnected with Peter Thiel, his Stanford law classmate, and developed a belief that, after 9/11, Silicon Valley should be involved in fighting terrorism and protecting civil liberties. By using data mining strategies similar to those employed at PayPal (which was founded by Thiel and Elon Musk, among others), Karp hoped to develop an “approach [that] would be very effective in this context” (of fighting terrorism).

Karp, Thiel, and a few former PayPal software engineers started Palantir in 2003 — with money from Thiel who made a fortune from his stake sale in PayPal — and $2 million in startup capital from the Central Intelligence Agency’s venture capital arm In-Q-Tel. Palantir expanded from working with the military and foreign governments friendly to the West to commercial operations with large corporations.

Thiel made Karp serve as the face of Palantir by letting him become CEO in 2005, while Thiel stepped back and pursued other opportunities.

As President Trump serves a second term, and the use of artificial intelligence (AI) is on the rise, investors in Palantir view the company as essential in boosting the military’s strength as well as aiding the nation’s intelligence agencies in combating criminal and terror activity.

How did Palantir Technologies get its name?
Karp said that Palantir was named after the seeing stones mentioned in the “Lord of the Rings” trilogy that allowed characters like Sauron and Saruman to communicate with each other and remotely view events in the past and present.

his metaphor proved to be apt, as Palantir’s technologies allow users to see into — and extract actionable insights from — large databases while still protecting certain information in those databases from unauthorized access.

“The basic idea is that the West or Western values will win if we in the West believe what we're doing,” Karp told Rose. “There's no point in having a war on terrorism if civil liberties are being undermined to the extent that we aren't willing to fight that war and this is particularly true in the cyber context.”

How does Alex Karp spend his money?
Karp is an avid cross-country skier and has homes in various mountainous regions around the world. In a 2024 interview with The New York Times, when asked about having 10 houses from Alaska to Vermont and from Norway to New Hampshire, he responded by referring to the homes as “10 cross-country ski huts.” Aside from skiing, Karp spends his time outside of work practicing tai chi and shooting firearms at practice ranges.

Karp has donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to politicians of both the Democratic and Republican Parties, as well as independents, in their run for office. Politicians he has supported include U.S. Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who now serves as the U.S. Secretary of State.

Cofounders Karp and Thiel have been friends for decades, but they are considered to be somewhat opposite of one another on the political spectrum. While Thiel takes a conservative stance, Karp told the Times that he was “progressive.”

[Buehler445]

Woof. Lotsa red today. My lone green holding is Tyson of all things LOL.

[A8bil]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

IMO the revenue is a hell if a long way from the books. And historically first to market rarely ends up in market leadership after the technology hits mainstream. The market seemed to love assuming putting a tech company sheen on an industry “disruptor” would equate to returns like a tech company. Simple truth is manufacturing can’t scale as cheaply as software.

I’m no hater. But I’m not buying. I’m also not shorting. I’m also not avoiding it in ETFs.

It’s pretty difficult for me to see the path to achieving the returns that will be required to support the valuation.

Fair enough...it will be interesting to see whether Tesla, Baidu or Xpeng can bring the tech manufacturing efficiencies to cars so as to lower costs. The Cybertruck, whether you love or hate it, is a test bed for technologies to bring more manufacturing efficiency in car production...giga presses, 48 volt tech, etc. All of these things, if they work, reduce the required parts, which reduces the manpower to assemble those parts, and reduces manufacturing costs. The scary thing is that will those reductions come at the expense of longevity. Disposable cars, even at 75% of current costs, are still a large unaffordable expense for most households.

[Rain Man]

If I was a CEO in a situation where the company has grown a lot, I'd just dollar-cost-average sales every month to diversify. That way people won't read anything into it, and I'd lower my risk.

When I was young and working at a big company, we got a company match on our savings. However, it was all in company stock and we weren't allowed to sell it while we were employed there. That was a nice way for the company to prop up their stock price. I didn't mind it on the upside, but when the company started struggling, the stock tanked and I had no choice but to watch it plummet and then sell low when I got laid off.

[-King-]

Heh pltr went down under 100 and has bounced back to 105. Glad I'm lazy and have fomo so I didn't sell.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by -King-

Heh pltr went down under 100 and has bounced back to 105. Glad I'm lazy and have fomo so I didn't sell.

Not glad anymore . Think it's time to take my 80% gain and run. Now that I'm selling, this is a clear sign to everyone else to buy.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by -King-

Not glad anymore . Think it's time to take my 80% gain and run. Now that I'm selling, this is a clear sign to everyone else to buy.

I see you’ve studied at the Buehler445 school of market timing.

I always told Dad if I sold my grain he should start paying attention because that’s the bottom.

[threebag]

Originally Posted by scho63

My piggybank

I'm up to about tree fiddy

Time to invest in a Olive Garden and a Whore

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

If I was a CEO in a situation where the company has grown a lot, I'd just dollar-cost-average sales every month to diversify. That way people won't read anything into it, and I'd lower my risk.

When I was young and working at a big company, we got a company match on our savings. However, it was all in company stock and we weren't allowed to sell it while we were employed there. That was a nice way for the company to prop up their stock price. I didn't mind it on the upside, but when the company started struggling, the stock tanked and I had no choice but to watch it plummet and then sell low when I got laid off.

That's company stock for you. I once worked for a company that went bankrupt. People had got shares at $45 a pop and they ended up being worth less than nothing. One of my coworkers lost over a million bucks.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

That's company stock for you. I once worked for a company that went bankrupt. People had got shares at $45 a pop and they ended up being worth less than nothing. One of my coworkers lost over a million bucks.

Ouch.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

That's company stock for you. I once worked for a company that went bankrupt. People had got shares at $45 a pop and they ended up being worth less than nothing. One of my coworkers lost over a million bucks.

I still have options at my previous gig that would cost me around $90k to exercise. The current FMV of all of that would be around $70k.

I'm glad I dragged my feet and never did anything with them.