Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[UteChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Eh, it's all just variations on a theme. I run a 4 fund portfolio of index fund ETFs in my taxable account (which intentionally avoid dividends so that you can go for capital gains instead), and it's done about as well.

(US Stocks, International Stocks, US Bonds, and Real Estate, for the record.)

Do you invest in a REIT or what type of real estate? I have been thinking of adding something to my portfolio.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by UteChief

Do you invest in a REIT or what type of real estate? I have been thinking of adding something to my portfolio.

Yeah, it's a REIT (SCHH to be specific). I only do 5-10% on it, but I like having a little exposure there since I otherwise have no interest in investment property.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, it's a REIT (SCHH to be specific). I only do 5-10% on it, but I like having a little exposure there since I otherwise have no interest in investment property.

I stopped contributing to the REITs I have (much less than 10%) when the commercial industry looked like shit. I probably should do some research and maybe step back in at some point.

[Rain Man]

I've got a relatively large holding in HCI, which is a home insurance company. It's done very well for me, but it took a 20% hit the last week or so due to Hurricane Milton. The storm seems like it's not as bad as expected, and HCI is already up 4% today. I bet it gains another 10% soon if we hear more positive storm reports.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I've got a relatively large holding in HCI, which is a home insurance company. It's done very well for me, but it took a 20% hit the last week or so due to Hurricane Milton. The storm seems like it's not as bad as expected, and HCI is already up 4% today. I bet it gains another 10% soon if we hear more positive storm reports.

Okay, it's now up 8 percent on the day. You guys really should subscribe to my newsletter. If you had invested $2,500 when I told you about it this morning, you could be enjoying a lunch with scho right now with the profits.

[UteChief]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Okay, it's now up 8 percent on the day. You guys really should subscribe to my newsletter. If you had invested $2,500 when I told you about it this morning, you could be enjoying a lunch with scho right now with the profits.

Sign me up!

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by UteChief

Sign me up!

It ended the day up 12 percent. If you had invested $1 million when I mentioned it this morning at 4 percent, you would have taken home a cool $80,000.

I really should have dumped all of my free cash into it, because I was pretty convinced of a bounce. I wasn't expecting it in one day, but I figured it would happen. However, I have rules about how much to invest in one stock and I already hold a lot of it so my rules won't let me buy more.

[UteChief]

I mean to your newsletter. I sold off all of my individual stocks outside of company stock and bought VOO and VOOG.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by UteChief

I mean to your newsletter. I sold off all of my individual stocks outside of company stock and bought VOO and VOOG.

I should let you know that the subscription fee to my newsletter is $80,000 per year. But as you can see, it's worth at least that amount.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I should let you know that the subscription fee to my newsletter is $80,000 per year. But as you can see, it's worth at least that amount.

Would it be considered too greedy if I inquired about purchasing multiple subscriptions?

[lewdog]

TSLA got hammered Friday, down 9%.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

Would it be considered too greedy if I inquired about purchasing multiple subscriptions?

With multiple subscriptions, I'll throw in a free football phone.

[Rain Man]

Okay, lesson learned here. I bought a ton of long-term CDs when they were offering rates of 5+ percent. We're talking 5, 10, and even a few 20-year CDs. I've been looking at income projections and for some reason my fixed-income projections are declining, which should not be happening.

I went into my messaging, and the stupid banks are calling my CDs left and right. So I took a lower rate a year or two ago to lock in long-term rates, and now the banks aren't going to honor them. They've giving me my money back since I made a good call.

Screw bank CDs going forward. I'm not going to buy any going forward for more a 3-month or 6-month term.

And yeah, I knew they were callable when I bought them, but I didn't know what the likelihood of that was. I figured it would have to be some sort of cash crunch to do it. But no. The banks baited me into giving them money and now they're screwing me over.

I repeat: screw bank CDs going forward.

I hope at least a few of them will honor their promise.

[Rain Man]

Okay, I don't know if we can have a discussion about this without getting banished to DC, but I think we can be agnostic on the politics and just talk investment implications.

What should we be doing differently after the election? I generally don't pay much attention because the two main parties are pretty effective at blocking each other's agendas and making change slow. But if one party now holds all three elements of the legislative and executive branch, and also holds the Supreme Court, we could be in for some changes.

Tariffs is probably an obvious first step. It'll make imported goods more expensive, so it seems like companies with domestic production capacity might have an uptick in revenues and profits. I suspect they'll also raise prices to just below the tariff pricing, because why would they not? Who are we talking about here? Who stands to make a killing?

Will Tesla thrive? It seems to me like they're probably going to be getting some pretty good subsidies or something.

Oil? Less regulation, more drilling. Does that mean more profit?

I think if any radical economic policy shifts occur, we're at risk of unexpected outcomes, and unexpected outcomes are more often negative than positive. Will the entire economy and stock market slow down? Should we be moving more to international stocks?

I decided to start buying in on a couple of gold mining companies based in Canada, and also a South American utility provider. I've been needing a little more international exposure anyway, and I think these stocks will do fine if the American economy hits turbulence.

What should we be doing?

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Okay, I don't know if we can have a discussion about this without getting banished to DC, but I think we can be agnostic on the politics and just talk investment implications.

What should we be doing differently after the election? I generally don't pay much attention because the two main parties are pretty effective at blocking each other's agendas and making change slow. But if one party now holds all three elements of the legislative and executive branch, and also holds the Supreme Court, we could be in for some changes.

Tariffs is probably an obvious first step. It'll make imported goods more expensive, so it seems like companies with domestic production capacity might have an uptick in revenues and profits. I suspect they'll also raise prices to just below the tariff pricing, because why would they not? Who are we talking about here? Who stands to make a killing?

Will Tesla thrive? It seems to me like they're probably going to be getting some pretty good subsidies or something.

Oil? Less regulation, more drilling. Does that mean more profit?

I think if any radical economic policy shifts occur, we're at risk of unexpected outcomes, and unexpected outcomes are more often negative than positive. Will the entire economy and stock market slow down? Should we be moving more to international stocks?

I decided to start buying in on a couple of gold mining companies based in Canada, and also a South American utility provider. I've been needing a little more international exposure anyway, and I think these stocks will do fine if the American economy hits turbulence.

What should we be doing?

I think the big moves are done.

Tesla skyrocketed, my ADM stock cratered. News is done and now it's back to business as usual.

One guy brought up that if Trump actually does Tariffs, the beneficiaries will be small-medium sized companies with no international exposure.

I'm unwilling to go there, at least at this point, but if you wanted to layer in some positions there I wouldn't hate it, especially because in my case, I've shirked small cap stocks. But I wouldn't be comfortable picking winners, I'd need to find an ETF or something that would filter out some international exposure, but still have a lot of diversification, because if Tariffs hit in earnest, the economic impact will be so damn significant that there isn't any real way to pick small cap winners IMO.