Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Hey Rainman, do you still have carnival stock? I remember you had some positions thinking it would bounce back after the pandemic.

Well it appears they have bounced back in terms of earnings, bookings, etc. The earnings are BETTER than their pre-pandemic numbers, but the stock price is still comparatively shit.

What's your thoughts on it?

Yeah, I've still got a lot of it. I'm stubborn.

I really liked it back in the day. I had both CUK and RCL stock. The CUK did okay, and the RCL was great. Then a year or so before the shutdown, the CUK started tanking until I was eventually down 40 percent on it. The RCL didn't and I was up a lot on it.

At some point I was about to take a cruise on the third big line, NCLH, and if you own stock you can get onboard credit for purchases, so I bought a little bit for that reason. My timing? I bought it in late February of 2020. Blammo.

At some point that CUK was down 80 percent and the NCLH was down 50 percent, and I was at breakeven on the RCL after I'd previously been up 100 percent.

I've held them and even bought a tiny bit more over time, particularly the NCLH since my timing was so bad on the original purchase that I figure it can go nowhere but up.

The CUK has roughly doubled from the low point, but it's still way down and I'm not sure why. I need it to double again just to get close to the low point before the shutdown. Maybe that's room for big profits, or maybe the market doesn't like CUK for some reason. (Admin note: the American stock is CCL and the British stock is CUK. I accidentally bought CUK and just stuck with it.)

RCL? It's fully recovered and then some. I'm back up over 100 percent on it.

The NCLH has climbed a bit but is still way down from the pre-shutdown. Now I'm down probably 35 percent.

So in summary, RCL has historically been a great stock for me. CUK has had some great gains recently but is still way, way down from historic levels. And NCLH has kind of drifted aimlessly with a slow recovery upward. I don't know why RCL is perceived so differently from the other two, but it's been my clear winner over the past decade.

Like you, my reading is that the companies themselves are thriving. But for some reason the market is still cool on CUK and NCLH. Buying opportunity? I can't tell, and I've already got so much tied up in them that I'm not making any big new bets.

[Buehler445]

That's interesting. I didn't check the Royal Caribbean stock. I have no clue why the carnival stock is still depressed.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Hey Rainman, do you still have carnival stock? I remember you had some positions thinking it would bounce back after the pandemic.

Well it appears they have bounced back in terms of earnings, bookings, etc. The earnings are BETTER than their pre-pandemic numbers, but the stock price is still comparatively shit.

What's your thoughts on it?

it's been a while since I looked but carnivals biggest issue used to be debt

like their debt was potentially more than the value of their ships or higher than a certain % of that value.


since Interest rates have gone up , I'd imagine this issue would be looming pretty large but I don't know for certain if that's the main reason the price is low

one other correction, their earnings is no where near pre-pandemic yet. They've been negative earnings since 2020.

I think you mean revenue... but the problem is their debt payments eat up that revenue hence no earnings , or negative earnings actually.

[ghak99]

Hard to tell what it's a sign of, but it's often a sign of something.

[UteChief]

Originally Posted by ghak99

Hard to tell what it's a sign of, but it's often a sign of something.

Rich Dad writer is saying go gold and silver.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by UteChief

Rich Dad writer is saying go gold and silver.

The one that went broke after he wrote the book?

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by UteChief

Rich Dad writer is saying go gold and silver.

Who is that?

I haven't been seeing all the used car salesman with their doom and gloom buy gold and silver commercials lately. Google's AI will probably flood me with them now that I've typed this out.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by LoneWolf

Something earning 1% interest is better than putting it underneath your mattress.

might as well do a bond or cd at that point

[ReynardMuldrake]

Originally Posted by UteChief

Rich Dad writer is saying go gold and silver.

I wouldn't take advice from a guy that brags about being $1B in debt, but that's just me.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Ming the Merciless

might as well do a bond or cd at that point

I'm still gobbling up 5+ % long-term CDs like they're Tootsie Rolls.

[UteChief]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

The one that went broke after he wrote the book?

I have no idea, I just read about a paragraph and moved on.

[UteChief]

Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake

I wouldn't take advice from a guy that brags about being $1B in debt, but that's just me.

I don’t, I only kind of know who he is. My comment was more of a joke. I don’t think one guy can shift a market.

[UteChief]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I'm still gobbling up 5+ % long-term CDs like they're Tootsie Rolls.

What duration are you getting?

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by UteChief

What duration are you getting?

I'm shooting for 5 years. I can still find those pretty consistently through Fidelity. The 10 year ones are down to 4.5 or 4.75, which actually is still good if you're retiring and think inflation is headed to 2.9 again. But10 year terms are hard to find.

I've got some shorter term ones as well that are a little higher, but I'd rather get 5 or 10 year. Lesson learned: don't buy JP Morgan CDs. They'll offer high rates and then will call them on you.

These rates probably aren't good for anyone under 55, but they're great for the 60+ crowd.

[RunKC]

6 months ago I put most of my assets in S&P funds and I think that’s gonna be the long term plan. Listen to Warren Buffett. S&P will always go up and if it doesn’t then everybody is ****ed.

I have FZROX which has no expense ratio. It’s free. It’s performed great.