Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[UteChief]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Today was sure a swing. I took a look this morning and we were up notably, and then I looked at the end of the day and the village was smoking ruins with bodies strewn in the street.

The day certainly started out fun.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by rydogg58

WTF happened?

The Fed governors all spoke in concurrent times from around noon and all put the kibosh on lowering interest rates. Right about the same time they began selling off the market, the Israeli / Iran conflict ratched up big time and the market shit the bed.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by scho63

The Fed governors all spoke in concurrent times from around noon and all put the kibosh on lowering interest rates. Right about the same time they began selling off the market, the Israeli / Iran conflict ratched up big time and the market shit the bed.

Are they shitcanning rate cuts until late summer or are they just shitcanning rate cuts all together?

I better check out the Israel Iran shit. That could get serious.

[rydogg58]

Originally Posted by lewdog

That's a nice looking profit on that AMZN option. Good job.

What I notice about trading options is that I will day trade/scalp options for 10-20% gains when the market is choppy. Sometimes this is a buy and sell that only takes 5-10 minutes. If there's good direction or better setups, I will swing them a few days out. I did a META call on Wednesday near close and sold this morning for a 200% profit. I sat out the rest of today and I am glad I did.

I have a CVX option that I have held for a week that's up 66%, I sold 50% for profit and will hold the rest longer than most with oil pumping.

I found that I get more consistent gains day trading SPY calls about 45 mins after open when the choppiness is usually in full effect. I'll watch it on a 1 minute candle and try to buy a call a couple days out a few dollars OTM when the rsi starts to bottom out. I don't wait for a big gain, 3-10% is good enough for me and I'll sell it a few minutes after buying.

This past week SPY has seemed to start out great, and then shits the bed the last 10 minutes of trading. Tomorrow I'm going to buy some 0dte puts and hold em until the inevitable daily meltdown.

[scho63]

I feel a major correction coming when Iran retaliates against Israel / US.

They are ****ing pissed

[Tundra Scout]

Originally Posted by scho63

I feel a major correction coming when Iran retaliates against Israel / US.

They are ****ing pissed

It’s coming and it could be a doozy in the wrong way

[UteChief]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Maybe UCO / USO is in play. Gotta take advantage

What are those?

[Stewie]

Inflation reignites. CPI up 3.8% in March. We're going in the wrong direction. How does the Fed lower rates in this scenario? They don't unless there's a huge reversal from what's been happening over the past few months.

The Feds narrative makes no sense. The economy is doing great, unemployment is very low and inflation is rising. This is the scenario to RAISE rates.

[Stewie]

Looking at FedWatch it appears they predict there will be no rate cut until September. And that probability is about 40%. To get to the "three rate cuts in 2024" it would take a huge change and then they'd have to cut rates three times in a row at the end of the year. Highly unlikely. The Fed talks all the time and miss so many metrics right in their faces.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by Stewie

Inflation reignites. CPI up 3.8% in March. We're going in the wrong direction. How does the Fed lower rates in this scenario? They don't unless there's a huge reversal from what's been happening over the past few months.

The Feds narrative makes no sense. The economy is doing great, unemployment is very low and inflation is rising. This is the scenario to RAISE rates.

We don't need the algorithms picking up any such sentiment.

[UteChief]

Didn’t the Fed already dismiss three and say two was a possibility?

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by UteChief

Didn’t the Fed already dismiss three and say two was a possibility?

Last I heard there was still 3 on the table. But shit is getting busy and it's possible I missed it.

There is a Schwab podcast I sometimes have on had some schlub on that said it was possible they could put 3 cuts in the last Quarter.



I dunno what that fool was on but I need some.

[lewdog]

Here we go.

TIMBER!!!!

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Here we go.

TIMBER!!!!

Yep, I moved a fair bit out of some other investments into the market.....

Cooool. I wish I'd have DCA'd it over 6 months.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by scho63

I feel a major correction coming when Iran retaliates against Israel / US.

They are ****ing pissed

I made $26,700 in 3 days this week with APPL call options that I sold Thursday and Friday. I would have made another $80,000 if I didn't sell them so damn early. I bought 250 puts in AAPL that expire this Friday and think I may have a good Monday.