Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Here you go, next NVDA And earnings 2/26 . SKYT $9 right now

Interesting. What's your premise?

I'm also debating buying some of Tinyevel's ELOT stock while the price is down. Or maybe not.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Okay, they took my $200,000 back. I'm disappointed, but I understand.

Nigerian Prince?

[Buehler445]

So, there are some indicators that show stocks might be overpriced.

Normally this stuff is uninteresting drivel, but I thought this was interesting. Big investors have to file their prior quarter transactions to the SEC. Normally by the time it's disclosed, the timing isn't right to follow their lead on any buys, but the disclosures showed a bunch of dudes were selling.

Right or wrong it's interesting.

Maybe some of it is a function of of being able to achieve a return on cash (finally), maybe some of it was profit taking and waiting to reinvest, no way to know.

Nonetheless, it's interesting.

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Skywater technology is a growing semiconductor company, was watching a video about them the other day about looking for a company that could be the next NVDA, Amazon, MSFT type .

I bought NVDA early but didn't know it at the time and sold at $53 and was proud of making a big profit. LOL

Your timing was great, as they had a decent drop Friday morning. Bought 150 shares at it's low point.

[Buehler445]

So you all are probably going to hate this, but I feel compelled to make a case for dumping NVDA.

First, the market cap of NVDA is more than the ENTIRE Chinese Stock Exchange.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidi...010315545.html

P/E Ratio
NVDA 66.28
Microsoft 36.86 (also pushed up by the AI)
Google 24.52 (probably the best shot at applicable AI)
Qualcomm 22.02
Texas Instruments 23.05

Some analyst I heard say in order to reach it's lofty valuation, it would have to get ANOTHER paradigm changing technology and dominate it like they did AI. No clue if that's right or not, but that's fairly horrifying.

I've done it with commodities, it's a lot easier to live with yourself if you give up some upside than if you ride it down. It does for me anyway.

If it were me, I'd dump it.

[big nasty kcnut]

Any low end stock i should buy before they get stupid high?

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Are you holding long or taking the swing ??

I think I'm gonna hold on to it

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

So you all are probably going to hate this, but I feel compelled to make a case for dumping NVDA.

First, the market cap of NVDA is more than the ENTIRE Chinese Stock Exchange.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidi...010315545.html

P/E Ratio
NVDA 66.28
Microsoft 36.86 (also pushed up by the AI)
Google 24.52 (probably the best shot at applicable AI)
Qualcomm 22.02
Texas Instruments 23.05

Some analyst I heard say in order to reach it's lofty valuation, it would have to get ANOTHER paradigm changing technology and dominate it like they did AI. No clue if that's right or not, but that's fairly horrifying.

I've done it with commodities, it's a lot easier to live with yourself if you give up some upside than if you ride it down. It does for me anyway.

If it were me, I'd dump it.

Having lived through the dotcom bubble disaster, I'm wary of a stock crashing, and honestly I've never had a stock do as well as NVDA has these last three years, so it's unprecedented for me to consider.

TSLA came close on the upside. I was up 900+ percent on it for a while, and then it lost half its value. However, I didn't have a ton of it initially so I survived the downside and am still very happy.

But NVDA? I'm up over 1,000 percent on it now, and losing half of that would still be a great win, but it would sure hurt. I'm selling off tiny bits, and the nice thing is that I can sell off 10 percent of my stock now and all the rest will be profit.

I'm also scarred by selling all of my Dell stock in the early 1990s. I doubled my money and thought I was a genius, and the stock went up a hundredfold after I sold it. That hurt. So I have to keep a fair amount of NVDA on the chance that it does the same thing, and I think it's as likely to do that as fall 90 percent.

tl;dr. I've got enough profit that I'm selling a tiny bit to get my original money out and ensure that there'll never be a loss, but I'm too scarred by past FOMO to sell a lot of it.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Having lived through the dotcom bubble disaster, I'm wary of a stock crashing, and honestly I've never had a stock do as well as NVDA has these last three years, so it's unprecedented for me to consider.

TSLA came close on the upside. I was up 900+ percent on it for a while, and then it lost half its value. However, I didn't have a ton of it initially so I survived the downside and am still very happy.

But NVDA? I'm up over 1,000 percent on it now, and losing half of that would still be a great win, but it would sure hurt. I'm selling off tiny bits, and the nice thing is that I can sell off 10 percent of my stock now and all the rest will be profit.

I'm also scarred by selling all of my Dell stock in the early 1990s. I doubled my money and thought I was a genius, and the stock went up a hundredfold after I sold it. That hurt. So I have to keep a fair amount of NVDA on the chance that it does the same thing, and I think it's as likely to do that as fall 90 percent.

tl;dr. I've got enough profit that I'm selling a tiny bit to get my original money out and ensure that there'll never be a loss, but I'm too scarred by past FOMO to sell a lot of it.

That's all fair, and I don't have any so I recognize that it's easier for me to say.

I would say that if it has a Dell type run, is that even possible? I heard just today the market cap of NVDA is bigger than the stock market of Germany and the increas in market cap was enough to represent the ENTIRE market cap for GM, Ford and Ferrari.

If it goes up like the Dell stock did then it would just be, what? bigger than every other stock on the planet combined? I don't think I'm going out on a limb saying that move has already happened (see Hog Farmer's story).

FOMO is a real thing, but goddamn, I'd have trouble not booking at least the 10% to me to even.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Having lived through the dotcom bubble disaster, I'm wary of a stock crashing, and honestly I've never had a stock do as well as NVDA has these last three years, so it's unprecedented for me to consider.

TSLA came close on the upside. I was up 900+ percent on it for a while, and then it lost half its value. However, I didn't have a ton of it initially so I survived the downside and am still very happy.

But NVDA? I'm up over 1,000 percent on it now, and losing half of that would still be a great win, but it would sure hurt. I'm selling off tiny bits, and the nice thing is that I can sell off 10 percent of my stock now and all the rest will be profit.

I'm also scarred by selling all of my Dell stock in the early 1990s. I doubled my money and thought I was a genius, and the stock went up a hundredfold after I sold it. That hurt. So I have to keep a fair amount of NVDA on the chance that it does the same thing, and I think it's as likely to do that as fall 90 percent.

tl;dr. I've got enough profit that I'm selling a tiny bit to get my original money out and ensure that there'll never be a loss, but I'm too scarred by past FOMO to sell a lot of it.

What percentage do you normally allocate to individual stock position size? You could sell off some of NVDA to get it down to your normal range if it's taken over a large percentage of your total individual stock percentage.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

That's all fair, and I don't have any so I recognize that it's easier for me to say.

I would say that if it has a Dell type run, is that even possible? I heard just today the market cap of NVDA is bigger than the stock market of Germany and the increas in market cap was enough to represent the ENTIRE market cap for GM, Ford and Ferrari.

If it goes up like the Dell stock did then it would just be, what? bigger than every other stock on the planet combined? I don't think I'm going out on a limb saying that move has already happened (see Hog Farmer's story).

FOMO is a real thing, but goddamn, I'd have trouble not booking at least the 10% to me to even.

Originally Posted by lewdog

What percentage do you normally allocate to individual stock position size? You could sell off some of NVDA to get it down to your normal range if it's taken over a large percentage of your total individual stock percentage.

I've historically had only a mostly hypothetical dollar amount limit on any individual stock holding, and I'm really diversified, so that limit is only about 2 percent of my total investments. I say 'hypothetical' because until the past couple of years I'd never had a stock reach that dollar amount. Now, though, I have five that are above the limit - NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN - because they all shot up so much last year. The last four are not too far above my limit, but NVDA shot up so much that it's now about 4 percent of my total holdings. That's making me nervous, but it's also letting me dress like that guy on the Monopoly money right now.

I'm going to keep selling off tiny amounts of NVDA if it keeps going up, but at the same time it feels like I'm voluntarily pulling my head out of one of those neverending chocolate fountains at Golden Corral. Every time I sell, the stock is 10 percent higher the next time I look. I sold my first defensive share last year at $438 and now it's pushing $800. At some point it's got to slow down, but maybe that won't happen until I'm doing two chicks at the same time. The stock may be high, but at the same time all I'm hearing is that they can't make those chips fast enough to meet the sales that are pouring in. From an investing perspective, it's tough to land a plane like that when I've been wanting a ride on it my whole life.

[myselff77]

Is your NVDA in a Roth or other tax protected account or do you take a pretty big tax hit each time you sell?

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by myselff77

Is your NVDA in a Roth or other tax protected account or do you take a pretty big tax hit each time you sell?

About 80 percent is in an after-tax brokerage. That's what I've been selling because if it keeps growing I want to keep the part that's in the IRA. So I'm paying taxes any time I sell.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

You could buy an inverse 2x leveraged NVDA etf as an insurance policy.

NVDQ

NVDA tanks and NVDQ goes up at a 2X rate.

Currently 6.50

I've never done any type of hedging or options, but that's actually kind of intriguing in this particular case.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

I bought 5 shares just for fun and it caused NVDA to surpass the 2 Trillion Market cap .

LOL. You should have told me and I’d have bought some.