Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

My financial guy pulled money out of stocks and into less risky places at basically the low point at the end of October.... and of course now or even a couple weeks ago it seemed dumb to just move back and forth, especially with all the speculation right now.

I might fire my financial guy.

Ouch, that hurts. The markets turn on a dime, and you never know when the rally's going to hit. And if you miss it after absorbing the downside, it's painful.

My wife hired some paid advisors a few years back, and they did the same thing in 2020. I protested, but honestly it was kind of a muted protest given how bad the market was for a few months there. There was a month or two when I was wondering if the market was going to drop 80 percent before it stopped bleeding. It was her account so I'm not sure when they got her back into the market and how it turned out, but I can't imagine that they timed it perfectly in that weird time period, so I'm sure it ended up costing us some money in the long run.

I guess it made us feel a little better at the time that we weren't going to become paupers, so I'll admit that. But I was still protesting.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Shag

I'm sitting on a good chunk of cash currently, as a result of the VMW to AVGO acquisition. Looking to get that money back in the market, into a relatively safe investment available at Etrade. Suggestions?

How old are you? Are you playing defense or offense?

I've been banging the drum for CDs for a while now. Etrade has a 10-year CD at 5.0 percent and a 5-year CD at 5.3 percent, both with small banks. I've been spreading my money around at a bunch of different banks through the CD tools at the brokerages, so I don't know that I'd put a large amount of money in any of these tiny banks, but I don't think we'll see a 5.3 CD rate again for many years, and it's almost guaranteed to beat inflation.

If you're younger and still accumulating, that might be too conservative, but if you're courting retirement, it's a good safe way to beat inflation.

As far as stocks, I always struggle to recommend stocks, because I worry that I'll recommend a stock that's up when it's too late for other people, or that I'll recommend a stock that's down and it's down for a good reason. I'll look to see what I'm more bullish on, but I really have no expertise at all other than trying to link stocks to trends in society. I really don't do in-depth analysis of stocks other than looking at growth trends.

[BWillie]

How about that? I finally became a big boy this year and hired a financial advisor. So far so good but seems like everyone had a good showing recently.

[Shag]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

How old are you? Are you playing defense or offense?

I've been banging the drum for CDs for a while now. Etrade has a 10-year CD at 5.0 percent and a 5-year CD at 5.3 percent, both with small banks. I've been spreading my money around at a bunch of different banks through the CD tools at the brokerages, so I don't know that I'd put a large amount of money in any of these tiny banks, but I don't think we'll see a 5.3 CD rate again for many years, and it's almost guaranteed to beat inflation.

If you're younger and still accumulating, that might be too conservative, but if you're courting retirement, it's a good safe way to beat inflation.

As far as stocks, I always struggle to recommend stocks, because I worry that I'll recommend a stock that's up when it's too late for other people, or that I'll recommend a stock that's down and it's down for a good reason. I'll look to see what I'm more bullish on, but I really have no expertise at all other than trying to link stocks to trends in society. I really don't do in-depth analysis of stocks other than looking at growth trends.

Thanks! I'm mid/late 40s, so kind of in a weird spot for risk. I've got a fairly large investment portfolio after years of 401k, ESPP, and RSUs, so I've got a nice nest egg going. Ideally, looking to retire as soon as reasonable, but realistically, that's likely at least 10yrs away.

CDs feel a little too conservative on that timeline, but maybe I'm not thinking about it properly. The market tear also makes me worried about a pullback, but I'd think a 10yr horizon should negate that long term. I was thinking maybe an index fund for the native diversification, but so many options on that front.

Then there's the AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and NVDAs of the world - those always feel like good long term holds, but who knows, I'm not a great stock mind.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Ouch, that hurts. The markets turn on a dime, and you never know when the rally's going to hit. And if you miss it after absorbing the downside, it's painful.

My wife hired some paid advisors a few years back, and they did the same thing in 2020. I protested, but honestly it was kind of a muted protest given how bad the market was for a few months there. There was a month or two when I was wondering if the market was going to drop 80 percent before it stopped bleeding. It was her account so I'm not sure when they got her back into the market and how it turned out, but I can't imagine that they timed it perfectly in that weird time period, so I'm sure it ended up costing us some money in the long run.

I guess it made us feel a little better at the time that we weren't going to become paupers, so I'll admit that. But I was still protesting.

For years, my thought was always stay in just for that reason... the spikes can be fast and sharp, and can you really jump back in without losing out on the best part... plus of course all the guesswork and second guessing on when to move out and back in.

I feel like I have the expertise to screw up my longterm outlook all by myself, and I wouldn't even charge myself fees to do so.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Shag

Thanks! I'm mid/late 40s, so kind of in a weird spot for risk. I've got a fairly large investment portfolio after years of 401k, ESPP, and RSUs, so I've got a nice nest egg going. Ideally, looking to retire as soon as reasonable, but realistically, that's likely at least 10yrs away.

CDs feel a little too conservative on that timeline, but maybe I'm not thinking about it properly. The market tear also makes me worried about a pullback, but I'd think a 10yr horizon should negate that long term. I was thinking maybe an index fund for the native diversification, but so many options on that front.

Then there's the AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and NVDAs of the world - those always feel like good long term holds, but who knows, I'm not a great stock mind.

I'm about the same age, different mechanics but a lot of the same risk tolerance.

I'm looking to move some underperforming assets and cash to equities. What I'm looking at is about a 75/25 mix of VOO (S&P Index Fund) and VUG (Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF). ETFs have a much lower load (costs, fees, etc.) and better diversification than I can achieve picking stocks. I keep a little brokerage account to periodically trade some stocks, but that's for entertainment only. I figure it's cheaper than a trip to the casino and maybe less downside, but I'd have to knock out some really low probability home runs to beat the ETFS on a small scale, and on a larger scale, I'd have to manage it MUCH more intensively than I'm good for and I'd have to some real work on risk that I may or may not be smart enough to do.

Presuming you're not going to need the money any time soon, and are looking to use it to fund your retirement.

1. Keep an emergency fund in a taxable brokerage account or high interest savings account (Mine is in Vanguard Settlement Account which is automatically VMFXX @ 5.43% currently). A lot of the personal finance stuff says save 6 months expenses in an emergency fund. I think that's sound and you won't be in real trouble if you follow that. From my perspective, I'm starting to save money for the next car trade. My objective is to not finance the next trade on the wifes car because it's unlikely the rate will be lower than 8% (That's the long terms S&P return), so I need to be a cash operator. Not sure I can get it done, but that's the goal.

tl;dr: Emergency fund in brokerage or high interest savings.

2. Contribute to your 401K up to the match maximum (do this always - match = 100% return).

3. Start a ROTH IRA and contribute up to the maximum (6,500 for you. If you're married start one for the wife too). In the retirement I have it in a target dated fund (VLXVX - rebalances automatically as I age and becomes more conservative). I haven't done any math to determine it's return vs VOO/VUG, but I'd feel good about either option here.

4. Do some looking and see if you're comfortable with the investments. What you need to look for is long term performance and load (fees, cost, commission).

If you're comfortable with them, max out your 401K. If you aren't start a Traditional 401K and one for the wife if applicable and max them out. Traditional IRAs carry the same tax benefits as a traditional 401K, it's just self directed. If you max out your 401K, it's usually easiest to increase your contributions and use your cash savings for the shortfall from your wages.

The cost efficiency of tax sheltered (retirement) accounts for retirement savings is difficult to match. Take as much advantage of tax shelters as you can. If you don't know the tax implications of Tradtional/ROTH IRA/401K, it's posted a million times in here. Even then, just ask, I don't mind rolling through it again.

5. After that, stick it in a taxed brokerage account and do what you're comfortable with. I'm looking at the VOO/VUG split above.

That's things from my perspective, I'm certainly not qualified to answer, and there are a lot of different viable strategies, but that's what makes the most sense to me.

[ChiefaRoo]

SPR. Buy it.

[Shag]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I'm about the same age, different mechanics but a lot of the same risk tolerance.

I'm looking to move some underperforming assets and cash to equities. What I'm looking at is about a 75/25 mix of VOO (S&P Index Fund) and VUG (Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF). ETFs have a much lower load (costs, fees, etc.) and better diversification than I can achieve picking stocks. I keep a little brokerage account to periodically trade some stocks, but that's for entertainment only. I figure it's cheaper than a trip to the casino and maybe less downside, but I'd have to knock out some really low probability home runs to beat the ETFS on a small scale, and on a larger scale, I'd have to manage it MUCH more intensively than I'm good for and I'd have to some real work on risk that I may or may not be smart enough to do.

Presuming you're not going to need the money any time soon, and are looking to use it to fund your retirement.

1. Keep an emergency fund in a taxable brokerage account or high interest savings account (Mine is in Vanguard Settlement Account which is automatically VMFXX @ 5.43% currently). A lot of the personal finance stuff says save 6 months expenses in an emergency fund. I think that's sound and you won't be in real trouble if you follow that. From my perspective, I'm starting to save money for the next car trade. My objective is to not finance the next trade on the wifes car because it's unlikely the rate will be lower than 8% (That's the long terms S&P return), so I need to be a cash operator. Not sure I can get it done, but that's the goal.

tl;dr: Emergency fund in brokerage or high interest savings.

2. Contribute to your 401K up to the match maximum (do this always - match = 100% return).

3. Start a ROTH IRA and contribute up to the maximum (6,500 for you. If you're married start one for the wife too). In the retirement I have it in a target dated fund (VLXVX - rebalances automatically as I age and becomes more conservative). I haven't done any math to determine it's return vs VOO/VUG, but I'd feel good about either option here.

4. Do some looking and see if you're comfortable with the investments. What you need to look for is long term performance and load (fees, cost, commission).

If you're comfortable with them, max out your 401K. If you aren't start a Traditional 401K and one for the wife if applicable and max them out. Traditional IRAs carry the same tax benefits as a traditional 401K, it's just self directed. If you max out your 401K, it's usually easiest to increase your contributions and use your cash savings for the shortfall from your wages.

The cost efficiency of tax sheltered (retirement) accounts for retirement savings is difficult to match. Take as much advantage of tax shelters as you can. If you don't know the tax implications of Tradtional/ROTH IRA/401K, it's posted a million times in here. Even then, just ask, I don't mind rolling through it again.

5. After that, stick it in a taxed brokerage account and do what you're comfortable with. I'm looking at the VOO/VUG split above.

That's things from my perspective, I'm certainly not qualified to answer, and there are a lot of different viable strategies, but that's what makes the most sense to me.

This is awesome, thanks! I'm single, so just trying to get myself to retirement, find a sugar mama, or both. Or buy a place in Tahoe, whichever comes first.

I max out my 401k every year, but that does bring up another option I've been considering - mega backdoor roth IRA. This is an option through my employer, and seems like an awesome loophole for tax-free growth to retirement. I think the max is like 66k/yr (including traditional 401k), and trying to figure out if it makes sense when I'm at my highest tax burden. Anyone doing this?

The VOO/VUG thing is kind of what I had in mind. I threw some money into VTI a couple years ago, which was supposed to be a nice growth ETF, but it's been entirely flat. I'll look into those two a bit.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Shag

This is awesome, thanks! I'm single, so just trying to get myself to retirement, find a sugar mama, or both. Or buy a place in Tahoe, whichever comes first.

I max out my 401k every year, but that does bring up another option I've been considering - mega backdoor roth IRA. This is an option through my employer, and seems like an awesome loophole for tax-free growth to retirement. I think the max is like 66k/yr (including traditional 401k), and trying to figure out if it makes sense when I'm at my highest tax burden. Anyone doing this?

The VOO/VUG thing is kind of what I had in mind. I threw some money into VTI a couple years ago, which was supposed to be a nice growth ETF, but it's been entirely flat. I'll look into those two a bit.

Congrats on maxing out your 401K. That's ****ing awesome. Seriously.

If your company is offering a backdoor Roth, I'd probably do it. I haven't done one, but if a qualified plan is offering it, I'd be down. My comment about making sure you like your investments in your plan still stands. Seems like companies have gotten more progressive recently, but I don't know, I'm kind of out in the cold these days. If you're comfortable with the funds, I'd probably do it.

That being said, I'm like 1,000% more cash conscious than I was a couple years ago. Now that you can get 5+ for holding cash and borrowing money (probably) won't outperform the market, I'm holding a lot more cash than I have in years past. When I could get 2% money I didn't have a problem financing a car for instance. Now, if it's going to cost 8%, I'm not feeling it. So I'm keeping cash back for those kinds of purchases, where I did less before. 1. I'm incentivized to do so. (Cash is unlikely to outperform inflation, but 5% is much closer than 0%, especially when historic return of the S&P is 8% cash is much more attractive), 2. The cost of a little liquidity is substantially more expensive.

Accordingly, if you don't have a good bit of cash that's liquid, I'd leave some out, just for in case shit money. Once it goes into the tax shelter, it doesn't come back out.

VTI is a total market fund, so it has every stock on the market. I've considered it because it is as diversified as you get, but it has all the losers too. VOO (S&P) just has the biggest 500 companies, so there are less likely to be big losers (but it's not impossible, see GE, Philip Morris, etc).

Again, JMO. I'm certainly open to being a dumbass.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Congrats on maxing out your 401K. That's ****ing awesome. Seriously.

If your company is offering a backdoor Roth, I'd probably do it. I haven't done one, but if a qualified plan is offering it, I'd be down. My comment about making sure you like your investments in your plan still stands. Seems like companies have gotten more progressive recently, but I don't know, I'm kind of out in the cold these days. If you're comfortable with the funds, I'd probably do it.

That being said, I'm like 1,000% more cash conscious than I was a couple years ago. Now that you can get 5+ for holding cash and borrowing money (probably) won't outperform the market, I'm holding a lot more cash than I have in years past. When I could get 2% money I didn't have a problem financing a car for instance. Now, if it's going to cost 8%, I'm not feeling it. So I'm keeping cash back for those kinds of purchases, where I did less before. 1. I'm incentivized to do so. (Cash is unlikely to outperform inflation, but 5% is much closer than 0%, especially when historic return of the S&P is 8% cash is much more attractive), 2. The cost of a little liquidity is substantially more expensive.

Accordingly, if you don't have a good bit of cash that's liquid, I'd leave some out, just for in case shit money. Once it goes into the tax shelter, it doesn't come back out.

VTI is a total market fund, so it has every stock on the market. I've considered it because it is as diversified as you get, but it has all the losers too. VOO (S&P) just has the biggest 500 companies, so there are less likely to be big losers (but it's not impossible, see GE, Philip Morris, etc).

Again, JMO. I'm certainly open to being a dumbass.

I want you to stop putting yourself down in this thread. You have good financial sense and I want you to start owning it like the alpha that you are.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Shag

This is awesome, thanks! I'm single, so just trying to get myself to retirement, find a sugar mama, or both. Or buy a place in Tahoe, whichever comes first.

I max out my 401k every year, but that does bring up another option I've been considering - mega backdoor roth IRA. This is an option through my employer, and seems like an awesome loophole for tax-free growth to retirement. I think the max is like 66k/yr (including traditional 401k), and trying to figure out if it makes sense when I'm at my highest tax burden. Anyone doing this?

The VOO/VUG thing is kind of what I had in mind. I threw some money into VTI a couple years ago, which was supposed to be a nice growth ETF, but it's been entirely flat. I'll look into those two a bit.

If you are within 10 years of retirement, I don't think the backdoor Roth will make a lot of sense with the tax burden it creates. If you are younger and a ways from retirement, absolutely convert it now.

[Rain Man]

I'm not doing a backdoor Roth, but I'm planning to do some Roth conversions, and I discovered something weird.

I'm 60, and working part-time now. My wife has also been doing some part-time stuff. When you add in dividends and some other income, our marginal tax rate is not low enough to warrant doing conversions this year.

In another year or so, my income and tax bracket will tank as my wife and I completely stop working. It'll stay that way until I'm 69. At that point, my wife will be getting Social Security and our Required Minimum Distributions will kick in. Then my Social Security will kick in the following year. So our marginal tax rate will jump up to about the same level that it is now.

I've always had the impression that my tax bracket would decline in retirement, but it'll only decline for about 8 years. So I have to do a lot of tax maneuvering during those eight years because it's my best shot.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Shag

Thanks! I'm mid/late 40s, so kind of in a weird spot for risk. I've got a fairly large investment portfolio after years of 401k, ESPP, and RSUs, so I've got a nice nest egg going. Ideally, looking to retire as soon as reasonable, but realistically, that's likely at least 10yrs away.

CDs feel a little too conservative on that timeline, but maybe I'm not thinking about it properly. The market tear also makes me worried about a pullback, but I'd think a 10yr horizon should negate that long term. I was thinking maybe an index fund for the native diversification, but so many options on that front.

Then there's the AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and NVDAs of the world - those always feel like good long term holds, but who knows, I'm not a great stock mind.

Yeah, I would agree that you're a bit too young for the CD strategy. Stocks are your friend.

I've become pretty diversified, and for the most part the "Magnificent Seven" has driven a lot of my returns. I'm doing okay on other stocks, but if I hadn't been invested in the Magnificent Seven I'd be far to the lesser in my balances. At some point they have to slow down and the non-tech stocks should have a run, but it seems like mixing the two is a good tradeoff.

I've got probably 20 to 25 percent of my money in the Magnificent Seven, which I think is underweighted compared to the major indices. They've done great, but it's kind of scary to me to have too much in a few stocks so I'm slightly whittling them down now.

[EPodolak]

Originally Posted by Shag

This is awesome, thanks! I'm single, so just trying to get myself to retirement, find a sugar mama, or both. Or buy a place in Tahoe, whichever comes first.

I max out my 401k every year, but that does bring up another option I've been considering - mega backdoor roth IRA. This is an option through my employer, and seems like an awesome loophole for tax-free growth to retirement. I think the max is like 66k/yr (including traditional 401k), and trying to figure out if it makes sense when I'm at my highest tax burden. Anyone doing this?

The VOO/VUG thing is kind of what I had in mind. I threw some money into VTI a couple years ago, which was supposed to be a nice growth ETF, but it's been entirely flat. I'll look into those two a bit.

There are quite a few good Vanguard ETF options. VTI is the one I'm invested in. Remember if you've only been in it a couple of years your results will consist of one good investing year and one bad one. The market for just about every leading ETF will look flat for that short window. Both VTI and VOO have returned 14-15% average the past five years. Can't really go too far wrong with either.

[Shag]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Congrats on maxing out your 401K. That's ****ing awesome. Seriously.

If your company is offering a backdoor Roth, I'd probably do it. I haven't done one, but if a qualified plan is offering it, I'd be down. My comment about making sure you like your investments in your plan still stands. Seems like companies have gotten more progressive recently, but I don't know, I'm kind of out in the cold these days. If you're comfortable with the funds, I'd probably do it.

That being said, I'm like 1,000% more cash conscious than I was a couple years ago. Now that you can get 5+ for holding cash and borrowing money (probably) won't outperform the market, I'm holding a lot more cash than I have in years past. When I could get 2% money I didn't have a problem financing a car for instance. Now, if it's going to cost 8%, I'm not feeling it. So I'm keeping cash back for those kinds of purchases, where I did less before. 1. I'm incentivized to do so. (Cash is unlikely to outperform inflation, but 5% is much closer than 0%, especially when historic return of the S&P is 8% cash is much more attractive), 2. The cost of a little liquidity is substantially more expensive.

Accordingly, if you don't have a good bit of cash that's liquid, I'd leave some out, just for in case shit money. Once it goes into the tax shelter, it doesn't come back out.

VTI is a total market fund, so it has every stock on the market. I've considered it because it is as diversified as you get, but it has all the losers too. VOO (S&P) just has the biggest 500 companies, so there are less likely to be big losers (but it's not impossible, see GE, Philip Morris, etc).

Again, JMO. I'm certainly open to being a dumbass.

I was raised pretty conservative financially, so stocking away for retirement has always been on my mind, been contributing to 401k since I was 21. Now that I'm getting closer, trying to figure out how to speed this thing up, lol. I'm pretty cash flush right now, so trying to fix that, but will definitely keep some liquid cash in a HYSA. Appreciate all the input!

Originally Posted by lewdog

If you are within 10 years of retirement, I don't think the backdoor Roth will make a lot of sense with the tax burden it creates. If you are younger and a ways from retirement, absolutely convert it now.

What am I missing on the tax burden of a MBDR? My understanding is that the money goes in post-tax, but the growth is untaxed at cashout. So, instead of putting money into the market today and being taxed on growth, that same money could go into a MBDR and come out tax-free. Am I wrong there?