*****The Rashee Rice Thread*****

[Dante84]

More to come!

Mahomes knew Rashee Rice was his guy after throwing with him in Dallas.@AdamLefkoe with the scoop �� pic.twitter.com/X8ZAab22kM

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) April 29, 2023

Rashee Rice | WR | SMU

One of the best WR prospects at the catch point and winning leverage mid-route. He consistently sets up defenders to put them on his back, locates the ball, and attacks it at the highest point.

Skill set is wild for a 6' 200lb WR. pic.twitter.com/ClxW4SJvi5

— Matt Lane (@Matty_KCSN) February 16, 2023

Rashee Rice was drafted with pick 55 of round 2 in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 9.53 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 145 out of 3062 WR from 1987 to 2023. https://t.co/lwD9tvVPvv pic.twitter.com/YjucxErSE1

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 29, 2023

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Seen some chatter re: the #Chiefs acquiring a WR at the trade deadline — but perhaps an answer is on their own team. Last week, we noted Trent McDuffie ranked 1 (@pff) among all NFL cornerbacks.

Who's tied for No. 14 among all NFL receivers?

Rashee Rice (T- Mike Evans) - 79.0

— Pete Sweeney (@pgsween) October 3, 2023

They need to take snaps from guys that just aren't getting it done and give them to Rice. I really think if he was given at least the 3rd most snaps amongst the WRs that he'd get damn close or even surpass 1000 yds. I think Mahomes clearly trusts him more than the other WRs too, even with the drop issues, because he has more targets than everyone of them and plays less than most of them.

Reid needs to bite the bullet and let him play more.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

I'd love to see that data/stat.

I'm almost positive it was CDCox somewhere. Wish I had any recollection as to when/where it was. I think it was in August when we were talking about Rice. Hell it may be in this thread somewhere.

It was pretty interesting. It really does suggest there's a thresshold level of ability and if these WRs don't hit it, they don't stick around very long and thus don't impact the large numbers significantly.

And it also gets back to how narrow the lines are drawn between the JAGs and the superstars. The differences between Skyy Moore and Antonio Brown may not be easy to see on paper, but boy howdy do they scream loudly on a football field.

In closing - RAS is reeruned.

[DJ's left nut]

Found 'em....

Originally Posted by cdcox

I did a detailed analysis of WR drops today. From year to year, the league-wide drop rate is 6.5%. In a given season, a simple model where every receiver has a 6.5% chance of dropping a given pass, accurately reproduces the league wide drop frequency distribution. The correlation between drop rates in 2022 and 2023 for a given receiver was only 0.2.

Stripping through all the math, no receiver in the NFL has better hands than another. The simplest representation is that all NFL receivers have a 6.5% chance of dropping any given pass.

Originally Posted by cdcox

I calculated the drop rate of every WR by:

Drop rate = drops/(drops+receptions)

The denominator of that represents catchable balls.

I then plotted the drop rate in 2021 vs the drop rate in 2022 of every receiver who caught at least 50 passes in both years. If some players had better hands than others, you'd expect them to have similar drop rates in both years and all the points to be scattered on a 45 degree line. Instead you get a scatter plot with a correlation coefficient of only 0.2. There is another analysis I did, but it is a little more complex.

I'll leave it to him to really expound on his data if he wants, but most any prolific receiver over large enough sample sizes is going to drop 6.5% of the passes he gets thrown, plus or minus a little in the margins.

[Dunerdr]

Originally Posted by New World Order

Hopefully Cinci keeps losing and we can swing a trade for a guy like Tyler Boyd.

Even with the pending cap rape theyre facing down, I doubt they would be interested.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It's really my major concern with him. I don't see many of these as concentration drops at this point - they're looking like technique drops.

Now maybe, as happens with a goalie having a bad game, he's "fighting the puck" and his hands are just a little too tight as the ball is coming in. But he's getting his hands up and the ball's just bouncing off them. That's a technique problem in that he's just not absorbing the ball with his hands.

Now in complete fairness - I've never caught a 50 mph football and I'm sure that's ****ing hard. There's probably a lot more to it that 'put the point in the window' as I was always taught. But man, that always seems to fix any issues because when you do that, your hands really don't have a choice but to wrap around the ball.

It's odd.

Then again, I take some comfort in the stat that I believe CD put up around here somewhere - drop rates almost always stabilize for 95% of receivers in the league. Some are truly remarkable, some are truly bad. But 95% of receivers have drop rates within the margin of error of each other. And over large enough sample sizes, pretty much all of them regress/progress to the mean.

I'm fairly confident that Rice will do the same. He's just fighting the ball a bit at the moment.

So I played Basketball as a kid, not football.

My serious question:

Why do so many NFL players seem to have problems with uncontested drops that stabilize after a couple of years.

Why don't they figure this out in college?

Is the ball being thrown harder? Or are there a lot of drops in college. I don't watch much college. Or even if the catch is uncontested is something else going on? Like it's harder to get open so less attention to tracking the ball?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Look at this year's 1st round WRs.

Addison: still WR3 behind Osborn.

JSN: WR3 on a team that runs a lot of 12 personnel.

Johnston: was WR4 until Mike Williams went down. Still behind Joshua Palmer.

The only 1st round WR that's getting starter snaps is Flowers. That's it.

Rice is probably getting targeted more than any of those guys, except maybe Addison (who just put up a dud this week).

It's a mix bag.

Flowers is getting a ton of snaps. He's basically the second option in the pass game behind Andrews.

JSN is being worked in pretty slowly but he missed part of camp with injury and he has 2 high level WRs in front of him and a HC that wants to run the ball, with 2 highly drafted RBs.

QJ so far is an absolute dud, even without Williams his snap count isn't great and Palmer is getting a lot more targets.

Addison you can see the route running and explosion and the highlight plays he's making. Osbourne is ahead of him for now..I doubt that lasts much longer.

But as we move down, Tank Dell is getting starter snaps and it seems he and Nico Collins are taking turns on who will have the big game each week.

Mingo is getting starter snaps but he's been a dud...not sure how much is him and how much is the Carolina offense being a turd.

Jayden Reed is seeing a pretty solid role in GB as the slot guy and he has a good number of snaps and targets.

Marvin Mims is basically doing exactly what Rice is doing in that he's being slowly worked into the system, he has hit a few HR plays in that process.

Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman seem to be MIA in being in bad offenses.

Josh Downs, basically echo the Reed comment, he's the starting slot and has a solid role.

Michael Wilson now this one is interesting, he's a starter, albeit on a pretty bad team but he has had solid production so far.

That's the first 3 rounds after that the guys are doing about what you'd expect of Day 3 WRs, some snaps here and there, specials etc. Unless you're Puka Nacua.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Do you think KJ Osborn is better than Jordan Addison?

Do you think Joshua Palmer is better than Quentin Johnston?

Do you think whatever WR after Thielen that was getting more snaps than Justin Jefferson early in his rookie year was better than him?

It's pretty ****ing obvious that the Chiefs know Rice is more talented, and it's the mental part of the game that is their reasoning, but let's pretend differently.

Of that question, the Johnston one is the most concerning to me. He was drafted to replace Mike Williams and when they had Allen, Palmer and Johnston out there Herbert basically doesn't throw it to QJ.

Is that a trust thing or does Johnston suck at getting open?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by RunKC

The Rams WR is terrible right now. It's Van Jefferson and a bunch of shit bc Cupp is injured.

Tutu Atwell is like 5'9" 175 lbs soaking wet so of course they're force feeding Puka.

The Rams WR room is so bad right now that they signed Demarcus Robinson. This isn't hard dude. Rice is clearly getting more snaps bc Toney is injured and on a pitch count.

Actually...Nacua is good, TuTu Atwell has a role and Kupp is a top 5 WR....that is not a bad room, Van Jefferson basically shit his pants when given a chance though.

[O.city]

Almost like most rookie WR's, especially ones that aren't Jamar Chase are gonna come into the league and have to take some time to get up to speed no?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by O.city

Almost like most rookie WR's, especially ones that aren't Jamar Chase are gonna come into the league and have to take some time to get up to speed no?

It's more common for someone to come in and be able to play right away today than it was a decade ago.

This wasn't a great WR draft but if you go back the last several years you'll find many rookie WR's that were productive right away.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Mecca

It's a mix bag.

Flowers is getting a ton of snaps. He's basically the second option in the pass game behind Andrews.

JSN is being worked in pretty slowly but he missed part of camp with injury and he has 2 high level WRs in front of him and a HC that wants to run the ball, with 2 highly drafted RBs.

QJ so far is an absolute dud, even without Williams his snap count isn't great and Palmer is getting a lot more targets.

Addison you can see the route running and explosion and the highlight plays he's making. Osbourne is ahead of him for now..I doubt that lasts much longer.

But as we move down, Tank Dell is getting starter snaps and it seems he and Nico Collins are taking turns on who will have the big game each week.

Mingo is getting starter snaps but he's been a dud...not sure how much is him and how much is the Carolina offense being a turd.

Jayden Reed is seeing a pretty solid role in GB as the slot guy and he has a good number of snaps and targets.

Marvin Mims is basically doing exactly what Rice is doing in that he's being slowly worked into the system, he has hit a few HR plays in that process.

Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman seem to be MIA in being in bad offenses.

Josh Downs, basically echo the Reed comment, he's the starting slot and has a solid role.

Michael Wilson now this one is interesting, he's a starter, albeit on a pretty bad team but he has had solid production so far.

That's the first 3 rounds after that the guys are doing about what you'd expect of Day 3 WRs, some snaps here and there, specials etc. Unless you're Puka Nacua.

It's crazy how good Puka has been.

[Megatron96]

Not to burst anyone’s bubble, bland I like what we’re seeing from Rice in his limited snaps so far, but he’s struggling against man. Went 0-fer vs. man coverage last night.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

It's crazy how good Puka has been.

It's because of him though, apparently Stafford and Kupp do this thing where they have breakfast together and go over film/strategy etc...Nacua asked to join them basically as soon as he got there.

Stuff like that really helps a dude become a top player.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Honestly, it would be really cool if someone did an All22 breakdown of our receivers. I'm not asking anyone here to do it, but if one of the podcast, talking heads, or Keysor did it, that would be awesome.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Actually...Nacua is good, TuTu Atwell has a role and Kupp is a top 5 WR....that is not a bad room, Van Jefferson basically shit his pants when given a chance though.

They're literally force feeding him. Guy has 52 targets. He's on pace to shatter the record for most targets in a season