An analysis of franchise momentum: The Chiefs' Dow Jones Average.

[Rain Man]

Many of us speak of the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s and warn you young bucks that it could be worse.

Well, it's pretty bad, and I started wondering just where we stand relative to the Dark Ages. So I developed an algorithm.

Here's how it works. Starting with Day 1 of the franchise, I looked at every regular and post-season game in our history. Each week I did the following:

A win is worth 1 point and a loss is worth -1 point.
I then add it to 99 percent of the score of the previous week.

In this way, it creates a long tail showing the momentum of the franchise, because a win or loss shows up the next week at 99%, the following week at 99% of that, and so on. So it more or less traces a path of the long-term goodwill or badwill built up by the franchise over time as every single game in history continues to ripple through the Chiefs' space-time continuum.

I made a couple of adjustments, too. I made a playoff game worth 3 points for a win and -3 for a loss, and I also added or subtracted 1 point at the end of each regular season depending on whether or not we made the playoffs. These points get tossed in with the rest of the scores.

The Chiefs Dow Jones can thus be positive or negative, with a positive number indicating more good times than bad, and negative representing, of course, times like now where we are killing our pack animals for food and the dead are carted away in wheelbarrows.

What I found is shown in the accompanying graph. The numbers don't really mean anything but are more of an abstract measure. Some key elements of the timeline include:

1. After some early positive and negative fluctuations, the Chiefs found themselves with a positive Dow of 0.08 in Week 2 of the 1962 season, after a 26-16 win over the Raiders to go 2-0. The Dow would remain positive for the next 15 years after that win. Go, Lenny!

2. With significant assistance from the AFL championship win in 1962, the Chiefs Dow Jones passed +10.0 for the first time in Week 1 of the 1963 season as the Chiefs blasted the Broncos 59-7. However, by Week 5 the Chiefs were 2-2-1, having just lost to the Buffalo Bills 35-26, and they wouldn't see the 10.0 point mark again until a 32-24 win over the Jets in Week 12 of the 1966 season, on their way to the loss in Super Bowl I. So the 1962 championship more or less created the little spike you see in the early days.

3. The Chiefs' star rose rapidly after that, with with the Dow surpassing +20 on Week 12 of the 1968 season. A 24-10 win over the Houston Oilers put the Chiefs at 10-2, and they went on to a 12-2 record but a humiliating playoff loss.

4. 1969 was of course a banner season. After ending 1968 with an index of 19.49, the Chiefs blew through the season with an 11-3 record and three postseason wins, including Super Bowl IV. We ended the season at a then-record Dow of +33.48.

5. We actually beat the Dow record briefly in 1970, though as you can see from the graph, we were topping out and struggling to stay at that level. At the end of Week 12 of the 1970 season the Dow stood at 33.61. We were 7-3-2 at that point, having just beaten the pushover Denver Broncos 16-0 and with the Super Bowl win still fresh. However, losses to Oakland and San Diego the following two weeks kept us out of the playoffs.

6. The team was still strong, though. I'm girding myself for neg rep from milkman, but the high water for the Kansas City Chiefs franchise actually occurred not upon the Super Bowl win, but rather at the end of Week 14 in 1971, as we prepared for a playoff game. The Dow at this point was at 33.63 and the Chiefs were a powerful team of winning veterans. We were 10-3-1 and had just beaten the Buffalo Bills and their young running back O.J. Simpson by a score of 22-9. While we'd missed the playoffs the previous year, we'd made it the two years before that and of course still had the Super Bowl in recent memory.

Of course, we would have our beating hearts ripped out and eaten the following week on Christmas Day, starting a horrific multi-decade decline that is the curse of Garo Yepremian.

7. From that high point of 33.63, we began a terrible, terrible decline, both long and rapid. A 23-16 loss to the Bengals in Week 5 of 1972 dropped us below 30 for good, and a 14-7 loss to the Chargers in Week 9 of 1974 dropped us below 20 points for the first time since Week 3 of the 1969 season. A 28-20 loss to Oakland to end the 1975 season dropped the index below 10.0.

8. In Week 4 of 1977 the Dow actually fell below zero, meaning that the franchise's cumulative memory was now negative. On that day, the Chiefs fell to 0-4 with, ironically, a 23-7 loss to the Broncos.

9. The fall did not stop there. In Week 6 of 1978 we fell to an index below -10 with a loss to the Buccaneers, and the low point of that era occurred with a loss to San Diego in Week 4 of 1980, when our index fell to -18.64.

10. Marv Levy stabilized the franchise a bit, temporarily pulling the index above -10.0, and then Mackovic came in. He didn't do quite as well as Marv as the Chiefs started sliding again, but his playoff spot in 1986 got the index to -10.28 before the playoff loss.

11. Mackovic was fired, and Gansz came in and started digging. An ugly loss to Seattle in Week 2 of 1988 took the index below -20.0 for the first time ever. By the time he left, the index was at a then-record -23.35 as 1988 drew to a close.

12. In 1989 a holy trinity came to town: Carl Peterson, Marty Schottenheimer, and Derrick Thomas. It took a few games to catch fire, though, and the low point of the Chiefs franchise occurred when a 21-17 loss to the Bengals took the index to an all-time pre-Pioli low of -24.41. However, things began looking up, and by the end of 1989 the index had risen to -19.74.

13. Bam, bam, bam. Faster than Derrick Thomas beating a left tackle, the Chiefs' fortunes rose. As they headed into a heartbreaking playoff loss to the Dolphins in 1990, the index was up to -10.14. In Week 7 of 1993, a young Will Shields and an old Joe Montana had resurrected the franchise, getting above 0 for the first time since 1977 with a 17-14 win over the Chargers as part of a 5-1 start to the season. Two playoff wins would push the index to 9.30.

14. In Week 8 of 1995, a 21-7 win over the Broncos would push the index above 10 for the first time since 1975.

15. The high water mark of the Peterson/Schottenheimer/Thomas era was the end of Week 16 of the 1997 season, when the index stood at 19.07. However, the theft of the playoffs the next week by a salary-cap-cheating team signalled the fall of Rome and its helmet-haired emperor.

16. In Week 1 of the 1999 season, coach Gunther Cunningham lost to the Bears and their "high-fangled trickery" and the index fell below 10.0. The index was at 5.43 when Gunther got his walking e-mails.

17. Dick Vermeil took over a team in crisis, and the index actually fell below zero three times in his early years, Week 13 of 2001 and Weeks 3 and 17 of 2002 as he struggled to stay above zero. However, he then assembled the greatest offensive show in Kansas City history and things looked up.

18. The high point of the Vermeil era was a 9.29 index at the end of the 2003 regular season, just before we entered the puntless game in Indianapolis. When Vermeil left, the index was back down to 4.98.

19. Enter Herm. He actually managed to increase the index for 16 weeks, rising to 7.16 before the embarrassing playoff loss to Indianapolis that dropped his first-year index to 4.08. From there on out it was downhill, with the index dropping below zero in Week 13 of 2007 after a 24-10 loss to the Chargers. A 30-27 loss to the Buccaneers in Week 9 of 2008 dropped the index below -10.0, and when Herm's work was finally done in 2008 the index stood at a frightful -16.60.

20. Haley arrived, and muddled about a bit. He got us as high as -14.45 the week before his playoff game, but then a bad 2011 dropped his cumulative reign into negative growth, as he was fired at an index of -18.04.

The Crennel era began with a little positive momentum, but then the bottom dropped out. Down, down, down in that burning ring of fire. Then further down. And further. As the 2012 season came to a close, the week 15 loss to the Raiders took the franchise to its lowest index in history. Then the Colts game dragged it down further. And finally, the Broncos game took us even further into uncharted territory. As of today, the Chiefs' index is at the lowest point in franchise history, at an astonishing level of -26.09.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

So in other words, when they win it all next year, this will officially and OBJECTIVELY be the most successful era of Chiefs football ever.

My model penalizes a team heavily for losing a first-round playoff game, puts you at around breakeven for going 1-1 in the playoffs, and really rewards you for going better than 1-1.

So yes. Next year is going to be a big breakthrough.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

I approve of this data-gizmo Mr. Rain Man, and have pos-repped you for your hard work in this endeavor.

Would it be possible to create and track a purely defense-oriented version of this data-model? We have a new D-Coord and system revision coming, and it might be beneficial to track our progress outside of normal NFL parameters.

[scho63]

So financially speaking, if I invested $1000 in the Chiefs at the beginning, how much money would I have now?

Was it a good investment?

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by scho63

So financially speaking, if I invested $1000 in the Chiefs at the beginning, how much money would I have now?

Was it a good investment?

$1000 less than you had before.

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

We're really on an epic run right now, but we just started at a low point. There have been three life-altering rises in Chiefs history.

From 1960 through Super Bowl IV, the Chiefs rose 33.48 points, starting at 0 and rising to +33.48 under Hank Stram.

From 1989 through 1997, the Chiefs rose 42.4 points from Marty's arrival up to the kickoff of the vegetable oil game against the Cheaters. We went from -23.35 to +19.07

From 2013 through the present, the Chiefs have risen 36.4 points from Andy's arrival to the current moment. We went from -27.09 to our current +9.31.

Looks like Andy has the best per game record in Chiefs history, yet somehow he sucks. With Pat he will sustain to become the most successful coach the franchise has had.

[Talisman]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

My model penalizes a team heavily for losing a first-round playoff game, puts you at around breakeven for going 1-1 in the playoffs, and really rewards you for going better than 1-1.

So yes. Next year is going to be a big breakthrough.

Love all of this, Rain Man. Such great work.

On the playoff side of things, what do you think about a factor built in for breaking a slump. The playoff win against the Colts this year gained us 3 points that were immediately negated the following week with a playoff loss. However, most any fan would see this postseason as a positive for the organization's direction. Each sequential playoff loss could then cause a win to be worth that much more. Something like a 0.2 increase for each previous sequential loss > 1 (since you always lose the previous playoff game if you don't win the SB).

This year's Colts win would have been worth and additional factor of 0.6 (3 X 0.2) giving the team 4.8 points for the win, and a positive 1.8 for the postseason as a whole. The playoff win in Houston in 2016 broke a 7 game postseason losing streak and would have been worth 7.2 points.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Talisman

Love all of this, Rain Man. Such great work.

On the playoff side of things, what do you think about a factor built in for breaking a slump. The playoff win against the Colts this year gained us 3 points that were immediately negated the following week with a playoff loss. However, most any fan would see this postseason as a positive for the organization's direction. Each sequential playoff loss could then cause a win to be worth that much more. Something like a 0.2 increase for each previous sequential loss > 1 (since you always lose the previous playoff game if you don't win the SB).

This year's Colts win would have been worth and additional factor of 0.6 (3 X 0.2) giving the team 4.8 points for the win, and a positive 1.8 for the postseason as a whole. The playoff win in Houston in 2016 broke a 7 game postseason losing streak and would have been worth 7.2 points.

I think I kind of have something built in that proxies this. You get +1 points at the end of each year for making the playoffs and -1 for missing it. So there's that (which also tells you my mindset back in 2009 - I didn't even think about playoff winning or losing streaks).

I get your point, though, that a win after several losses would have more of a positive impact. At this point I'd lean toward just being consistent, especially since we have a run of Super Bowl wins coming our way.

And welcome - I haven't seen you in a bit.

[Rain Man]

I've been waiting to update this, so here you go.

The Chiefs franchise index currently stands at +24.6784. The last time it felt this good to be a Chiefs fan was Week 3 of the 1974 season, where the Chiefs started 2-1 following nine straight winning seasons that included a Super Bowl win, an AFL championship, and another Super Bowl appearance. It was Hank Stram's last year, and the barbarians were at the gates, so the index was on its way down from the 1960s glory years. Andy has made this the best time to be a Chiefs fan in 46 years.

Also recall that when Andy took over in 2013, the franchise momentum measure was at an all time low of -27.7736. When Andy arrived on the scene, it was literally the worst time ever to be a Chiefs fan based on this measure. And now we're the Super Bowl champions.

[Rain Man]

Time for an update.

According to this analysis, the week after the Buffalo playoff game was the best time to be a Chiefs fan in the history of the world. The index peaked that week with an all-time high score of 33.7310.

The previous high water mark of the franchise was a 22-9 win over the Buffalo Bills in the final week of the 1971 season, which gave us a playoff spot in a Christmas Day game against the Dolphins. We know how that turned out. Our index score was +33.6331. We didn't get back to that level until the Bills game last month.

Five of the ten best weeks to be a Chiefs fan have occurred under Andy Reid. The other five occurred under Hank Stram, and it was a long walk through the desert in between. So let's enjoy it.

[kcbubb]

Wow. This is really interesting to me. Well done and rep. I wonder if the formula could be changed? Should the value of each playoff win increase as you win more games? For example, each playoff game would increase slightly to the point that winning the Super Bowl could be worth 15 points? Winning the Super Bowl shouldn’t be worth the same amount as a winning a wild card game? And maybe not increase the negative of a playoff loss? Just something to consider.

[kcbubb]

The rams would be an interesting franchise to run through this algorithm. If we are looking at this like a stock, I wonder what their value would have been after the Super Bowl in 2000 bc they were really bad for a long time before that.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Wow. This is really interesting to me. Well done and rep. I wonder if the formula could be changed? Should the value of each playoff win increase as you win more games? For example, each playoff game would increase slightly to the point that winning the Super Bowl could be worth 15 points? Winning the Super Bowl shouldn’t be worth the same amount as a winning a wild card game? And maybe not increase the negative of a playoff loss? Just something to consider.

This is certainly subjective, so the formula could be adjusted. One thing that is a big deal is playoff success. When I put it together I decided that if you get points for each playoff win, the score rockets up for a Super Bowl win because they all stack up. So a Super Bowl win benefits a lot from the games that lead up to it.

Originally Posted by kcbubb

The rams would be an interesting franchise to run through this algorithm. If we are looking at this like a stock, I wonder what their value would have been after the Super Bowl in 2000 bc they were really bad for a long time before that.

Yeah, it would be really interesting to do this for all of the teams, and then overlay and compare. But it's more work than I want to tackle. Maybe someday when I find myself really bored. I'll tackle the AFC West teams.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Time for an update.

According to this analysis, the week after the Buffalo playoff game was the best time to be a Chiefs fan in the history of the world. The index peaked that week with an all-time high score of 33.7310.

The previous high water mark of the franchise was a 22-9 win over the Buffalo Bills in the final week of the 1971 season, which gave us a playoff spot in a Christmas Day game against the Dolphins. We know how that turned out. Our index score was +33.6331. We didn't get back to that level until the Bills game last month.

Five of the ten best weeks to be a Chiefs fan have occurred under Andy Reid. The other five occurred under Hank Stram, and it was a long walk through the desert in between. So let's enjoy it.

Why wouldn’t it be the week after the Super Bowl win?


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[Bearcat]

Rain Man is dominating the offseason.

[displacedinMN]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

The rams would be an interesting franchise to run through this algorithm. If we are looking at this like a stock, I wonder what their value would have been after the Super Bowl in 2000 bc they were really bad for a long time before that.

There would be many teams that would have had to take Chapter 13 after being in the hole for so long.