Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Buehler445]

WTF happened? EVERYTHING went down yesterday.

Originally Posted by lewdog

Here's the long overview. Generally, the bottom of a bear market isn't found until capitulation happens. On a chart, this is vertical selling. See the previous examples of this. If capitulation happens we could see a bottom around 325-300. I also find it interesting that the recent peaks of each down wave follow a very consistent trend line.

That isn't a trendline. I don't remember all the rules, but it takes more than 2 points to make one.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

WTF happened? EVERYTHING went down yesterday.




That isn't a trendline. I don't remember all the rules, but it takes more than 2 points to make one.

That's not true. A trend line connects two or more points. That line is more so showing you how far each capitulation fell. It can help you estimate where we would fall to if capitulation (quick selling all at once) happens in this current bear market. We could fall to near 300 if using that trend line. I'm not asking anyone to guess, just showing you where we are at and what could happen. I think it's also interesting to note just how high this market is compared to 2009 levels.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

That's not true. A trend line connects two or more points. That line is more so showing you how far each capitulation fell. It can help you estimate where we would fall to if capitulation (quick selling all at once) happens in this current bear market. We could fall to near 300 if using that trend line. I'm not asking anyone to guess, just showing you where we are at and what could happen. I think it's also interesting to note just how high this market is compared to 2009 levels.

The way you draw a trendline is by starting on the Lefthand side of the chart and drawing the line towards the right. The rule of thumb is that a trend line must be drawn through at least three ‘swings’ in the price to be valid.

Link

Not really a hill I’m willing to die on, but that’s what I’ve always seen.

Yeah it really is remarkable how high it is. It looks horribad on a short term chart but barely a blip if you move it back even 10 years.

But then on a %loss basis this is one of the bigger price moves. Who the hell knows.

I kicked in some extra to a IRA, thinking the timing was good. It may very well not be. 300 looks as good as anything I can come up with.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Link

Not really a hill I’m willing to die on, but that’s what I’ve always seen.

Yeah it really is remarkable how high it is. It looks horribad on a short term chart but barely a blip if you move it back even 10 years.

But then on a %loss basis this is one of the bigger price moves. Who the hell knows.

I kicked in some extra to a IRA, thinking the timing was good. It may very well not be. 300 looks as good as anything I can come up with.

Jesus Buehler, I'm not dying on this hill either. I'm simply showing what could happen if quick selling all at one times happens, which has happened twice in the past 13 years.

The current short term downward trend line now has 5 points of resistance on it, so suck on that one!!!!

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Jesus Buehler, I'm not dying on this hill either. I'm simply showing what could happen if quick selling all at one times happens, which has happened twice in the past 13 years.

The current short term downward trend line now has 5 points of resistance on it, so suck on that one!!!!

Yeah, sorry. OCD got in the way.

The current downtrend line is exactly the reason it was stupid to kick more money into the IRA.

Speaking of IRAs, your boy about screwed up. Farms operate on cash accounting because we can't control gross revenue and it gives us the flexibility to manage taxable income over time. Well, I was thinking with rising interest rates, I'd take some more income this year, pay tax on it and improve my working capital position.

Fortunately I remembered both wife and I have ROTH contributions that are income limited. I didn't do it, and need to remember that its BAD if my income gets too high. It was super easy to get my personal income WAY below the limit, so it's fine, but damn, that's just the moronic shit I'd do.

I don't pay much attention at all to my personal shit, but I'm a nazi about the farm stuff. Looks like I have another data point to manage at FYE.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

The current downtrend line is exactly the reason it was stupid to kick more money into the IRA.

Yes and no. All the stuff we talk about in threads like this is just guessing. Nothing wrong with putting money into stocks during a downtrend if you're years away from using that money. There's nothing wrong with dollar cost averaging, it's just boring to talk about.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Yes and no. All the stuff we talk about in threads like this is just guessing. Nothing wrong with putting money into stocks during a downtrend if you're years away from using that money. There's nothing wrong with dollar cost averaging, it's just boring to talk about.

I know this. but it sure feels dumb

[Rain Man]

I feel like a market dynamic has changed.

For the past year, any time there was good news the market would pop up and then people would sell off in response and drive it back down.

For the past few weeks, it's been the opposite. If bad news initially hammered the market down, then people would start buying and pull it back up.

Anyone else noticing this?

[scho63]

Originally Posted by scho63

I see a rally for the 1st quarter of 2023.

Pessimism all over and tax selling done. Too much money on sidelines with so many stocks beaten down into oblivion.

So far so good. Expect it to continue into February

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by scho63

So far so good. Expect it to continue into February

I think the FOMC meeting February 1st and the real kicker. We could really see a market rally if they back off the rate hikes for a while. If not, this could have been just another small rally in a bear market.

[lewdog]

It's been a very pattered bear market too. The ups and downs haven't been as choppy as expected.

[Kopinto]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Here's the long overview. Generally, the bottom of a bear market isn't found until capitulation happens. On a chart, this is vertical selling. See the previous examples of this. If capitulation happens we could see a bottom around 325-300. I also find it interesting that the recent peaks of each down wave follow a very consistent trend line. Meanwhile, I am thinking what assets to acquire. Beatmarket helps me a lot with that with sensible recommendations.

I believe that we could go even below 300.

[scho63]

The rotation back into tech has been spectacular. Some are up 100% from the lows from late last year.

[lewdog]

Alright, I have found what I will be parking our emergency savings fund in, that is easily accessible but offers more than a savings account doing nothing.

TBIL which is an ETF. Easier than actually buying T bills from the treasury itself, which seems less liquid. This is in my TD Ameritrade account.

Should yield 4.37% currently (will go higher) and with no risk. It's an ETF so it trades just like a stock at any moment. Hope this help someone out who doesn't want to just park their emergency money is something that returns nothing or isn't liquid enough to access like a CD.

https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/d...-yield-t-bills

[Stewie]

There are online banks paying 4.5%+ for a simple savings account. FDIC insured.