Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Iconic

my prediction: this year will suck more cock like last year

patience is key, probably won't see a real bottom till extremely late 23/early 24

Market predictions are worse the KC Chiefs seasonal record prediction threads.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Market predictions are worse the KC Chiefs seasonal record prediction threads.

I saw an article the other day that said that the median error of stock forecasting by the major Wall Street firms was something like 8 percentage points. So that basically means that they're off by nearly the entire amount of the average annual return.

I'm liking 2023 so far. I was hoping that the market would do a reset at year end, and maybe we'll get that.

I do think that the market is trying to run a year ahead, so I think it'll be better than the news indicates if there's an expectation that 2024 will be back to normalcy. I'll bet that I'm right, plus or minus eight percentage points.

[Jenson71]

Yeah, for all the doomsday talk I've read . . . it's not a terrible start. At least, Apple hasn't gotten down to the level where I want pick it up at. Is below $100 asking too much?

[myselff77]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Just play SOXL / SOXS

One of these goes up every single day

Get in / Get out

So are you usually buying in the pre market and selling same day after it moves a bit? What’s the average you gain each day when you pick correctly?

[myselff77]

Quick in and out trade this morning. Bought XPON at $2.22. Had to leave the computer so put a limit order in which executed at $2.45. Looks like I could have got a bit more had I been watching, but not bad for holding it an hour.

[lewdog]

I hope one of the young guys sees this. Many it's crazy what starting early can do. I wish I started much earlier.

[Stewie]

I'm now 99% an online banker.

I looked into online banks starting in 2019, but things were clunky and not the best.

In July last year I opened an account to see how things went (transactions, etc.). Very satisfied.

Needless to say I recently moved nearly all my money from my credit union to my new online bank.

The differences between old and new are striking:

1) Much higher interest paid on savings
2) Credit card is stellar with cash back
3) Everything is free, including checks (yes, still necessary)
4) All transactions show up immediately
5) Convenient, convenient, convenient

My bank is the hub of all investments and very important. It catches all cash from trades and holds it until a new opportunity arises.

Stewie, the mover of money.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by Stewie

I'm now 99% an online banker.

I looked into online banks starting in 2019, but things were clunky and not the best.

In July last year I opened an account to see how things went (transactions, etc.). Very satisfied.

Needless to say I recently moved nearly all my money from my credit union to my new online bank.

The differences between old and new are striking:

1) Much higher interest paid on savings
2) Credit card is stellar with cash back
3) Everything is free, including checks (yes, still necessary)
4) All transactions show up immediately
5) Convenient, convenient, convenient

My bank is the hub of all investments and very important. It catches all cash from trades and holds it until a new opportunity arises.

Stewie, the mover of money.

FDIC insured?

[Stewie]

Originally Posted by scho63

FDIC insured?

Of course

[DaFace]

I've had my checking account with Schwab and savings with Discover for about a decade at this point. The former is all mobile deposit, but they refund ATM fees anywhere in the world. The latter has a variable interest rate which is currently at 3.3%. It's not always the TOP interest rate, but it's always right there (and is a hell of a lot better than you'll get at any traditional bank).

The only downside is the extremely rare times when you have a bunch of cash that you need to deposit, so I ended up opening up a savings account with Chase (which has a branch about a quarter mile from me) and just parking $1k in it. I've only needed it a time or two, but it's nice to have the option.

[Stewie]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I've had my checking account with Schwab and savings with Discover for about a decade at this point. The former is all mobile deposit, but they refund ATM fees anywhere in the world. The latter has a variable interest rate which is currently at 3.3%. It's not always the TOP interest rate, but it's always right there (and is a hell of a lot better than you'll get at any traditional bank).

The only downside is the extremely rare times when you have a bunch of cash that you need to deposit, so I ended up opening up a savings account with Chase (which has a branch about a quarter mile from me) and just parking $1k in it. I've only needed it a time or two, but it's nice to have the option.

This sounds familiar to my situation. I have a Discover card and considered their banking options. It was a serious contender.

I ended up going with Capital One. It consolidated everything and had the best combination for my needs.

I still have my Discover card. Who can pass up 5% cash back on groceries?

[lewdog]

Here's the long overview. Generally, the bottom of a bear market isn't found until capitulation happens. On a chart, this is vertical selling. See the previous examples of this. If capitulation happens we could see a bottom around 325-300. I also find it interesting that the recent peaks of each down wave follow a very consistent trend line.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I hope one of the young guys sees this. Many it's crazy what starting early can do. I wish I started much earlier.

Makes sense but at 20 was hard to sock away 100 a month let alone 500

[Buehler445]

WTF happened? EVERYTHING went down yesterday.

Originally Posted by lewdog

Here's the long overview. Generally, the bottom of a bear market isn't found until capitulation happens. On a chart, this is vertical selling. See the previous examples of this. If capitulation happens we could see a bottom around 325-300. I also find it interesting that the recent peaks of each down wave follow a very consistent trend line.

That isn't a trendline. I don't remember all the rules, but it takes more than 2 points to make one.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

WTF happened? EVERYTHING went down yesterday.




That isn't a trendline. I don't remember all the rules, but it takes more than 2 points to make one.

That's not true. A trend line connects two or more points. That line is more so showing you how far each capitulation fell. It can help you estimate where we would fall to if capitulation (quick selling all at once) happens in this current bear market. We could fall to near 300 if using that trend line. I'm not asking anyone to guess, just showing you where we are at and what could happen. I think it's also interesting to note just how high this market is compared to 2009 levels.