Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by lewdog

This used January 3rd as the starting point and was made on May 20th.....we add roughly 32 days to 161 and we're 193 days into this bear market.

Based on past instances, recovery to new highs will likely take 2-3 years.

I don't like the look of those five-year recoveries.

[scho63]

There are TWO HUGE differences at this time that will create a soft landing for 85-90% of the US.
1. The US consumer still has a shit load of money
2. The US consumer is NOT over-leveraged like in the past so banks are in great shape

To me, the big wild card is if housing prices plunge then homeowners could be deep underwater and start walking away from their houses.
I don't think it will happen but home prices need a 25-30% haircut.

[Chazno]

Originally Posted by scho63

There are TWO HUGE differences at this time that will create a soft landing for 85-90% of the US.
1. The US consumer still has a shit load of money
2. The US consumer is NOT over-leveraged like in the past so banks are in great shape

To me, the big wild card is if housing prices plunge then homeowners could be deep underwater and start walking away from their houses.
I don't think it will happen but home prices need a 25-30% haircut.

If this is the case, why is the media trying to say that the government giving stimulus checks to the US consumer is the cause of all this? Isn't that one of the ways they got this money?

[scho63]

Originally Posted by Chazno

If this is the case, why is the media trying to say that the government giving stimulus checks to the US consumer is the cause of all this? Isn't that one of the ways they got this money?

They poured gas on the fire.

If not for Joe Manchin, we would be at 15-20% inflation based on the stupid idea to hand out MORE than the $5 trillion they did.

It was an incredibly foolish decision at the same time the Fed was helping to feed liquidity.

Yes, it jacked up inflation GREATER but it was far from the only factor.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

We're only down 21% through the end of May but Jesus Christ it feels like 155%

It's a bloodbath for the growth stocks, they are down 40-50-75-80% from the peak.

Many others also down > 50%

[scho63]

Originally Posted by Chazno

If this is the case, why is the media trying to say that the government giving stimulus checks to the US consumer is the cause of all this? Isn't that one of the ways they got this money?

Why we have had so much inflation in the order they occurred:

1. Attack on the oil industry from the first day of the new admin
2. Shutting down the economy during COVID across the globe
3. COVID's effect on the stopping and disruption of supply chain
4. COVID massive stimulus
5. Housing market short on inventory for last 4-5 years
6. The Fed's late reaction to "real" not "transitory" inflation
7. The Reopening across the globe from COVID
8. Massive labor shortage from COVID
9. The war in Ukraine

Once COVID ended and everyone was so flush with cash, the demand went through the roof and it has been a perfect storm.

I believe that part of our economy is already in a recession:
-Bottom 20% of income earners: In recession once COVID stimulus checks ended
-Next 20% of income earners: Sliding into recession and watching their savings and income being eroded from gas, food and other items
-Middle 20% of income earners: On the cusp but still in good shape with jobs, extra cash and enough cushion
-Next to top 20% of income earners: Just a little cautious on frivolous or extra spending but not in recession
-Top 20% of income earners- not even close and will not be in a recession unless it is deep, prolonged and runs across all businesses with a lot of unemployment.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I've been reading that REITs do well in inflationary environments. I hold a few, in large part because they got destroyed in the shutdown but as long as I don't sell them I still get the dividends. They don't seem to be thriving, but they've generally held their own in this latest bear market, which is a win.

TGT could be a dividend play for you coupled with a recent 50% drop in share price. Good long term prognosis and decent dividend. With looming recession that may be a bad short term play, however.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by scho63

Why we have had so much inflation in the order they occurred:

1. Attack on the oil industry from the first day of the new admin
2. Shutting down the economy during COVID across the globe
3. COVID's effect on the stopping and disruption of supply chain
4. COVID massive stimulus
5. Housing market short on inventory for last 4-5 years
6. The Fed's late reaction to "real" not "transitory" inflation
7. The Reopening across the globe from COVID
8. Massive labor shortage from COVID
9. The war in Ukraine

Once COVID ended and everyone was so flush with cash, the demand went through the roof and it has been a perfect storm.

I believe that part of our economy is already in a recession:
-Bottom 20% of income earners: In recession once COVID stimulus checks ended
-Next 20% of income earners: Sliding into recession and watching their savings and income being eroded from gas, food and other items
-Middle 20% of income earners: On the cusp but still in good shape with jobs, extra cash and enough cushion
-Next to top 20% of income earners: Just a little cautious on frivolous or extra spending but not in recession
-Top 20% of income earners- not even close and will not be in a recession unless it is deep, prolonged and runs across all businesses with a lot of unemployment.

CS and DB are priced below book value now.

Canadian banks are nearing 52-week lows. I rode them from the gutter to the penthouse and sold for a nice profit. Looks like it is time to buy again.

[lewdog]

Did we just see a dead cat bounce recently?!?!!

[scho63]

Bed Bath and Beyond may soon be having a going out of business sale.

From $70 - $5 in about a year. Ouch!

[scho63]

Every damn rally attempt today so far has been met with selling.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Popular names that are on the move are Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:PYPL) which will all be added to the Russell 1000 Value Index.

Get yourself some hot new value stocks like Facebook, NFLX, and PYPL.

dogs and cats living together... MASS HYSTERIA!

[Rain Man]

The S&P 500 was down 21 percent for the first half of the year, but so far in the second half it's on pace for a 278 percent increase.

[lewdog]

When NVDA decides to bottom and shows a reversal, I am backing up the money truck to that one.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by lewdog

When NVDA decides to bottom and shows a reversal, I am backing up the money truck to that one.

They have been so negative on the chips. I see no bottom yet for any but I agree on NVDA.

Could it hit $100?

That would be a steal