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Old 06-27-2016, 11:23 AM  
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Old 05-09-2022, 11:50 AM   #12811
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I'm not a doom-and-gloom type of guy but the clouds of recession with a housing crash are building.

=====================================================

Consumer debt soared by $52 billion in March

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/econo...rch/index.html

San Francisco (CNN Business)Americans are racking up debt at record rates.

Consumer debt levels for March 2022 climbed by $52.4 billion, an annual increase of 14%, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.

Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged by 21.4%.

Despite robust wage growth -- over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have gone up by 5.5% -- consumers are seeing those gains eroded by the highest inflation in 40 years. The cost of food is up nearly 9% over the last year, and a gallon of gas now averages $4.279 at the pump.

Paying off credit card debt is about to get even more difficult for those who don't make the minimum monthly payment: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a half-point rate hike as part of a series of actions intended to address rampant inflation. That means interest rates will rise on everything from credit cards to car loans, pressuring household budgets even further.

"All of this newfound debt that Americans have is only going to get more and more expensive in the coming months," said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst for Lending Tree.

The rise in debt levels is likely driven by two factors, Schulz said. First, there is some pent-up spending after lockdown. Then there are other cash-strapped individuals who are turning to credit cards to pay for basic needs that have grown more expensive, he said.

"An increase in credit card debt can be a sign of confidence, or it can be a sign of concern," Schulz said. "I think we're seeing both of those simultaneously right now in this country, and it's just another example of how different people have been impacted in the wake of the pandemic."
Does this include home loans?
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Old 05-09-2022, 12:08 PM   #12812
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Does this include home loans?
I don't think so.
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Old 05-09-2022, 12:27 PM   #12813
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Does this include home loans?
I would think the consumer debt number would.

The revolving number that I freaked out about wouldn’t. Except for maybe a HELOC.
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Old 05-09-2022, 12:38 PM   #12814
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The revolving number that I freaked out about wouldn’t. Except for maybe a HELOC.
For sure. A 21% surge in credit card debt and the like is pretty concerning.
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Old 05-09-2022, 01:24 PM   #12815
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Old 05-09-2022, 01:30 PM   #12816
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Real estate is another domino that will fall I imagine. Doesn't matter what the supply is like when your average pool of buyers can barely afford milk and eggs let alone deal with the rising rates on mortgages.

Demand is going to start dwindling.
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Old 05-09-2022, 02:37 PM   #12817
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Old 05-09-2022, 04:14 PM   #12818
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I have a stuped question for the smart people here. My long term portfolio is bleeding just like everyone elses. The stocks I have are mixed , mutual funds , ETF's , tech stocks etc...

Would it be smart , right now, to go ahead and harvest for taxes and move to index funds. We know it ALWAYS goes back up. But the implication of tax harvesting is a real thing that can put money back in your pocket.

Even if you're say bag holding NFLX and just move that money over too AAPL wouldn't it benefit a person best to do that???? You're claimin the loss and getting in AAPL at a great entry.
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Old 05-09-2022, 04:28 PM   #12819
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Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin View Post
I have a stuped question for the smart people here. My long term portfolio is bleeding just like everyone elses. The stocks I have are mixed , mutual funds , ETF's , tech stocks etc...

Would it be smart , right now, to go ahead and harvest for taxes and move to index funds. We know it ALWAYS goes back up. But the implication of tax harvesting is a real thing that can put money back in your pocket.

Even if you're say bag holding NFLX and just move that money over too AAPL wouldn't it benefit a person best to do that???? You're claimin the loss and getting in AAPL at a great entry.
I never like to think about this question. My general thinking is that it's always going to be better to sell higher because I'd rather pay 15 percent of a gain than take a loss But maybe if you're wanting to sell some stuff that's still up from where you bought it, it's a good time to sell some stuff where you're losing money and offset that tax hit.

But overall, I'd rather sell everything at a gain.
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Old 05-09-2022, 04:47 PM   #12820
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My thought is , if you have a stock at a loss and you're in the 24% tax bracket and expect to have to pay taxes at the end of the year and you have a $1000 loss. You can sell that and reduce your taxable income by 1K and eliminate $240 in taxes.

Therefore claiming an immediate 24% gain.

Stocks that you've been averaging in over time may have certain "LOTS" you can eliminate at a loss even though you are up in the stock. Take it over to another stock and get in the low.

I would also like to sell everything while its up but everythings not up.

BTW , I only asked for people smarter than me to chime in , I should have included dumb people smarter than me. Apologies.
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Old 05-09-2022, 05:00 PM   #12821
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Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin View Post
My thought is , if you have a stock at a loss and you're in the 24% tax bracket and expect to have to pay taxes at the end of the year and you have a $1000 loss. You can sell that and reduce your taxable income by 1K and eliminate $240 in taxes.

Therefore claiming an immediate 24% gain.

Stocks that you've been averaging in over time may have certain "LOTS" you can eliminate at a loss even though you are up in the stock. Take it over to another stock and get in the low.

I would also like to sell everything while its up but everythings not up.

BTW , I only asked for people smarter than me to chime in , I should have included dumb people smarter than me. Apologies.

My error. I should not have responded.
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Old 05-09-2022, 05:21 PM   #12822
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My error. I should not have responded.
LOl. I consider myself a dumbass . You're waaaay smarter than me. That comment was not directed at you . I was just sayin. Sometimes I try to be funny and it comes out wrong.
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Old 05-09-2022, 05:55 PM   #12823
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin View Post
I have a stuped question for the smart people here. My long term portfolio is bleeding just like everyone elses. The stocks I have are mixed , mutual funds , ETF's , tech stocks etc...

Would it be smart , right now, to go ahead and harvest for taxes and move to index funds. We know it ALWAYS goes back up. But the implication of tax harvesting is a real thing that can put money back in your pocket.

Even if you're say bag holding NFLX and just move that money over too AAPL wouldn't it benefit a person best to do that???? You're claimin the loss and getting in AAPL at a great entry.
Philosophically, I've never been in favor of letting tax strategy guide investment strategy.

That being said, if you want out of Netflix or whatever, GTFO and if it's at a loss, fine.
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Old 05-09-2022, 07:37 PM   #12824
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Old 05-09-2022, 09:16 PM   #12825
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RIVN - Rivian Automotive INC.

Ive been seriously considering investing in this company since it went public. Of course it immediately opened up about 29 and went up as high as 179.46. These EV stocks are crazy like that so I tend to let them settle before considering investing. NKLA was the first one I really wanted to invest in, boy did I dodge a bullet there.

Ive watched many of these EV companies, some suggested in this forum, NIO, LCID, NKLA, GOEV and of course TSLA. Only one, TSLA have I regretted not investing in. Looking at that list makes me think why do I want to jump into this sector at all?

The one company I feel good about is RIVN. They actually are manufacturing and selling their vehicles. A truck and an SUV. I would actually buy one of their Trucks after looking into it.

I am a full size pickup man and although this is not a full size its not a mini truck either. Its a good looking truck, other than the front end. Wish they would have designed the front more like the rest of the truck.

The stock is back down close to opening value, its much better looking than the ridiculous Tesla Cybertruck. Its still pricey but I do think it will be popular and capture a fair percentage of the EV truck and SUV market.

If you are an investor, how do you feel about this stock?
If you are a pickup owner or want to be, would you consider buying one of these?

https://rivian.com/r1t


Ford was one of their early investors, and they are selling 8 million of their 102 million shares. The stock reached an all time low because of that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/rivi...-start-up.html
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