Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by scho63

We need to see housing prices and gas prices begin to decline. If they do not, the .5% increase failed and that's just going to drag this shit show out longer.

The Fed is behind the curve and probably should have done the .75% increase as much as it might have been painful.

It's not stopping the housing market here. The train was already moving way too fast for .5 to slow it down.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by ghak99

It's not stopping the housing market here. The train was already moving way too fast for .5 to slow it down.

With inflation high across the board and rates for mortgages jumping, the market is losing more and more low end buyers. This is the start of the decline.

[displacedinMN]

It's a bad day when there are news alerts about the dow drop

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[Rain Man]

Here's a big picture question for people. For the sake of discussion, let's assume that the stock market doesn't go to zero this year and I'll still have some money going forward.

I have IRA accounts (tax-deferred) and regular investment accounts (taxed) to fund my retirement. I started the IRA accounts when I was young, and started the investment accounts later, after I had the cash flow to save beyond the IRA limits.

Because I started the IRA accounts at a younger age and tend to be a buy and hold guy, those accounts are much more heavily populated with non-tech stocks. As a general rule, imagine that they're companies like consumer goods and industrials and health care and stuff. They often pay dividends. Think classic Dow and S&P 500 stocks.

On the other hand, my investment accounts are more tech stocks. This is where I have most of my FAANG stocks and software companies and robotics and Tesla and so on. Think NASDAQ stocks. They're less likely to pay dividends and have been growing faster over the past decade.

It's not a clear distinction or a strategy. It's just a pattern because I had more money to spend in my investment accounts as the tech sector was growing.

So my question, then, relates to my optimal retirement cash flow strategy.

My hope is that I won't withdraw money out of my IRAs (other than required minimum distributions) for another 15-20 years. My early retirement will be funded by the investment accounts.

Am I better off....

1. Keeping the investment profiles the way they are now?
2. Shuffling my holdings so that I have the dividend stocks in my investment accounts and the tech stocks in my IRAs?
3. Mixing them up so there's no pattern?

My initial hunch is Approach 2. The dividend stocks are more stable so I'm less likely to need to sell at a low point. The dividends will generate cash so that I have to sell less. And the tech stocks have historically grown faster so they'd be better in the IRAs for another 20 years if that pattern persists. This would require me to take some capital gains taxes as I do the shuffle, though, which is costing me money that would otherwise be growing.

Again, this all assumes that we're not scavenging for post-apocalyptic food scraps as the stock market continues it's 2022 plunge toward zero.

Maybe I'm missing something, or maybe it doesn't matter. But it seems like there's probably an optimal strategy. What say ye, denizens of the football internet?

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

The Fed wants the economy to weaken, dude. That's the only way they're going to slow the labor market and temper inflation. Don't kid yourself otherwise.

There's a reason why rates are now unchanged from pre-Fed yesterday.

We are in the same page. They definitely tempered earlier statements. After the negative GDP they are trying to glide the plane down instead of crash landing it. The ultimate goal is QT measures that slow the economy and temper growth. It’s a tricky balance right now.

[lewdog]

Lots of room to go lower too.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Maybe I'm missing something, or maybe it doesn't matter. But it seems like there's probably an optimal strategy. What say ye, denizens of the football internet?

I would be inclined to not pay LTCG across a whole portfolio just to shift strategy. I guess I'd end up with 3 because I'd try to do it more organically. Balanace isn't bad either

In retirement you may qualify for the 0% LT cap gains rate depending on circumstances. That might be a good time to move some around. I've been surprised how high those brackets go. If you're a couple w/ no income other than a bit from dividends you can seemingly claim 105kish in LT gains at 0% when you include the standard deduction.

[Stewie]

Sell in May and go away...

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

[chiefforlife]

RIVN - Rivian Automotive INC.

Ive been seriously considering investing in this company since it went public. Of course it immediately opened up about 29 and went up as high as 179.46. These EV stocks are crazy like that so I tend to let them settle before considering investing. NKLA was the first one I really wanted to invest in, boy did I dodge a bullet there.

Ive watched many of these EV companies, some suggested in this forum, NIO, LCID, NKLA, GOEV and of course TSLA. Only one, TSLA have I regretted not investing in. Looking at that list makes me think why do I want to jump into this sector at all?

The one company I feel good about is RIVN. They actually are manufacturing and selling their vehicles. A truck and an SUV. I would actually buy one of their Trucks after looking into it.

I am a full size pickup man and although this is not a full size its not a mini truck either. Its a good looking truck, other than the front end. Wish they would have designed the front more like the rest of the truck.

The stock is back down close to opening value, its much better looking than the ridiculous Tesla Cybertruck. Its still pricey but I do think it will be popular and capture a fair percentage of the EV truck and SUV market.

If you are an investor, how do you feel about this stock?
If you are a pickup owner or want to be, would you consider buying one of these?

https://rivian.com/r1t

[DaFace]

I don't pretend at all to know about the investing side of most individual stocks, but Rivian is having major production issues. I'd be a bit nervous because of that, but their product itself is great if they can get the volume up.

[Rain Man]

It may be a good company, but my conscience will not let me invest in a vehicle with a front end like that.

[scho63]

I'm not a doom-and-gloom type of guy but the clouds of recession with a housing crash are building.

=====================================================

Consumer debt soared by $52 billion in March

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/econo...rch/index.html

San Francisco (CNN Business)Americans are racking up debt at record rates.

Consumer debt levels for March 2022 climbed by $52.4 billion, an annual increase of 14%, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.

Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged by 21.4%.

Despite robust wage growth -- over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have gone up by 5.5% -- consumers are seeing those gains eroded by the highest inflation in 40 years. The cost of food is up nearly 9% over the last year, and a gallon of gas now averages $4.279 at the pump.

Paying off credit card debt is about to get even more difficult for those who don't make the minimum monthly payment: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a half-point rate hike as part of a series of actions intended to address rampant inflation. That means interest rates will rise on everything from credit cards to car loans, pressuring household budgets even further.

"All of this newfound debt that Americans have is only going to get more and more expensive in the coming months," said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst for Lending Tree.

The rise in debt levels is likely driven by two factors, Schulz said. First, there is some pent-up spending after lockdown. Then there are other cash-strapped individuals who are turning to credit cards to pay for basic needs that have grown more expensive, he said.

"An increase in credit card debt can be a sign of confidence, or it can be a sign of concern," Schulz said. "I think we're seeing both of those simultaneously right now in this country, and it's just another example of how different people have been impacted in the wake of the pandemic."

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by scho63

I'm not a doom-and-gloom type of guy but the clouds of recession with a housing crash are building.

=====================================================

Consumer debt soared by $52 billion in March

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/econo...rch/index.html

San Francisco (CNN Business)Americans are racking up debt at record rates.

Consumer debt levels for March 2022 climbed by $52.4 billion, an annual increase of 14%, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.

Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged by 21.4%.

Despite robust wage growth -- over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have gone up by 5.5% -- consumers are seeing those gains eroded by the highest inflation in 40 years. The cost of food is up nearly 9% over the last year, and a gallon of gas now averages $4.279 at the pump.

Paying off credit card debt is about to get even more difficult for those who don't make the minimum monthly payment: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a half-point rate hike as part of a series of actions intended to address rampant inflation. That means interest rates will rise on everything from credit cards to car loans, pressuring household budgets even further.

"All of this newfound debt that Americans have is only going to get more and more expensive in the coming months," said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst for Lending Tree.

The rise in debt levels is likely driven by two factors, Schulz said. First, there is some pent-up spending after lockdown. Then there are other cash-strapped individuals who are turning to credit cards to pay for basic needs that have grown more expensive, he said.

"An increase in credit card debt can be a sign of confidence, or it can be a sign of concern," Schulz said. "I think we're seeing both of those simultaneously right now in this country, and it's just another example of how different people have been impacted in the wake of the pandemic."

Holy balls. I was going to pop on and say it's probably guys locking in debt before the rate hike, but SON OF A BITCH 21% increase in credit? What the hell? I hope to all hell it's not the bottom end of the labor market that is getting crushed by inflation. That would bode poorly for the times to come.

[scho63]

WTF HAPPENED TO PALANTIR???

I thought this would be a great stock on what they were doing.

$7.65 ????

Jeez, this market is merciless