Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

So I’m sitting on a zoom presentation from KSU extension about the Russia/Ukraine shit.

One of the dudes just said Russia raised their bond rates from 8.5% to 20(!)% to stem the free fall of the ruble.

Does it make any sense to buy some Russian bonds and take them to term? I don’t know what instruments would even be available, but a 20% return on … anything in any term isn’t a bad return. Plus if they pay out rubles after a recovery of the ruble compared to US dollars (no idea if this is possible or not). Obviously the risk would be if Russia collapsed and they’re worthless, but that seems unlikely.

I know little about bonds. Am I missing something here?

You’re missing possible sanctions coming down on being a foreigner and owning any of that.

Plus trusting Russia with your money.

No
Thanks.

[petegz28]

****, market is crashing.......

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

****, market is crashing.......

Technicals are out the window now.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Technicals are out the window now.

Yeah, as I feared, the immediate support levels are getting blasted.

[petegz28]

Down over 3% on the QQQs.....

[MTG#10]

Originally Posted by scho63

Already paid your Mom and sister $5 each for two blow jobs and a rim job.

Wanna bet your existence on CP?

You have no balls, just a big bullshit mouth and a loser strategy.

Gonna take the bet pussy?

Dude I dont give a shit where your dumbass has or hasn't been. If you really have been there that makes you an even bigger moron than I already knew you were for thinking their main line of business was still phones. And I guran****ingtee my "loser strategy" has netted me more in the last couple years than yours has.

Now stop getting so worked up before your fatass strokes out or has a heart attack.

[Rain Man]

I recognize that I'm an optimist on this stuff, though historically optimism is a good thing for investing in stocks.

But here's my thinking. Some of this drop (and much of the recent drop) is due to the Ukraine invasion. It's a war, so it'll end or stalemate at some point. Unless the world goes insane and a bunch of nuclear launches destroy civilization, that means we'll gain back those losses once the uncertainty ends. And if civilization is destroyed, my money's gone anyway. So this seems like a time to buy.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I recognize that I'm an optimist on this stuff, though historically optimism is a good thing for investing in stocks.

But here's my thinking. Some of this drop (and much of the recent drop) is due to the Ukraine invasion. It's a war, so it'll end or stalemate at some point. Unless the world goes insane and a bunch of nuclear launches destroy civilization, that means we'll gain back those losses once the uncertainty ends. And if civilization is destroyed, my money's gone anyway. So this seems like a time to buy.

It flipped over before that.

I'm a dumbass, but I'm guessing the market movers were scared about the inflation.

Inflation - employment stagnation -

At least that's what happened in the 70s.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Obviously the risk would be if Russia collapsed and they’re worthless, but that seems unlikely.

I know little about bonds. Am I missing something here?

.

Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley predicts Venezuela-style default in Russia by mid-spring.

Investors have already valued the country’s 2023 bonds at about 29 cents on the U.S. dollar, the lowest figure in history according to data collected by Bloomberg.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

.

Holy ****ing balls.

What business do they have getting in a war if they're that ****ed? Or is it just that the Western Countries set out to **** Russia in response.

I'd be interested to see the numbers they're using for that analysis because if it's based on the devaluation of the Ruble... it's unlikely it will stay there (I think?) and if there is one thing Russia is not, it's a 3rd world country.

[MTG#10]

Bought 150 more AMC today @ 15, average down to 21.32/share now. Still up big overall, and will be buying this site from Kyle when it rips again.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Or is it just that the Western Countries set out to **** Russia in response.

I'd be interested to see the numbers they're using for that analysis because if it's based on the devaluation of the Ruble... it's unlikely it will stay there (I think?) and if there is one thing Russia is not, it's a 3rd world country.

It's a combination of the sanctions and actions by companies.
The two banks targeted by sanctions European businesses have already folded.
With the Ruble hurting, the central bank would normally lean on foreign currency reserves but they're limited in that regard.

Shell & BP abandoned multi-billion dollar projects with two large Russian Oil producers. I'm sure they'll sell them at pennies on the dollar.

Visa & MC made it where cards issued by banks in Russia, only work in Russia. Cards issued outside Russia, won't work in Russia. Paypal stopped service to Russia.

Tons of retail vendors have just closed all their shops.

At some point, if you're isolated from the world economy and nobody will invest money into your gov or businesses, does your credit rating even matter?

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

It's a combination of the sanctions and actions by companies.
The two banks targeted by sanctions European businesses have already folded.
With the Ruble hurting, the central bank would normally lean on foreign currency reserves but they're limited in that regard.

Shell & BP abandoned multi-billion dollar projects with two large Russian Oil producers. I'm sure they'll sell them at pennies on the dollar.

Visa & MC made it where cards issued by banks in Russia, only work in Russia. Cards issued outside Russia, won't work in Russia. Paypal stopped service to Russia.

Tons of retail vendors have just closed all their shops.

At some point, if you're isolated from the world economy and nobody will invest money into your gov or businesses, does your credit rating even matter?

The problem with that line of thinking is that they won't ever not do commerce with China. A majority of their energy imports come from Russia and that isn't changing.

And frankly, from an economic standpoint, it's better to get along, because if it comes to picking sides, China probably goes with Russia. Too much shared border and low-freight commerce to shit where you eat in that regard.

Spoiler for potential DC:

Spoiler!

There has been too much overt confrontation by us for me to feel comfortable. For as bad as we wanted out of Afghanistan, where we had vast military superiority, seems like we're awfully itchy to stick our nose i where we only have slight military superiority - and we probably don't if China dives in.

**** all this shit. Let's just make money, huh?

[-King-]

Originally Posted by MTG#10

Bought 150 more AMC today @ 15, average down to 21.32/share now. Still up big overall, and will be buying this site from Kyle when it rips again.

Wut?

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by -King-

Wut?

I'm presuming he's getting the "up big" comment from sales he made while it was high.

It's like, the only way.