Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by scho63

I'm liking Disney here for a long term buy

Looking real good.

[scho63]

Traders buying beat down stocks.

Tax selling pretty much over

[scho63]

Originally Posted by scho63

Look for Disney to get back to $180 or more over the next 2 months

Originally Posted by scho63

Looking real good.

I bought some options out in Feb

[Iconic]

Retail is gonna get rekt so bad. A crash is basically inevitable this year.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by Iconic

Retail is gonna get rekt so bad. A crash is basically inevitable this year.

You would think but consumers are just spending like crazy. Christmas sales numbers will tell a lot.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Iconic

Retail is gonna get rekt so bad. A crash is basically inevitable this year.

Why do you think that? It's a boom time for younger workers who are more likely to have kids and who are still in acquisition mode on household goods. I would think that portends growth in retail over the next several months.

[Iconic]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Why do you think that? It's a boom time for younger workers who are more likely to have kids and who are still in acquisition mode on household goods. I would think that portends growth in retail over the next several months.

IMO over leveraged economy. Credit cards are being maxed out, savings accounts dwindled, the wealth effect tells us that consumers spend more as asset prices rise. Well asset prices have risen, but only because of this toxic hyperinflationary environment created by the fed. They are now trying to fight the very monster they created through raising interest rates and tapering. When they do this, borrowing becomes harder, liquidity removed from the market, and hence the 'crash'.

Put simple, we are ****ed and the entire economy is in for necessary and serious correction. Not to mention Covid, Russia, and China fear plaguing 2022. It's a bad time to be a buyer right now. Pretty much everything is over priced.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by Iconic

IMO over leveraged economy. Credit cards are being maxed out, savings accounts dwindled,

You couldn't be more wrong about this.

It's just the opposite.

[scho63]

The inflation part is the great unknown.

That would be a depresser on things.

[Iconic]

Originally Posted by scho63

You couldn't be more wrong about this.

It's just the opposite.

Stimuluses are gone, child tax credits are gone.

Consumers have already exhausted their savings. Look for yourself they are below pre-pandemic readings.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

Credit card debt is surging higher.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/27/holi...card-debt.html

Retail won't be able to buy these toppy dips forever.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by scho63

The inflation part is the great unknown.

That would be a depresser on things.

Inflation is my biggest concern. I don't see it slowing down as fast as we're hearing, because wages are going up and production and shipping costs are going up and people have more money to spend.

I've been reading that good stocks in an inflationary environment are companies that can easily siphon off increased dollar flows (e.g., banks and credit card companies) and low-cost consumer goods (e.g., Coke and Pepsi, fast food, etc.) What do you all think?

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Iconic

Stimuluses are gone, child tax credits are gone.

Consumers have already exhausted their savings. Look for yourself they are below pre-pandemic readings.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

Credit card debt is surging higher.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/27/holi...card-debt.html

Retail won't be able to buy these toppy dips forever.

That doesn't look bad to me. Savings rates have basically returned to normal, and credit card balances are moving back up after being paid down last year.

In the big picture that's not as good as the situation last year where people were saving and paying down debt, but it's just moving back to historic norms based on what I'm reading.

[eDave]

Nobody knows shit about ****.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by eDave

Nobody knows shit about ****.

Well, yeah. I mostly just guess.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by eDave

Nobody knows shit about ****.

I know all about shit.