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Old 11-28-2016, 01:25 PM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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NYT Playoff Simulator is up for 2016
I don't know about you guys, but I loved this thing last year. It's similar to cdcox's old forecasting software and is lots of fun for seeing how our chances at the playoffs shift in various scenarios.

League-wide view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html

Chiefs view:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f-picture.html
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Old 12-26-2016, 11:41 AM   #106
O.city O.city is offline
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I just don't see the Phins beating new england this weekend.
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Old 12-26-2016, 11:43 AM   #107
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Best chance is for Mia to beat NE and give Oak the #1 seed (assuming Denver lays down). Then Pitt and NE will play in the AFCDG. Miami will be gunning for the #5 seed as they wanna travel to Houston.
If we don't get a bye this would be best. Miami probably won't beat ne but they have beaten them at home before.
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Old 12-26-2016, 11:44 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by Dinny Bossa Nova View Post
So who we posta root for then?

Dinny
For the Chiefs and against the Raidas.
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Old 12-26-2016, 11:47 AM   #109
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Pitt is not that great on the road.


They are a totally different team in Pittsburgh.




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Old 12-26-2016, 11:47 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by NJChiefsFan View Post
If we don't get a bye this would be best. Miami probably won't beat ne but they have beaten them at home before.
As I said going to Houston rather than to Pittsburgh could be enough motivation for Miami. Too bad it won't matter because playing @SD is easier than playing NE.
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Old 12-26-2016, 11:49 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by gold_and_red View Post
Best chance is for Mia to beat NE and give Oak the #1 seed (assuming Denver lays down). Then Pitt and NE will play in the AFCDG. Miami will be gunning for the #5 seed as they wanna travel to Houston.
Wiggy.
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Old 12-26-2016, 11:50 AM   #112
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I know we have less than fun memories of bye week seasons, but to root against the bye is just nuts.

An extra week off gives us:
1) An extra week for guys to rest and heal.
2) An extra week of our next opponent to play and get banged up.
3) One less chance to lose.
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Old 12-26-2016, 12:26 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
Here's what the AFC looks like after this week:

1. Patriots (81%) or Raiders (19%)
2. Raiders (53%) or Chiefs (28%) or Patriots (19%)
3. Steelers (100%)
4. Texans (100%)
5. Chiefs (49%) or Dolphins (23%) or Raiders (28%)
6. Dolphins (77%) or Chiefs (23%)

I'm wondering where they figure the percentages.

The Raiders have a 53% chance of beating the Broncos in Denver with their backup QB? The Chiefs have a 28% chance of beating San Diego? I understand the Raiders need only one thing to happen & the Chiefs need two things to happen but I don't think the Raiders have a better than 50/50 chance at Denver with McGloin.




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Old 12-26-2016, 12:32 PM   #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KChiefs1 View Post
I'm wondering where they figure the percentages.

The Raiders have a 53% chance of beating the Broncos in Denver with their backup QB? The Chiefs have a 28% chance of beating San Diego? I understand the Raiders need only one thing to happen & the Chiefs need two things to happen but I don't think the Raiders have a better than 50/50 chance at Denver with McGloin.




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Maybe its a 50% chance they beat Denver, and they add the 3% chance the Chiefs loose to the Chargers making it 53% chance they win the division.
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Old 12-26-2016, 12:33 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
I know we have less than fun memories of bye week seasons, but to root against the bye is just nuts.

An extra week off gives us:
1) An extra week for guys to rest and heal.
2) An extra week of our next opponent to play and get banged up.
3) One less chance to lose.

4) Reid with a bye week
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Old 12-26-2016, 12:39 PM   #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KChiefs1 View Post
I'm wondering where they figure the percentages.

The Raiders have a 53% chance of beating the Broncos in Denver with their backup QB? The Chiefs have a 28% chance of beating San Diego? I understand the Raiders need only one thing to happen & the Chiefs need two things to happen but I don't think the Raiders have a better than 50/50 chance at Denver with McGloin.




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It's a stats model. Injuries aren't a part of the equation.
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Old 12-26-2016, 01:08 PM   #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KChiefs1 View Post
I'm wondering where they figure the percentages.

The Raiders have a 53% chance of beating the Broncos in Denver with their backup QB? The Chiefs have a 28% chance of beating San Diego? I understand the Raiders need only one thing to happen & the Chiefs need two things to happen but I don't think the Raiders have a better than 50/50 chance at Denver with McGloin.




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They just look at every possible outcome for every game. They aren't figuring in which teams are better, injuries, or anything like that. Just all 32 teams and every possible combination of wins and losses. They run all of the hundreds of different outcomes, then take what percentage of those gets the outcome you are looking at (bye, 5th seed, etc.).

In other words, they see that the Chiefs need a win and the Raiders a loss for KC to win the division. It doesn't look at how likely the Chiefs are to beat SD or the Raiders to beat the Broncos, just that they need to win and the Raiders need to lose to get that outcome.
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Old 12-26-2016, 01:09 PM
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Old 12-26-2016, 01:10 PM   #118
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Any scenario with a bye is orders of magnitude better than having to win 3 games on the road to get to the SB. Anyone who thinks otherwise is crazy.
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Old 12-26-2016, 01:41 PM   #119
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Doesn't Brady struggle in Miami?
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Old 12-26-2016, 01:42 PM   #120
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The dolphins have a stout dl that usually gives them oroblems.
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