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Old 06-27-2016, 11:23 AM  
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Old 12-03-2021, 09:40 AM   #11971
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I am not liking this market at all. Heavy selling into every up move. Market internals look like shit, overblown fear about Omicron......

If you are a long term investor I would be ready to start dipping in but I would go slow....
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Old 12-03-2021, 09:53 AM   #11972
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we push much lower and we are going to have an outside day which can be good but yet still not good..

What is an outside day, you ask??

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o...dereversal.asp
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Old 12-03-2021, 09:56 AM   #11973
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
It is very hard to guess when a stock is going to KEEP rising.

You buy it when it's going up it might get dumped shortly thereafter. Good way to become a goddamn bag holder.

I'd rather play it conservatively. I'll buy at 52-week or 6-month lows and bet on it going up in the short term. That has worked well for me.
That’s not playing conservatively, that’s more risky than my trading.

It’s what most people think and it’s why 90% of traders lose. A “cheap” stock is many times cheap for a reason and it’s harder for individual stocks to reverse a trend than continue a current one. That’s why you buy stocks while they trend higher and set stop losses on moves up to decrease downside risk and lock in made gains.

It’s ok if you don’t want to learn though. I’ve provided plenty of education in here and some people just prefer guessing without a plan, which is how you become a bag holder.
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Old 12-03-2021, 09:57 AM   #11974
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
I am not liking this market at all. Heavy selling into every up move. Market internals look like shit, overblown fear about Omicron......

If you are a long term investor I would be ready to start dipping in but I would go slow....
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
we push much lower and we are going to have an outside day which can be good but yet still not good..

What is an outside day, you ask??

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o...dereversal.asp
Pete, you are very on point in this thread.

Makes me wonder if your posts in other threads are jokes.
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:02 AM   #11975
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Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
That’s not playing conservatively, that’s more risky than my trading.

It’s what most people think and it’s why 90% of traders lose. A “cheap” stock is many times cheap for a reason and it’s harder for individual stocks to reverse a trend than continue a current one. That’s why you buy stocks while they trend higher and set stop losses on moves up to decrease downside risk and lock in made gains.

It’s ok if you don’t want to learn though. I’ve provided plenty of education in here and some people just prefer guessing without a plan, which is how you become a bag holder.
As always you know everything.
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:07 AM   #11976
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I should say if we get another outside day and we are about too...this will make the 2nd in 3 days and the 3rd since the sell off started which actually started with an outside day
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:09 AM   #11977
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
As always you know everything.
Nope, just trying to educate you. Trading isn’t about knowing everything. It’s about having a system where you only need to be correct 50% of the time to make money. And it surly isn’t guessing or buying stocks in a down trend.

I’m sorry you won’t listen to any advice that’s trying to help you.
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:24 AM   #11978
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Nope, just trying to educate you. Trading isn’t about knowing everything. It’s about having a system where you only need to be correct 50% of the time to make money. And it surly isn’t guessing or buying stocks in a down trend.

I’m sorry you won’t listen to any advice that’s trying to help you.
The "good traders" will tell you that you only need to be right 33% of the time. I call bullshit unless you are seriously funded to be able to scale in and out of several positions.

Day trading or swing trading stocks is tough because you have several factors to consider:

Screen the stocks
How is the overall market in relation to the stock
How is the overall sector in relation to the overall market
How is the overall sector in relation to the stock
Analyst "Recommendations" that move a stock quickly one way or the other

That's why I don't do it anymore. Finding the stocks is a pain and time consuming. If I do dabble in it I try to do it with a buy-write call spread or something.

I'd rather focus on the overall market, e.g. SPY, QQQ, etc.
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:29 AM   #11979
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If you want to gamble today, right now is a good time to buy the SPY if you think we will head back up towards the close. Seeing a good buying spot.

My concern though is people selling into the close not wanting to be long over the Omicron weekend....
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:30 AM   #11980
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Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
It’s about having a system where you only need to be correct 50% of the time to make money. And it surly isn’t guessing or buying stocks in a down trend.
In your opinion, Mr. Know It All

My system works just fine for me.
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:33 AM   #11981
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
The "good traders" will tell you that you only need to be right 33% of the time. I call bullshit unless you are seriously funded to be able to scale in and out of several positions.

Day trading or swing trading stocks is tough because you have several factors to consider:

Screen the stocks
How is the overall market in relation to the stock
How is the overall sector in relation to the overall market
How is the overall sector in relation to the stock
Analyst "Recommendations" that move a stock quickly one way or the other

That's why I don't do it anymore. Finding the stocks is a pain and time consuming. If I do dabble in it I try to do it with a buy-write call spread or something.

I'd rather focus on the overall market, e.g. SPY, QQQ, etc.
I’ve made money in months where I’m 40% accurate, but not lower than that. Goal is to always have win/loss ratio be of 2:1 or greater. It’s all about managing risk.

I trade on Mark Minervini principles. I pay for a screener that I can manipulate to look for stocks that meet certain rules. I can scan through a list of 700 stocks in about 30 minutes looking for certain patterns.

Best book I’ve ever read.

Think & Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules & Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard https://www.amazon.com/dp/0996307931...J5N4CX5K0MQ44A
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:34 AM   #11982
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
If you want to gamble today, right now is a good time to buy the SPY if you think we will head back up towards the close. Seeing a good buying spot.

My concern though is people selling into the close not wanting to be long over the Omicron weekend....
No way I’m holding over the weekend given current conditions.
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:39 AM   #11983
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Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
I’ve made money in months where I’m 40% accurate, but not lower than that. Goal is to always have win/loss ratio be of 2:1 or greater. It’s all about managing risk.

I trade on Mark Minervini principles. I pay for a screener that I can manipulate to look for stocks that meet certain rules. I can scan through a list of 700 stocks in about 30 minutes looking for certain patterns.

Best book I’ve ever read.

Think & Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules & Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard https://www.amazon.com/dp/0996307931...J5N4CX5K0MQ44A
I might have to check it out
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:52 AM   #11984
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Since we are on the topic of books, if you have not ever looked into technical analysis and want to learn how to "read the charts" this is the Bible. I had the fist edition called Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets back in the early 90's but the concepts were for stocks as well. Murphy has since been noted as one of the best in the technical analysis arena.

I would read this well before you start reading any other books on trading that involve charts.

https://www.amazon.com/Technical-Ana...s%2C185&sr=8-3
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Old 12-03-2021, 10:57 AM   #11985
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Since we are on the topic of books, if you have not ever looked into technical analysis and want to learn how to "read the charts" this is the Bible. I had the fist edition called Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets back in the early 90's but the concepts were for stocks as well. Murphy has since been noted as one of the best in the technical analysis arena.

I would read this well before you start reading any other books on trading that involve charts.

https://www.amazon.com/Technical-Ana...s%2C185&sr=8-3
I own that one too.

Great read and very dense. Definitely provides the introduction needed for technical analysis before you learn your own trading style.
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