Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by blake5676

I've been kinda kicking myself over the past month for not getting in on X when it bottomed out. I was hesitant to pull the trigger as they had nothing but crap news for a good 3-4 weeks straight. I think it got down close to $18 or so. Anyhow, I've been watching and it's slowly coming back up. Might go ahead and pull the trigger still...

The range on X over the last 10 years is $196 high and $7.85 low

[wutamess]

I got in on this when you mentioned it at $22. Had a limit order to sell at $20. It went to $19.... I've been keeping an eye on it. Do you think it could still be a good long termer?

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by wutamess

I got in on this when you mentioned it at $22. Had a limit order to sell at $20. It went to $19.... I've been keeping an eye on it. Do you think it could still be a good long termer?

Well, I bought it at 22. If you read the article I posted ,JP Morgan has a target price of 51. It's at 25 today. My feeling is that with Trump in office he's going to look out for the steel industry. I wish I would have bought it at 8 but I didn't.

Doesn't mean I'm right.

[wutamess]

When these analysts come out with their target prices, what's the timetable usually for that price to strike?

[philfree]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Not to be a total dick, but if you know that little about the industry, why in the world would you invest in it?

I dont' know any more than you do, which tells me I shouldn't go there unless I was investing in a PERSON(S) that I totally trusted and thought was very smart, so we could BOTH make money.

It's just something I have always considered doing. Wondered if I could make any money doing it. And just because I don't know something today doesn't mean I can't learn about it and then know it. Kind of like any business. Definitely need to be dealing with trust worthy people. I'm pretty sure gahk99 is just wanting to rustle my cattle though so I better watch out for him.

It's not like I'd bet the farm on it. It would also be easy for me to just park all my money in the market but I thought I'd think outside the box for different investments. I'm thinking about buying some rental properties too but I don't know everything about that either so maybe I should just go ahead and punt.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by wutamess

When these analysts come out with their target prices, what's the timetable usually for that price to strike?

Speculation is speculation and shouldn't be considered much past that. Don't base your selling price off predictions but what the market/industry is telling you. Based on past trends, this should go north of $40 (this is my speculation!).

I got in at $21 and have no plans to sell anytime soon. It seemed like a great buy knowing the president and the US steel industry continues to ramp up production to keep pace with China.

I don't see this as a strict long term stock in my definition, but "long term" is different for many investors. It's a very cyclical/volatile industry and I would have no problems selling ALL stock of it near $50 and not buying again until it went lower.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by wutamess

When these analysts come out with their target prices, what's the timetable usually for that price to strike?

47 years

[Cornstock]

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

Vanguard is what I have now. I already put in 70 dollars and I haven't recieved my trophy wife yet.

Good choice with Vanguard. Start by using that as a savings account, adding like $25 per paycheck, more if you can afford it. Every time you get to around $200-500 buy something like VUG or a similar fund.

Be patient and watch it slowly grow. It's not about timing the market, its about time IN the market. You're in it for the long haul.

[Demonpenz]

Originally Posted by Cornstock

Good choice with Vanguard. Start by using that as a savings account, adding like $25 per paycheck, more if you can afford it. Every time you get to around $200-500 buy something like VUG or a similar fund.

Be patient and watch it slowly grow. It's not about timing the market, its about time IN the market. You're in it for the long haul.

I know it is a pain but people need to screen shot the eft's to meI don't know what a vug is

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by philfree

It's just something I have always considered doing. Wondered if I could make any money doing it. And just because I don't know something today doesn't mean I can't learn about it and then know it. Kind of like any business. Definitely need to be dealing with trust worthy people. I'm pretty sure gahk99 is just wanting to rustle my cattle though so I better watch out for him.

It's not like I'd bet the farm on it. It would also be easy for me to just park all my money in the market but I thought I'd think outside the box for different investments. I'm thinking about buying some rental properties too but I don't know everything about that either so maybe I should just go ahead and punt.

Right. Most people don't know what stocks are in the funds in their 401K much less PE ratios, dividends, returns, fees, whatever. And yet people still invest in it.

It's pretty easy to get into cows. All the lots around here are typically customer owned. Most of them will get the cows bought for you and then feed them out for you. It's pretty common.

But it carries some risk. There are opportunities for HUGE losses. A few years ago, I hauled some corn into a feedlot and asked the ops manager how things were going. He said, "Well, our guys went from losing $500/head to $300/head and they think that is pretty alright." And this is like a 35,000 head lot



All I could think to say was they have a different banker than I have.

There are different things you can do to minimize the risk. You can hedge on the board corn, feeders and fats. That way your only risk is death loss or degraded gain rates. Typically there is little to no profit to be had by hedging all of your components. Like I said, a month ago you could hedge in a profit, but it won't be the giant ass gains that you always hear about.

Like I said before, I wouldn't do it with any money you ever intend to see again, but there can be money made with them.

All that being said, I've never done it. Dad has a few times, but I have not.
If you want the number to any local feedlots, let me know. I can get you guys that know what the hell they're doing and can explain the process better than I can. Or you can talk to ghak and buy a couple head to get your feet wet. But understand that there can be massive losses.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Right. Most people don't know what stocks are in the funds in their 401K much less PE ratios, dividends, returns, fees, whatever. And yet people still invest in it.

It's pretty easy to get into cows. All the lots around here are typically customer owned. Most of them will get the cows bought for you and then feed them out for you. It's pretty common.

But it carries some risk. There are opportunities for HUGE losses. A few years ago, I hauled some corn into a feedlot and asked the ops manager how things were going. He said, "Well, our guys went from losing $500/head to $300/head and they think that is pretty alright." And this is like a 35,000 head lot



All I could think to say was they have a different banker than I have.

There are different things you can do to minimize the risk. You can hedge on the board corn, feeders and fats. That way your only risk is death loss or degraded gain rates. Typically there is little to no profit to be had by hedging all of your components. Like I said, a month ago you could hedge in a profit, but it won't be the giant ass gains that you always hear about.

Like I said before, I wouldn't do it with any money you ever intend to see again, but there can be money made with them.

All that being said, I've never done it. Dad has a few times, but I have not.
If you want the number to any local feedlots, let me know. I can get you guys that know what the hell they're doing and can explain the process better than I can. Or you can talk to ghak and buy a couple head to get your feet wet. But understand that there can be massive losses.

That's pretty informative. Thanks. I know that farmers can insure their crop in case they lose it. The hunting guide up S. Dakota where we used to hunt was glade when he lost his crop and the insurance paid. Said he didn't have to do near as much work. Is there insurance for cows?

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by philfree

It's just something I have always considered doing. Wondered if I could make any money doing it. And just because I don't know something today doesn't mean I can't learn about it and then know it. Kind of like any business. Definitely need to be dealing with trust worthy people. I'm pretty sure gahk99 is just wanting to rustle my cattle though so I better watch out for him.

It's not like I'd bet the farm on it. It would also be easy for me to just park all my money in the market but I thought I'd think outside the box for different investments. I'm thinking about buying some rental properties too but I don't know everything about that either so maybe I should just go ahead and punt.

Definitely agree that thinking outside the box isn't bad, and that if you learn about it in advance, then it's fine to go that route with "not betting the house" type money.

But I would definitely get educated about something before putting any money into it, unless again, you're investing in people that you seriously know/like/trust/respect.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by philfree

That's pretty informative. Thanks. I know that farmers can insure their crop in case they lose it. The hunting guide up S. Dakota where we used to hunt was glade when he lost his crop and the insurance paid. Said he didn't have to do near as much work. Is there insurance for cows?

Call "Farmers Insurance". They've seen a thing or two.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by philfree

That's pretty informative. Thanks. I know that farmers can insure their crop in case they lose it. The hunting guide up S. Dakota where we used to hunt was glade when he lost his crop and the insurance paid. Said he didn't have to do near as much work. Is there insurance for cows?

Not that I'm aware of. Nobody I know carries a policy. In a feedlot Death loss is typically not very high. Giant Snowstorms sometimes cause trouble and one small yard had some epidemic go through, other than that it is out of state cattle coming in extreme weather that kills cows: Southern cows coming in a cold snap or northern cows coming when it is hot. After a few days they get used to it, so the risk is fairly low. Some critters get BRD and just don't make it, but I'd bet over the long term you'd be money ahead to not try and insure anything.

What farmers have is multiperil crop insurance and essentially what that is insuring a revenue stream from a planted crop based on prior production. It's pretty easy to do actuarial stuff with yield. It is far more difficult to insure against death loss. It would probably have to be on each individual animal like a vehicle or something, and that would be problematic.

There is some money available in the USDA budget for Livestock disaster programs, but I don't know much about them and I have no idea how they would pay on a custom feeding job.

ghak is probably better suited to answer most of this than I am.

[Cornstock]

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

I know it is a pain but people need to screen shot the eft's to meI don't know what a vug is

No worries mate, VUG is the "ticker symbol" (quick abbreviation) for the name of a fund offered by vanguard.

While you're still learning the lingo I'll keep explaining things, let us know if something is unclear, there are no dumb questions when it comes to investing.