*****The Patrick Mahomes Thread*****

[Dante84]

IT ****ING HAPPENED



OP UPDATE:

Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy!

[Kiimo]

Well on tape I see a lot of finding someone wide freaking open and chucking it to him. What I don't see are a lot of timing throws, out patterns that require a lot of velocity, check downs through progressions and firing into tight windows. You know, pro throws. These look a lot like college throws to me.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

Well on tape I see a lot of finding someone wide freaking open and chucking it to him.

What's he suppose to do, NOT throw to open receivers?

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

What I don't see are a lot of timing throws, out patterns that require a lot of velocity, check downs through progressions and firing into tight windows.

Then you're not even trying. The video i posted had plenty of tight window, NFL throws.

Look, im not trying to project his career arch. Im acknowledging the only thing i can acknowledge: He had a promising rookie season. Better than what most of us on CP expected.

I too once espoused the idea that he was a noodle arm, 50/50 QB. Upon actually paying attention to him beyond the Chiefs game i've rescinded that position.

[Shag]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

"Chuck it up" is a relative term. Clearly. As you have yet to really define what that means. Going through Watson's highlights, i didn't find much "chucking up 50/50's" so much as giving his receiver a chance to make a play.

The only play i saw that i would consider a true "chuck it up" came against KC with 20sec on the clock...which is hardly anything worth considering taking into account the circumstances.

I posted two examples from the KC game alone. Chuck it downfield into the middle of a bunch of defenders, and pray something good happens. If that's "giving his receiver a chance", then there's no such thing as a bad pass - those decisions were terrible.

[Shag]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Im aware of the 49mph figure.

It seems to mean nothing when live action starts though. His arm passes the test. He's proven, in the NFL, that he can deliver the ball with enough velocity to beat defenders. WE have tape of it. You going to argue with the tape? You can't.

My bad - didn't realize we could write the book after 7 games. RGIII says hello.

I've said it before - I'm not claiming the guy is going to fail due to a weak arm, just that it could be problematic. I'm certainly not going to crown the kid after 7 games, though. 4/5 of his good games were against terrible pass defenses, as well.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Shag

My bad - didn't realize we could write the book after 7 games. RGIII says hello.

I've said it before - I'm not claiming the guy is going to fail due to a weak arm, just that it could be problematic. I'm certainly not going to crown the kid after 7 games, though.

Who's crowning anyone? Or writing a book?

The only people who seem to have written a book on him are his detractors.

Do you have evidence that backs up your claims? You say his arm "could be problematic", yet we have ample evidence to the contrary.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Shaid

I don't have a problem with that pass, it's one he should take. The next one is closer to 50/50 but you have Deandre Hopkins against our pathetic secondary so I'd take those odds any day. The one at 6:30 is much more a jump ball. I don't know, maybe him having Hopkins and Fuller(especially Hopkins) makes me look at him like he just has some great talent around him. The same will be the case this year with Mahomes though. I just feel like Hopkins is maybe the best player in the league to toss those jump balls to but maybe he just knows it too and takes advantage of it.

The two throws after the throw @ 5:20 are awful examples.

The third throw was basically a last ditch Hail Marry. You're going to hold that against him now? Throws like that mean nothing. Yes, that is a "50/50" ball in a last gasp situation.

The throw right after the "5:20" throw was a little late (He's a ****ing rookie, timing is expected to develop), but it got there.

If anything, that throw shits all over your "inadequate arm" argument, as he zipped in a deep pass despite being late.

You're basing your arguments around throws that went for TD's

Right now, you sound like a Mahomes detractor. "Sure it's a TD, but did you see his MECHANICS?!"

All that matters is the end result.

[Shag]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Who's crowning anyone? Or writing a book?

The only people who seem to have written a book on him are his detractors.

Do you have evidence that backs up your claims? You say his arm "could be problematic", yet we have ample evidence to the contrary.

Prove to me that it won't be, since you're interested in ridiculous requests. We all know there are a ton of factors that will determine a QBs success or failure. We do know that 49MPH is extremely low for an NFL QB, where defenders are extremely fast, and windows are small and close fast. The margin of error for a QB throwing 49MPH is smaller than one throwing 60MPH. Wind is a bigger factor. It's simple logic.

7 games is ample evidence? Against sub-par passing defenses?

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Shag

Prove to me that it won't be, since you're interested in ridiculous requests.

I'm not the one who thinks his arm is a problem. You are. So you prove it. I can turn on his highlights and see throws made with ample velocity. Apparently you can't. As far as i am concerned, Watson has already proved it for me.

Originally Posted by Shag

We do know that 49MPH is extremely low for an NFL QB, where defenders are extremely fast, and windows are small and close fast. The margin of error for a QB throwing 49MPH is smaller than one throwing 60MPH. Wind is a bigger factor. It's simple logic.

Your entire argument is based on that 49MPH figure pre-draft. Yes, that was an outstanding figure when it was released. But that has not played out in the NFL. Pre-draft, with that figure, i was saying the same damn thing you were. But then live games happened.

Instead of clinging onto that figure, how about using your eyes? When the lights come on and he has to throw, his arm looks nowhere near as weak as that 49mph figure suggests. It seems like you're all caught up with those digits.

[Shag]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

I'm not the one who thinks his arm is a problem. You are. So you prove it. I can turn on his highlights and see throws made with ample velocity. Apparently you can't. As far as i am concerned, Watson has already proved it for me.

Weren't you just saying the only people who had written the book were Watson detractors?

Your entire argument is based on that 49MPH figure pre-draft. Yes, that was an outstanding figure when it was released. But that has not played out in the NFL. Pre-draft, with that figure, i was saying the same damn thing you were. But then live games happened.

Instead of clinging onto that figure, how about using your eyes? When the lights come on and he has to throw, his arm looks nowhere near as weak as that 49mph figure suggests. It seems like you're all caught up with those digits.

So, the 49MPH number is false? Bad gun at the combine? Watson has a weak arm, and it could be problematic, for obvious reasons. He's played 7 games, and outside of Seattle, his only successes are against terrible pass defenses (ranked 19, 25, 29, 30).

I've said it before, but I guess I'll say it again - I don't know, nor particularly care, if Watson succeeds or fails. He'll have to overcome a weak arm to do so, but the guy has a history of success, and very well may pull it off. I'm certainly not going to claim he has already, after only 7 games.

Have fun on your crusade.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Shag

Weren't you just saying the only people who had written the book were Watson detractors?

Do you understand what an example is? He has SHOWN that he can deliver a pass with velocity. That means that, yes, he has in fact delivered NFL passes with velocity. By deduction, that means he has an arm capable of delivering passes with velocity. This isn't hard.

Originally Posted by Shag

So, the 49MPH number is false?

I have no idea. All i know is that he took the field, he wasn't throwing softball wobble launchers. His arm didn't look the least bit inadequate. Again, you have NOTHING outside of that pre-draft figure that indicates he has a weak arm. Nothing.

Time after time i've asked you to post an example, and you have yet to do it.

Originally Posted by Shag

I'm certainly not going to claim he has already, after only 7 games.

Literally no one has said that. Are you arguing with yourself now or just making shit up?

Your entire argument is based on "49mph". That's it. It's like you can't even use your eyes to see that that number holds no merit on the field.

You once read "49mph" and that was it for you. Clearly.

[ToxSocks]

I thought he had a weak arm coming into the league too. Sure, "49mph" was part of it. Mostly i though he had a weak arm because his deep ball was garbage. Looked like he was just chuckin' it.

Then he came into the NFL. And he didn't look the way i thought he'd look. I was probably wrong. He showed me better than what i expected.

Good for him. It's ok to be wrong.

[Kiimo]

Enough! I tweeted Seth Keysor to dig into Watson's tape to settle this.

[Kiimo]

@RealMNchiefsfan: Watson made some incredible plays and flashed a ton of potential. He also made some really stupid throws and got lucky on them. We'll see, I think he could be exceptional but am not ready to crown him quite yet.

Everybody's right!

[RealSNR]

RealSNR agrees with RealMNChiefsfan!

[Perineum Ripper]

This is the article by Seth Keysor over on that website. Hopefully it all works and everyone enjoys it. If something doesn't work, let me know, and I will try to fix it



Beyond the Arm: Patrick Mahomes’ strong eye level and pocket presence could be the real key to his success

Whenever people talk about Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, there’s always one thing that comes up first: THE ARM. Whether it’s calling him a gunslinger, referencing his cannon or using some version of the phrases “can throw from any platform” and “frozen rope,” Mahomes’ arm is at the forefront of every discussion about him. In his junior season at Texas Tech in 2016, Mahomes tied the NCAA mark for passing yards in a game with 734, and finished the season with 5,052 yards and 41 touchdowns.

The general narrative you hear is that he’s a kid with a rocket arm who makes all the throws, but little else is said. In fact, the rest of his game is routinely questioned, so that one could easily walk away from a conversation about Mahomes believing he’s all arm and nothing else.

I’m here to correct that narrative, as well as hopefully change the way you value various quarterback traits. Welcome to the “Beyond the Arm” series, in which I’ll be discussing aspects of Mahomes’ game that have been largely ignored.

Today, our focus will be on two of the most critical components of a quarterback’s success: eye level and pocket presence. The two must be discussed together because they are inextricably intertwined on every snap.

You’ve undoubtedly heard those terms before, but perhaps didn’t really think them through. “Eye level” is where the quarterback is looking during a passing play. Are his eyes “up” and watching the receivers and coverage? Or are his eyes “down,” looking at the pass rush and potential running lanes?

Pocket presence is closely related to eye level. It is the ability of the quarterback to move his feet away from pressure, into the clean areas of the pocket (or even outside the pocket) while continuing to keep his eyes up. You’ll often hear about a quarterback’s ability to feel pressure, which is referring to the same trait. You don’t have to be a mobile quarterback to possess this ability, as you can see after watching Tom Brady for even a few plays.

These are two of the most important traits an NFL quarterback can possess, and they often separate average quarterbacks from great ones. Mahomes, who was drafted by the Chiefs with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft, has both in spades. Watch his eyes in this clip:



This play was widely circulated following the Chiefs’ 30-12 preseason win over the Bengals last August, and for good reason. It’s an impressive play. However, when discussing it, most people focus on Mahomes fending off the free rusher and his ability to fire the ball with velocity, despite being on the run and off-balance.

By doing so, they miss a critical component of the play. Watch Mahomes’ eye level. Note that the moment he turns, following play action, he has a defender in his face. Despite that, he almost immediately turns his eyes away from said defender and looks up the field. He maintains that eye level on the run (try running sideways without looking sometime), and that is why he’s able to spot his tight end coming open against man coverage with the safety too deep to crash down in time.

Yes, the throw was great. But it never happens if Mahomes doesn’t maintain proper eye level.

The importance of eye level can only be completely understood when you see what happens when quarterbacks fail to keep their eyes down the field. Fair warning, you’re not going to enjoy the next two clips, but they are essential to seeing the importance of this issue.



Keep in mind I’m not picking on Alex Smith, who had a very good 2017 with the Chiefs and who spent five seasons as Kansas City’s starter before being traded to the Redskins in January. However, it must be noted that eye level and pocket presence were two of the issues Smith struggled with, even during his career-best performance last season.

You can see that Smith looks at his first read, and then on his way to his second read, drops his eye level to the pass rush. Even though there’s no pressure, he feels the need to scramble. This is often the result when a quarterback drops his eyes. Even a relatively calm pocket is still chaotic in the NFL, and offensive linemen are usually just a few seconds from losing protection. If a quarterback allows himself to look at all of that, panic is nearly inevitable. That’s the first problem with dropping your eyes.

The second is simple: You can’t look at two things at once. There’s a reason texting and driving is illegal. When you’re looking at the phone, you cannot focus on the road. The human eye doesn’t allow it. Similarly, when a quarterback is looking at the rush in front of him, he cannot focus on his receivers. Here’s the above play from an all-22 view.



The Titans ran fairly effective man coverage with two deep safeties on this play. Because of that specific coverage and the matchups involved, Smith did end up with two receivers as options on the play, once his first read (to his right) was covered. Tyreek Hill’s defender couldn’t quite keep up with him, and the safety was a bit too deep to drive on a well-placed throw. That’s a first down. In the meantime, Kareem Hunt’s defender played too far off and a ball on his body would be a modest gain with the chance of Hunt winning 1×1 in space for a first down.

Of course, neither happened. Instead, Smith dropped his eyes and scrambled from imaginary pressure, a direct result of poor eye level. Compare that to this play:



Here, Mahomes faces pressure from an unblocked blitzer. Watch Mahomes’ eyes (well, the back of his helmet, but you get the idea). He sees the blitzer coming, but keeps looking at his receivers and the coverage. His eventual target, Albert Wilson, isn’t open immediately. Had Mahomes dropped his eyes he never would have seen Wilson get open. This is an uncommon snap not just due to the strength Mahomes showed (both his lower body and his arm), but because of his uncanny ability to keep his eyes up.

If you watch Mahomes’ snaps during his three seasons at Texas Tech, during the 2017 NFL preseason and in his lone regular season start, a 27-24 win over the Broncos on Dec. 31, you’ll see that Mahomes almost never drops his eyes from down the field. If you get a chance, watch some of his snaps and then compare him to other quarterbacks in the league. In this specific area, Mahomes is already ahead of many of his peers.

That unique ability to maintain proper eye level is made possible because of Mahomes’ ability to feel pressure in the pocket without necessarily focusing on the rushers.



Here, Mahomes must turn his back to the defense to perform a play-action fake. This is a risky move for a quarterback, as you can’t know for certain what you’ll see when you turn around. In this case, Mahomes has an edge rusher crashing inside on the left tackle, who does a decent job but gives up some ground into the pocket. This creates a bit of chaos. Additionally, a blitzing secondary player gains the edge on Anthony Sherman. This creates a bit more chaos.

Watch Mahomes’ first move after reaching the top of his drop. He bounces to the left without even looking at the edge rusher creating issues within the pocket. This places his lineman between him and the defender and buys an extra second or two. Then, all while keeping his eyes down the field, Mahomes moves forward to avoid the blitzing secondary player and the edge rusher, who has recovered from Erving’s shove, and calmly delivers a strike to Wilson.

This was another instance where people focused on the “gunslinger” aspect of the play, which is Mahomes’ ability to throw with velocity despite not setting his shoulders (the “no look throw”). And yes, that’s crazy to watch because it’s so rare. However, much like the snaps discussed above, the incredible doesn’t occur if Mahomes doesn’t display the pocket presence to calmly navigate a little chaos.

So what does poor pocket presence look like? Basically, the opposite.



I chose this snap of Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer because he does a decent job keeping his eyes down the field, so it provides an opportunity to differentiate between eye level and pocket presence. What I want you to notice is the effect Kizer’s movement has on his blockers, in particular his left tackle and running back. As Kizer drops back and surveys the field, note that both are between him and the rusher, exactly where you want them to be.

Kizer then decides to drift left. The farther left he moves, the less his blockers are between him and the defender. Rather than correcting this mistake and moving right again, where there’s plenty of clean pocket to occupy, Kizer begins running left. All this does is completely remove his blockers from the equation. Think of it in terms of a “clean shot” in target practice (or pool, I suppose). There were barriers between him and the defender, but by moving to his left he gave the defender a clean shot.

For comparison’s sake, here’s one more Mahomes snap.



Compare the movement in the pocket between the two plays. Mahomes moves in such a way to buy space between himself and the defenders and to put his blockers back between him and the rushers. It’s crucial to have both. Buying yourself a yard of space means nothing if you’re removing the barrier between you and the defender. In fact, you’re doing him a favor. Pocket presence isn’t just about where you do go. It’s where you don’t go. And Mahomes doesn’t move any more than necessary before staying put in a spot that’s free of pressure.

Pocket presence is an art form, and very few quarterbacks in the NFL are consistently good in this area. I would argue it’s the least common elite trait at the position, far less common than a great arm. And Mahomes, in limited action, has consistently demonstrated superior pocket presence despite being consistently under pressure. The general rule is that the more pressure a quarterback faces, the worse his pocket presence gets (“happy feet”). Mahomes, in contrast to that rule, has moved well in the pocket when there’s been anything to work with.

Make no mistake, Mahomes is not perfect with his eye level and pocket presence. However, the fact that he was showing these traits on a consistent basis as a rookie is significantly more important than his arm strength. These two complementary traits, not the “cannon,” are the main reason I don’t anticipate a step backward for the Chiefs’ offense in 2018.