Call Your Shot: Who will be the Chiefs first pick in the 2025 NFL draft?

[staylor26]

I'm going with Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio St.

I think the Chiefs would prefer a guy like Walter Nolen or Derrick Harmon falls into their lap, but I don't think that happens next Thursday night, or at least I'm not going to get me hopes up.

A lot of people will not like this pick, due to the injury risk, but the Chiefs take a swing at a T that otherwise would never be in that late 1st round range.

Side note: I could also see Josh Conerly being the pick and could've just as easily chose him. Upside isn't as high, but he's probably safer given his health.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I have to cover two scenarios:

If they trade up: Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon.
All the talk after the trade is about Josh Simmons, just like all the talk after the trade to 10 was about DeShaun Watson. And then the Chiefs take a future Hall of Fame player instead.

If they stay put: I'll go with Josh Conerly, OT, Oregon.

I have absolutely 0.0 percent desire to see them waste the pick on Josh Simmons. Every data point we have - like legitimately, every single godsdamned one of them - tells us that guy is NEVER going to be the same player again. Literally no one has had the patellar injury and returned to be as good physically as they were before. NFL, NBA, it doesn't matter. The knee is never the same again.

Let a loser franchise throw their pick away. Certainly don't trade up for the right to throw away yours on this guy.

If he didn’t have the injury what would you think? Bc my God his size, strength, foot quickness and hand usage is really good. His footwork and hands make Wanya and Kingsley look like a ****ing practice squad player. He’s really ****ing good as a prospect. He’s a good tackle prospect minus the injury. That’s not really debatable.

It’s literally the injury and character concerns, which they may know more than we could think to know. We know Burkholder put him under a microscope so if he clears him, I think they’ll take him if possible. The character concerns are accepted by this franchise. I’d imagine they trust the leadership of the locker room to take him.

I will say this: there’s a big difference between a Tackle and a skill position or DB player. He’s not cutting, running 40+ yards downfield or running the same. 90% of his job is within 10 yards.

Also wonder if medical advances were done on him? Suture anchors are the new thing that Aaron Rodgers had done on his Achilles which greatly helps recovery and prevention of re-injury. I read that that is used for this tendon surgery as well. That might be the case bc **** me that guy looked loose at his pro day. Dude was moving after 5 months post-op and it was nuts.

Listen fellas. If Burkholder clears this kid and Andy Reid feels like he’s his guy, you ****ing do it. I trust Andy here. There is no better draft to do this if our staff really believes in a tackle.

I do not believe in Jaylon Moore long term. Neither do the Chiefs based upon his contract. Josh Simmons scares me. I’ve made no changes in that regard, but if they take him I’d imagine they did an incredible amount of due diligence on him. I’d trust them if they went this way.

They’ve earned that trust.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I disagree. He was noticeably less explosive. I owned him in a dynasty FF league that year. His jumping ability was not the same, his speed took a step back, and he just wasn't as explosive. The numbers were good but he wasn't the same player. (And his high YPC was a function of being in a run-based, play-action offense).

Sorry man, but I jsut think you're seeing what you want to see. We can agree to disagree but here's a video for anybody that would like to see 2016 Jimmy Graham:

https://youtu.be/DKrRdgFOVmQ?si=vSZdbXb5SX5lu9uR

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Sorry man, but I jsut think you're seeing what you want to see. We can agree to disagree but here's a video for anybody that would like to see 2016 Jimmy Graham:

https://youtu.be/DKrRdgFOVmQ?si=vSZdbXb5SX5lu9uR

We can agree to disagree. He didn't get up and high point the ball the same way (even in that highlight clip, he is not dominating by getting ABOVE guys the way he did before the injury. Size and ball placement), he didn't run away from LB like he did before the injury.

And even if he WAS the same in 2016 as he was before the injury... (1) That's the best example you can find and (2) it was short-lived.

Originally Posted by RunKC

If he didn’t have the injury what would you think? Bc my God his size, strength, foot quickness and hand usage is really good. His footwork and hands make Wanya and Kingsley look like a ****ing practice squad player. He’s really ****ing good as a prospect. He’s a good tackle prospect minus the injury. That’s not really debatable.

It’s literally the injury and character concerns, which they may know more than we could think to know. We know Burkholder put him under a microscope so if he clears him, I think they’ll take him if possible. The character concerns are accepted by this franchise. I’d imagine they trust the leadership of the locker room to take him.

I will say this: there’s a big difference between a Tackle and a skill position or DB player. He’s not cutting, running 40+ yards downfield or running the same. 90% of his job is within 10 yards.

Also wonder if medical advances were done on him? Suture anchors are the new thing that Aaron Rodgers had done on his Achilles which greatly helps recovery and prevention of re-injury. I read that that is used for this tendon surgery as well. That might be the case bc **** me that guy looked loose at his pro day. Dude was moving after 5 months post-op and it was nuts.

Listen fellas. If Burkholder clears this kid and Andy Reid feels like he’s his guy, you ****ing do it. I trust Andy here. There is no better draft to do this if our staff really believes in a tackle.

I do not believe in Jaylon Moore long term. Neither do the Chiefs based upon his contract. Josh Simmons scares me. I’ve made no changes in that regard, but if they take him I’d imagine they did an incredible amount of due diligence on him. I’d trust them if they went this way.

They’ve earned that trust.

But he did have the injury. Cannot get away from or around that.

OL knee strength, flexibility, and soundness is still super important to what they do. No, he isn't cutting 40 yards downfield. He's just anchoring and redirecting and fighting for leverage and balance constantly, with combined weights of 600 pounds usually at odds.

If the team takes him, I'll be hopeful that they're right and he's the unicorn, and not LeCharles Bentley or Jack Conklin or JC Jackson or Jarod Mayo or Victor Cruz or Ryan Williams or Cadillac Williams or Lucas Niang or or Andre Roberson or Jeremy Lin or Victor Oladipo or any of the other dudes who were never the same again.

I don't care about past tense with him. Sure, before the injury, he had all the things you reference and was a superior player and prospect to Morris and Suamataiea. But we don't know that he still is (and running around in shorts and a t-shirt in workouts isn't going to prove that he still is, either).

[Toad]

Kinda thinking they will select K Grant

[Woogieman]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I don't know which LT you're talking about but all the combine measurements were wrong.

Conerly and Simmons both have 34" arm length.

I hear there were some discrepancies, but not that much. I guess those dudes just made several millions more dollars.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Woogieman

I hear there were some discrepancies, but not that much. I guess those dudes just made several millions more dollars.

Yea, it was an outlier year in terms of those discrepancies, and the only logical explanation is whoever measured at the combine ****ed up royally.

[Semichief]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

We can agree to disagree. He didn't get up and high point the ball the same way (even in that highlight clip, he is not dominating by getting ABOVE guys the way he did before the injury. Size and ball placement), he didn't run away from LB like he did before the injury.

And even if he WAS the same in 2016 as he was before the injury... (1) That's the best example you can find and (2) it was short-lived.



But he did have the injury. Cannot get away from or around that.

OL knee strength, flexibility, and soundness is still super important to what they do. No, he isn't cutting 40 yards downfield. He's just anchoring and redirecting and fighting for leverage and balance constantly, with combined weights of 600 pounds usually at odds.

If the team takes him, I'll be hopeful that they're right and he's the unicorn, and not LeCharles Bentley or Jack Conklin or JC Jackson or Jarod Mayo or Victor Cruz or Ryan Williams or Cadillac Williams or Lucas Niang or or Andre Roberson or Jeremy Lin or Victor Oladipo or any of the other dudes who were never the same again.

I don't care about past tense with him. Sure, before the injury, he had all the things you reference and was a superior player and prospect to Morris and Suamataiea. But we don't know that he still is (and running around in shorts and a t-shirt in workouts isn't going to prove that he still is, either).

Here's a research study on patellar injuries[/URL]. Not good news - of the 16 OL who've had the injury over the past 15 years, only 2 made it back to the same level. That makes it VERY risky. I'm sure there have been advances in medicine, but it seems like an awful lot to gamble on.

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11806464

Bear in mind, there are a lot of other teams in front of us who would love a high ceiling tackle. If he's available to us, it means their medical staff didn't feel good enough to take him with what would be a value pick for them too.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by RunKC

If he didn’t have the injury what would you think? Bc my God his size, strength, foot quickness and hand usage is really good. His footwork and hands make Wanya and Kingsley look like a ****ing practice squad player. He’s really ****ing good as a prospect. He’s a good tackle prospect minus the injury. That’s not really debatable.

It’s literally the injury and character concerns, which they may know more than we could think to know. We know Burkholder put him under a microscope so if he clears him, I think they’ll take him if possible. The character concerns are accepted by this franchise. I’d imagine they trust the leadership of the locker room to take him.

I will say this: there’s a big difference between a Tackle and a skill position or DB player. He’s not cutting, running 40+ yards downfield or running the same. 90% of his job is within 10 yards.

Also wonder if medical advances were done on him? Suture anchors are the new thing that Aaron Rodgers had done on his Achilles which greatly helps recovery and prevention of re-injury. I read that that is used for this tendon surgery as well. That might be the case bc **** me that guy looked loose at his pro day. Dude was moving after 5 months post-op and it was nuts.

Listen fellas. If Burkholder clears this kid and Andy Reid feels like he’s his guy, you ****ing do it. I trust Andy here. There is no better draft to do this if our staff really believes in a tackle.

I do not believe in Jaylon Moore long term. Neither do the Chiefs based upon his contract. Josh Simmons scares me. I’ve made no changes in that regard, but if they take him I’d imagine they did an incredible amount of due diligence on him. I’d trust them if they went this way.

They’ve earned that trust.

Yeah, I don't have the ability to know the medical. If the Chiefs clear him I would be excited because he has Pro Bowl LT ability.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I don't know when I would make the gamble personally, because I don't have enough information to determine that. I am 100% giving the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt whatever they chose.

It just blows my mind that people can see how cautious the FO and the league in general is with this stuff and still not trust them if it's what THEY decide to do.

They waited until day 3 to pull the trigger on Trey Smith, and you just know they had to feel pretty good about it just to take him with a measly late pick. I don't think they'd would waste a 1st round pick on a guy they don't feel extremky confident about.

They might, though.

Look, I love this front office/coaching staff as much as the next guy, but the reason I'm a huge fan of them is that I recognize they're capable of making mistakes, and that's okay because the entire game of NFL personnel management involves making mistakes from time to time. When I "put my trust" in them it's because I recognize that they can do a better job than all but a small handful of other NFL front offices in team construction, and the results over the years certainly show that.

If the Chiefs took Simmons, and you hooked Veach up to a lie detector and asked him if he was extremely confident Simmons could play up to the potential he had before the injury, I don't think he would say yes. I think he would give an answer like, "our training staff told me he's fully recovered, but we won't know what that looks like until he's in pads hitting people." In which case, the Simmons pick would be an additional roll of the dice beyond the scouting component you do in these kinds of situations.

The Chiefs need a LT. And I recognize I can sit here as a fan and say it's too risky to take Simmons, but that's a luxury Veach doesn't have. That was the position he's been put in the past two seasons. It was survivable with Donovan Smith for the most part, and last year it wasn't. In both years because the FA market didn't present him with a good option to effectively solve the crisis, he was left with being cornered into assessing risk, and he determined the risk wasn't worth it.

He might finally be in a position where he knows he can't keep biding his time and waiting for the solution to fall into his lap. He might be pressured to finally take that risk, unfortunately.

If he gives into that pressure and rolls the dice on Simmons, I'll sit there with my butthole nervously clenched for awhile and hope for the best.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

They might, though.

Look, I love this front office/coaching staff as much as the next guy, but the reason I'm a huge fan of them is that I recognize they're capable of making mistakes, and that's okay because the entire game of NFL personnel management involves making mistakes from time to time. When I "put my trust" in them it's because I recognize that they can do a better job than all but a small handful of other NFL front offices in team construction, and the results over the years certainly show that.

If the Chiefs took Simmons, and you hooked Veach up to a lie detector and asked him if he was extremely confident Simmons could play up to the potential he had before the injury, I don't think he would say yes. I think he would give an answer like, "our training staff told me he's fully recovered, but we won't know what that looks like until he's in pads hitting people." In which case, the Simmons pick would be an additional roll of the dice beyond the scouting component you do in these kinds of situations.

The Chiefs need a LT. And I recognize I can sit here as a fan and say it's too risky to take Simmons, but that's a luxury Veach doesn't have. That was the position he's been put in the past two seasons. It was survivable with Donovan Smith for the most part, and last year it wasn't. In both years because the FA market didn't present him with a good option to effectively solve the crisis, he was left with being cornered into assessing risk, and he determined the risk wasn't worth it.

He might finally be in a position where he knows he can't keep biding his time and waiting for the solution to fall into his lap. He might be pressured to finally take that risk, unfortunately.

If he gives into that pressure and rolls the dice on Simmons, I'll sit there with my butthole nervously clenched for awhile and hope for the best.

Veach had always said he defers to medical team on medical.


What you said contradicts every statement Veach had ever made on their medical staff.

[RunKC]

We all may not even have to think about Josh Simmons, and I may have to change my pick in light of new info.

The Arizona Cardinals hired Justin Frye as their OL coach. He was the Ohio State OL coach since 2022. He was literally Josh Simmons coach his entire time at Ohio State and they had a private visit with him, so the Cardinals probably know more about Simmons than anybody.

RT may be the biggest hole on their roster bc Jonah Williams is a dumpster fire who can barely play 8 games a year and they have literally nobody else.

I’d say odds are he goes there at 16.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by RunKC

We all may not even have to think about Josh Simmons, and I may have to change my pick in light of new info.

The Arizona Cardinals hired Justin Frye as their OL coach. He was the Ohio State OL coach since 2022. He was literally Josh Simmons coach his entire time at Ohio State and they had a private visit with him, so the Cardinals probably know more about Simmons than anybody.

RT may be the biggest hole on their roster bc Jonah Williams is a dumpster fire who can barely play 8 games a year and they have literally nobody else.

I’d say odds are he goes there at 16.

Ahh, see. There's the dumb franchise that you let keep doing the things that dumb franchises do.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Veach had always said he defers to medical team on medical.


What you said contradicts every statement Veach had ever made on their medical staff.

Then there's simply no way the Chiefs will take Simmons. 0%.

[staylor26]

Like I said in the OP, I think it could just as easily be Conerly.

Either way, my gut is telling it's one of those 2 Ts.

If it's not, it probably means Nolen, Harmon, or Grant.

I think TreVeyon Henderson is the darkhorse.

[493rd]

Jeremy Crawshaw I’m thinking