Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[neech]

Quality post Buehler, you make some good points.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by F150

crypto is getting millions of people conditioned to enter the commodities markets

LOL. Let them enter the grains. Maybe they will take their money instead of mine.

[lewdog]

What’s with AMC today?!?!?

[lewdog]

Nice day!

[neech]

Indeed it was a good day.

I noticed MNMD is going up the last hour of the day maybe the reddit gang is buying it.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I'm not saying I know anything, or really have much of an opinion. Really all I know there is a ****ton of volatility in my industry. However, there are definitely bearish counterpoints to bullish arguments.

Yeah, housing starts and jobs (horrible) had bad beats recently. GDP revisions down. The number of people reporting they couldn't work due to covid dropped from 3.7 million to 2.8. It seems like that's a good sign if it keeps up.

I don't know what'll happen with a lot of the supply/demand imbalances. Like Oil futures going sub-zero I'm sure we'll continue to see interesting stuff. They are a risk to stifling growth at too high of rates.

I guess I only see the economy beating for the next few quarters. I mean, the yoy comps are insanely low. Halfcan was implying a major economic correction. We're going to start doing worse than last year? I can't believe that, we're Jamaal Charles competing in the special olympics right now in yoy comps.

I believe in the US consumer spending. There is supposedly a ton of money trapped in checking/savings accounts. The direct monthly payments for child tax credits will start going out this summer. I can't imagine that won't get spent by a huge chunk of the population.

I find inflation to be the biggest concern. I drove home tonight listening to commercials of companies paying to advertise that they'd give $17 an hour to new entry level warehouse employees. This might be a bias, my worth is mostly in stocks, if the economy grows slower that hasn't worked so bad for me.. less so if inflation forces huge interest rate increases. 40x revs SaaS companies would freefall

[neech]

21 states are going to drop the unemployment pandemic assistance program just for the reason of getting people back to work when there are plenty of jobs out there. The gubment incentivizing people not to go back to work is what the problem is.

Excerpt from article:

"$387. That's how much the average American receives from their state in weekly unemployment payments, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which rises to $687 with the federal boost. Based on a 40-hour workweek, that means the average unemployed American is getting the equivalent of $17.17 an hour—more than twice the federal minimum wage."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nichola...h=3155fc4d7cee

[MTG#10]

Originally Posted by neech

21 states are going to drop the unemployment pandemic assistance program just for the reason of getting people back to work when there are plenty of jobs out there. The gubment incentivizing people not to go back to work is what the problem is.

Excerpt from article:

"$387. That's how much the average American receives from their state in weekly unemployment payments, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which rises to $687 with the federal boost. Based on a 40-hour workweek, that means the average unemployed American is getting the equivalent of $17.17 an hour—more than twice the federal minimum wage."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nichola...h=3155fc4d7cee

They waited way too long to do this but I'm glad its finally happening. We've raised starting pay at my work 25% and for this area we already paid very well but we still cant get anyone to fill our 5 open positions.

[neech]

Originally Posted by MTG#10

They waited way too long to do this but I'm glad its finally happening. We've raised starting pay at my work 25% and for this area we already paid very well but we still cant get anyone to fill our 5 open positions.

About June 12th applications should be picking up for your work.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by lewdog

What’s with AMC today?!?!?

It's preparing itself for the big squeeze.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

Yeah, housing starts and jobs (horrible) had bad beats recently. GDP revisions down. The number of people reporting they couldn't work due to covid dropped from 3.7 million to 2.8. It seems like that's a good sign if it keeps up.

I don't know what'll happen with a lot of the supply/demand imbalances. Like Oil futures going sub-zero I'm sure we'll continue to see interesting stuff. They are a risk to stifling growth at too high of rates.

I guess I only see the economy beating for the next few quarters. I mean, the yoy comps are insanely low. Halfcan was implying a major economic correction. We're going to start doing worse than last year? I can't believe that, we're Jamaal Charles competing in the special olympics right now in yoy comps.

I believe in the US consumer spending. There is supposedly a ton of money trapped in checking/savings accounts. The direct monthly payments for child tax credits will start going out this summer. I can't imagine that won't get spent by a huge chunk of the population.

I find inflation to be the biggest concern. I drove home tonight listening to commercials of companies paying to advertise that they'd give $17 an hour to new entry level warehouse employees. This might be a bias, my worth is mostly in stocks, if the economy grows slower that hasn't worked so bad for me.. less so if inflation forces huge interest rate increases. 40x revs SaaS companies would freefall

Yeah, the big key is interest rate risk. Last time the Fed suggested they might raise interest rates in a few quarters the stock market tanked. Hard. That's probably the most impactful for the discussions here.

Not that I'm disagreeing, but where are you reading that there is a lot of liquidity tied up in checking and savings accounts? My wife doesn't seem to have trouble finding places to dump my cash.

If the velocity of money were to improve that would definitely help.

The wild volatility in certain places, isn't good for anyone. That stifles a lot of healthy economic activity. FFS notorious told me plywood is more expensive than the oak he's laying down. What the holy hell? There has to be several houses that can't be built now. Surely a contractor or 500 that has went out of business on such madness. That shit needs to get un****ed post haste.

[BWillie]

How much money does one need to retire before 40? What's the number you guys are looking for to "retire" and how does it change based on age?

[philfree]

Originally Posted by BWillie

How much money does one need to retire before 40? What's the number you guys are looking for to "retire" and how does it change based on age?

https://money.usnews.com/money/retir...far-it-will-go

Becoming a millionaire seems like a surefire way to live comfortably. However, if you are no longer working, just how long will a million dollars last in retirement?

The answer is about 20 years, according to Brent Lipschultz, partner with accounting and advisory firm EisnerAmper in New York City. To come to that conclusion, Lipschultz used data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which shows those age 65 and older have average annual expenses of approximately $50,000. He also assumed inflation would be 2.9%, investments would earn 4% each year and a person's state and federal tax rates would be 30% combined.

"A million dollars seems like a lot, but in today's world, it's not a lot of money," Lipschultz notes. He calculates a retiree needs to save an additional $765,000 to fully fund a 35-year retirement.

However, these are average figures, and your personal situation

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by BWillie

How much money does one need to retire before 40? What's the number you guys are looking for to "retire" and how does it change based on age?

Man, that number would have to be big. It would have to be in the neighborhood of 100M in order to live off the returns in 40 years.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Man, that number would have to be big. It would have to be in the neighborhood of 100M in order to live off the returns in 40 years.

I think I could do it with 3M. Assuming I don't live past 70, which I wont.