Do you make money betting on sports?

[TLO]

Yes or no.
Feel free to elaborate.

[Chargem]

I gamble for fun on the NFL, and have been losing small amounts for years. This year, I am significantly up (about +250% on my starting bankroll for the season). I'm thinking its probably luck and it will revert over time.

While I think the vast majority of sports gamblers should be losers, I do suspect that there might be valid value betting opportunities in the NFL for someone prepared to do the work. The betting sites don't really care if a line is "accurate", they care if its close enough to accurate to collect roughly even size of bets in total on either side of an outcome so that they make a profit regardless of the actual outcome.

To me, it just feels like the handicap system is rife with opportunities to value bet, particularly at wider spreads.

[DanT]

I have a bachelor's degree in behavioral sciences and a PhD in mathematical statistics, and throughout my life, I had loved ones who gambled. I don't gamble because I know from my undergraduate training that exposing mammals to activities with random wins and losses can quickly lead to durable addiction and I know from probability theory that the house has it set up in their favor and, on top of that, they have more money than you so they could eventually take all of yours by keeping your addicted asses engaged, even if the bets were "fair", which they aren't.
To me it is not good that the sports leagues condone this destructive activity and that kids watching sports broadcasts are constantly reminded by gambling commercials and announcers giving gambling advice that they are growing up in an idiocracy.

[DanT]

There are slot machine addicts who wear diapers to the casino. That's what gambling does, get people to go sit in their own waste.

[KCrockaholic]

I’m up $1,200 on the year betting $5-$10 here and there. It’s fun to bet on games usually. I save the heavy stakes betting for Baccarat.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by DanT

There are slot machine addicts who wear diapers to the casino. That's what gambling does, get people to go sit in their own waste.

Gotta always be prepared for when you get on the heater. Can’t leave when the slot is gettin hot.

[SithCeNtZ]

Originally Posted by Chargem

I gamble for fun on the NFL, and have been losing small amounts for years. This year, I am significantly up (about +250% on my starting bankroll for the season). I'm thinking its probably luck and it will revert over time.

While I think the vast majority of sports gamblers should be losers, I do suspect that there might be valid value betting opportunities in the NFL for someone prepared to do the work. The betting sites don't really care if a line is "accurate", they care if its close enough to accurate to collect roughly even size of bets in total on either side of an outcome so that they make a profit regardless of the actual outcome.

To me, it just feels like the handicap system is rife with opportunities to value bet, particularly at wider spreads.

I work in analytics and am fortunate enough to have worked with gambling data and you are actually exactly right. The key is big bets on a small amount of games. I don’t care what model you think you’ve built, you aren’t going to find an edge on all 12 games in the NFL this weekend. One or two? It’s possible. But gambling companies know this which is why they want you to bet on all kinds of things with “bet boosts” and even parlays to some degree. This is why the casual gambler who throws “a few dollars on games throughout the day just to make it interesting” is almost certainly going to lose in the long run.

There is a short term exception to this which deals in biases, and you might even be an example of this. People who gamble are often extremely biased in how they bet which can lead to swings where they feel like a genius and an incredible gambler. An example is over/under bets. People generally LOVE to hammer one or the other, all the time. If you are consistent in doing that, there are going to be days/months/seasons where the over is just killing it for whatever reason, and you’ll make a fair profit. Inevitably that will reverse though and you’ll start to lose again. Most people you can put into different buckets and I can clearly explain to them that you are winning right now simply because home dogs and the home team over just happen to be doing well this year everywhere in the league but that’s also why you lost last year.

[DanT]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

Gotta always be prepared for when you get on the heater. Can’t leave when the slot is gettin hot.

[Womble]

I'm up on the slots this year but overall down because I only use the finest quality diapers which don't come cheap.

[COChiefs]

I bet when it was first legalized but ended up losing it all over a season. I was considering adding more but then I researched taxation of gambling winnings. Since most sports books are collecting SSNs I assume they are reporting large winnings to the IRS.

You have to itemize your taxes to deduct losses from winnings (I don't itemize). So there is potentially a large tax bill due - for all the winners out there.


irs.gov/taxtopics/tc419

Gambling losses
You may deduct gambling losses only if you itemize your deductions on Schedule A (Form 1040) and kept a record of your winnings and losses. The amount of losses you deduct can't be more than the amount of gambling income you reported on your return. Claim your gambling losses up to the amount of winnings, as "Other Itemized Deductions."

[wazu]

Originally Posted by COChiefs

I bet when it was first legalized but ended up losing it all over a season. I was considering adding more but then I researched taxation of gambling winnings. Since most sports books are collecting SSNs I assume they are reporting large winnings to the IRS.

You have to itemize your taxes to deduct losses from winnings (I don't itemize). So there is potentially a large tax bill due - for all the winners out there.


irs.gov/taxtopics/tc419

Gambling losses
You may deduct gambling losses only if you itemize your deductions on Schedule A (Form 1040) and kept a record of your winnings and losses. The amount of losses you deduct can't be more than the amount of gambling income you reported on your return. Claim your gambling losses up to the amount of winnings, as "Other Itemized Deductions."

Was going to open an account somewhere to do some occasional betting on sports now that it's legal in Missouri, but upon reading this it sounds less fun and more like a pain in the ass.

[DanT]

Laughable how many dopes on here claiming they win. They must be interpreting the question to refer to a day or days they won more than they bet. If so many people came out ahead overall, the gambling companies wouldn’t be giving suckers bonus bets and other introductory enticements to get the kindergarteners to take the heroin…uh, I mean to download their apps.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by wazu

Was going to open an account somewhere to do some occasional betting on sports now that it's legal in Missouri, but upon reading this it sounds less fun and more like a pain in the ass.

You'll probably lose and have to do nothing tax wise?

I have no idea if these sites offer some kind of annual report you can download with your wins/losses for tax purposes, but I would hope they do.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by DanT

Laughable how many dopes on here claiming they win. They must be interpreting the question to refer to a day or days they won more than they bet. If so many people came out ahead overall, the gambling companies wouldn’t be giving suckers bonus bets and other introductory enticements to get the kindergarteners to take the heroin…uh, I mean to download their apps.

Less than 25% of people on this site are claiming they win money betting on sports. Doesn't seem that laughable. I'm part of that group claiming this because the only betting I do is fantasy football, where I am in the playoffs the vast majority of years, and usually finishing in a spot where I win my money back or better, with championships far more than covering the years that I lose.

Now, this is all very low stakes. I'm sure if I joined the big money leagues where I don't get to dunk on casuals it would be different.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by wazu

Less than 25% of people on this site are claiming they win money betting on sports. Doesn't seem that laughable. I'm part of that group claiming this because the only betting I do is fantasy football, where I am in the playoffs the vast majority of years, and usually finishing in a spot where I win my money back or better, with championships far more than covering the years that I lose.

Now, this is all very low stakes. I'm sure if I joined the big money leagues where I don't get to dunk on casuals it would be different.

And there's probably not even a handful of comments from people saying they win significant money overall... most comments are in fact "up this year, but not overall".

Someone saying they're up $20k in the past year isn't crazy by any means either... you could hit one big winner for that amount in a year and break even the rest of the year (if not win $30k with one bet and be down $10k with everything else).

[teedubya]

I'm in Missouri... so only PrizePicks seems to work. I do good SOMETIMES... but mostly I get rekt... usually by ONE player prop anomaly.