2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop

Optimism running high, as it always does in February.

Ah, the reality of May.

Be Royal.

[gblowfish]

Check out this new billboard off I-35 in downtown KC:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater

[BlackHelicopters]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Ah, the reality of May.

Be Royal.

No way May repeats itself, can it? Please say no.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Check out this new billboard off I-35 in downtown KC:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater

That's pretty neat.

[DeezNutz]

Typical. Glass is too cheap to finish. Better get Jackson County to step up.

[BlackHelicopters]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Check out this new billboard off I-35 in downtown KC:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater

Pretty cool.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Just posted this on the Royals scout board, and too much research was involved to not share.

Background: Discussion of catching up to Detroit. Why do the Royals have a better shot than you might think?

This is the likely lineup:

Austin Jackson (career numbers show he is a .280/.340/.420 type leadoff guy... very similar to Aoki)
Ian Kinsler (Career .263/.317/.418 player away from Ballpark in Arlington)
Miguel Cabrera
Victor Martinez (still a stud, but not a huge HR threat anymore and carries injury issues around)
Torii Hunter (also still a stud, but 39 and holding off father time)
Alex Avila (has been below average hitter in 3 of 4 full seasons)
Nick Castellanos (rookie projected to be a .260/15 hitter, likely with slightly below average D at 3B)
Jose Iglesias (hit .303 as a rookie, surprising everyone, based on a .356 BABIP his history suggests is NOT sustainable)
Andy Dirks/Rajai Davis platoon (I actually like this platoon a lot. Very strong duo.)

That lineup is not nearly as deep or as productive as it was a year ago. Just no way they don't take a step back there.

Then you get to the rotation. Which lost a key contributor (Fister) and is replacing him with a talented question mark (Smyly) and still contains the enigmatic Rick Hoche... Porcello. Who showed a good K rate in 2013 for the first time (7.22/9 after a career spent as a 5/9 guy) and still was no more than a solid No. 5 starter.

And finally, the big 3. Scherzer and Sanchez both had the best years of their career in 2013. It's possible they have both figured things out and taken them to the next level, but it's more likely they simply had career seasons and will come back down to their normal performance level a little bit.

Scherzer, for example, posted a .259 BABIP, a figure that is a little more than 20 percent lower than his career BABIP entering the season. The only other peripheral of Scherzer's that showed significant change in performance in 2013 was his Hits Allowed. Looks like a BABIP blip that will probably correct itself this year, to me.

Anibal Sanchez had a very fine year. He reached a record high K rate and saw his HR/FB rate cut nearly in half. All other peripherals basically in line... he just gave up 9 HR instead of the 20 he had the two previous seasons. Normalize the HR, and you're talking about a half point on his ERA right there, and probably a little bit more (as those likely would not all be solo shots).

And then there's Verlander. He wasn't quite himself in 2013 and likely takes a step back towards normal Verlander in 2014... but overall, the Tigers LIKELY get less from these three than was received in 2013.

Great post but I have to ask: are you Rany Jayzerli?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Great post but I have to ask: are you Rany Jayzerli?

I wish. I'm not generating doctor-level cash (though I do OK).

One more thing to add:

The Tigers underperformed their Pythag (which basically figures projected wins based on runs scored vs. runs allowed) by 6 wins last year (93 vs. 99).

Just spitballing, I think their lineup produces about 40 fewer runs this years and allows 40 more. Just that small difference drops their Pythag figure 9-10 wins.

Of course, that's all "on paper" and subject to fate/luck/real life, but it definitely makes the idea of catching Detroit for the division seem like a much more reachable goal.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Great post but I have to ask: are you Rany Jayzerli?

Duncan is more optimistic than Rany as of late.

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/



So let it go. Santana will sign elsewhere, the Royals will get a nice draft pick for their troubles, and they’ll have money to spend elsewhere.

That is, if David Glass will spend it. What bothers me the most about ownership spending this winter is that if they don’t spend the savings they got from Guthrie’s reworking of his deal (or if they’ve, in essence, already spent it), then his restructured deal benefits neither the team nor the fans, but only Glass’s pocketbook. Because in two years, the Royals will count the $3.2 million that they now owe Guthrie in 2016 as part of the team’s payroll, and factor it in when they say they can’t spend any more money. But today, when they’re reaping the savings from the restructured deal, they’re keeping quiet.

I think David Glass wants to win. But I think he wants to make money more. Which is kind of sad, because he has plenty of the latter and precious little of the former.


Ouch....

[Strongside]

Been sitting here watching highlights from last year. So pumped for baseball.

[Prison Bitch]

I think Cabrera's body might be wearing out, he was really dragging in the post-season. As great as he is I don't know why he is assured to put out triple crown numbers forever. Pujols fell off the map, hopefully it happens to Cabrera this year. Like you, I found their entire offseason plan to be puzzling.

[Coach]

This one would have been more appropriate for this year.....

[Coach]

And on a side note, I'm surprised that Bronson Arroyo is still on the market. I figured a team would have snatched him up, since more than likely he'd be cheaper than Ubaldo and Ervin, and he doesn't cost a draft pick.....

[SPchief]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I think Cabrera's body might be wearing out, he was really dragging in the post-season. As great as he is I don't know why he is assured to put out triple crown numbers forever. Pujols fell off the map, hopefully it happens to Cabrera this year. Like you, I found their entire offseason plan to be puzzling.

He won't fall off this year. He won't put up triple crown numbers, but he'll still be a beast at the plate. But I do see him fading away fast though.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

Duncan is more optimistic than Rany as of late.

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/



So let it go. Santana will sign elsewhere, the Royals will get a nice draft pick for their troubles, and they’ll have money to spend elsewhere.

That is, if David Glass will spend it. What bothers me the most about ownership spending this winter is that if they don’t spend the savings they got from Guthrie’s reworking of his deal (or if they’ve, in essence, already spent it), then his restructured deal benefits neither the team nor the fans, but only Glass’s pocketbook. Because in two years, the Royals will count the $3.2 million that they now owe Guthrie in 2016 as part of the team’s payroll, and factor it in when they say they can’t spend any more money. But today, when they’re reaping the savings from the restructured deal, they’re keeping quiet.

I think David Glass wants to win. But I think he wants to make money more. Which is kind of sad, because he has plenty of the latter and precious little of the former.


Ouch....

I think there's more than enough money there to go get Santana or one more player of that salary level... but it's really hard to say with any certainty how much money is a windfall from the increased pay out.

I think it's easy for all of us to "Clay Travis" the money and overlook some costs (since the owners won't disclose them).

I want them to spend more... Dayton Moore has repeatedly said Glass has always approved money that will improve the club, and Glass has always said he will go over budget to get a player that is the final piece.

Would seem to make the Santana signing something that SHOULD happen.

Don't get Rany's hang up on Phil Hughes, though. LIke him, I was a big fan of getting Hughes on a short-term, less risky deal to see if getting away from Yankee stadium could make him a higher performer. But it's not like we're talking about a guy that was a monster away from Yankee Stadium... his career splits show him at 4.10 ERA with 305 Ks in 375 2/3 IP and a whip around 1.25.

Worth taking a gamble on with little to no risk... but three years at $8 million per? When the guy also is not proven to be durable?

At least with Vargas you know he's going to give you 200 IP of around league average pitching.